FXUS65 KLKN 251011
 AFDLKN
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
 211 AM PST WED NOV 25 2009
 
 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
 THANKSGIVING. A COUPLE COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA
 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
 BEGINNING SUNDAY USHERING IN DRIER CONDITIONS.
 &&
 
 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS OVER
 WASHINGTON STATE CRESTING THE CURRENT RIDGE D0MINATING THE WEST
 ATTM. A FEW CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN ON IR BRUSHING EXTREME NORTHEAST
 ELKO COUNTY. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES.
 
 FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM MODELS. AGREEMENT HOLDS FOR
 RIDGE LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THEN DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH
 THE ADVANCE OF THE FIRST OF TWO SHORTWAVE LOWS BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRY
 CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL REMOVE MINIMAL
 POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD. WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BEGIN
 FRIDAY...THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE SHOWING A DEEPER AND SLIGHTLY
 SLOWER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS. THESE TWO DEEPER SOLUTIONS WOULD
 INDICATE A LATER START TO SNOWFALL...AFTERNOON. GFS SUPPLIES SOME
 FAINT QPF BEFORE MIDDAY FRIDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. THE CURRENT
 FORECAST DEPICTS THIS HOWEVER WILL OPT TO SPLIT THE
 MORNING/AFTERNOON PERIODS TO BETTER REFLECT THE TIMING FRIDAY...A
 SMALLER CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MORNING. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL
 BE A WARM SURGE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TEMPERATURES WILL
 LIKELY SPIKE TO AROUND 50 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS. THIS WILL
 LEND ITSELF TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE THE COOLER AIR
 DESCENDS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING
 ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS REACHING INTO THE
 30S. WIND GUSTS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY COULD EXCEED
 40 MPH IN CENTRAL NEVADA.
 
 .LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LONG TERM PERIOD 
 BEGINS WITH SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE GREAT BASIN THIS 
 WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE DETAILS OF THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER ARE STILL 
 TO BE DETERMINED. A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW 
 SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. QPF 
 AMOUNTS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE...SO EXPECTING LITTLE TO NO SNOW
 ACCUMULATION. AFTER THAT...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING 
 DRY/QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF 
 NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEK AND A 
 LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. NIGHTS WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD.
 &&
 
 .AVIATION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE 
 NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA OVER THE NEXT 24 HR PERIOD. VFR 
 CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL TAF SITES.
 &&
 
 .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 NONE.
 &&
 
 
 
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