FXUS66 KLOX 250553
 AFDLOX
 
 SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
 950 PM PST TUE NOV 24 2009
 
 ...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...
 
 .SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
 THANKSGIVING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
 FRIDAY...BRINGING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND
 SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF OFFSHORE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE
 WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 
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 .UPDATE...SURFACE GRADIENTS INITIALIZED WELL THIS EVENING WITH THE
 00Z NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS. GRADIENTS ARE STILL MODERATE TO STRONG
 OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND WILL TIGHTEN A BIT FURTHER TONIGHT. A
 WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN PUSHING SOUTH BENEATH THE RIDGE
 OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING. WEAK
 SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY NOT PUSH INTO THE AREA UNTIL AFTER WEDNESDAY
 EVENING. 00Z NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS HAVE STRENGTHENED THE THERMAL AND
 WIND SUPPORT FOR CURRENT EVENT...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z
 WEDNESDAY. SOME CONCERN EXISTS THAT HIGH WIND WARNING GUSTS COULD
 DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. 00Z NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS ARE TIGHTENING
 THERMAL GRADIENTS AT 850 MB AND 950 MB...WITH 40 KNOTS OF WINDS AT
 850 MB AND 45 KNOTS AT 950 MB. BEST GUESS IS TO PROCEED WITH
 CAUTION AS NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT OF LATE...MUCH
 WEAKER LAST NIGHT THAN WHAT ACTUALLY OCCURRED...AND NOW MUCH
 STRONGER. ALL OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE THE STATUS
 QUO...WINDY CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE. FOR THE
 CURRENT TIME...THE PACKAGE WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT.
 
 OTHERWISE...MEAN RIDGE PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT
 LEAST THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH THE WARMEST DAYS LIKELY BEING
 WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. MUCH DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE
 THERMAL TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE.
 
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 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM PST TUE NOV 24 2009/ 
 
 SHORT TERM...AS THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND EASTERN PAC
 WEAKENS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL
 PAC...WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ASHORE FRI. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
 MOVE ASHORE FRI AND TEMPERATURES WILL COOL 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
 SEASONAL NORMAL AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. WILL CONTINUE DRY OVER
 THE ENTIRE AREA FRI.
 
 LONG TERM...COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
 SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
 PRECIPITATION IN THE VICINITY OF CUDDY VALLEY SAT. THERE IS A
 CHANCE MOISTURE...REMNANT FROM THE FRONT...CONSOLIDATES AND
 ASCENDS ALONG THE SLOPES ADJACENT TO NORTHERN VENTURA COUNTY
 MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE MADE LITTLE CHANGES THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW
 LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
 PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PAC NW AND MOVES OVER THE GREAT
 BASIN...THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUN
 MORNING THEN DIMINISH AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS SUN EVENING. GUIDANCE
 WAS CONSISTENT WITH AN HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDING
 NORTH AND CENTERED OVER THE PAC NW. LOWER THAN NORMAL MID LEVEL
 HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WHILE THE RIDGE
 BUILDS NORTH AND UPPER MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
 OVER THE AREA TUE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM TO SEVERAL
 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SUN WITH LITTLE CHANGES THROUGH TUE.
 
 &&
 
 .AVIATION...
 
 25/0550Z.
 
 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL WIND 
 SHEAR AT KBUR AND KVNY.
 
 KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.
 
 KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF. PERIODS OF MDT TURBC SFC-070 AND 
 LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
 
 &&
 
 .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
 
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 SYNOPSIS...RAT
 PUBLIC...HALL/30
 AVIATION...ASR
 
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