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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS66 KLOX 251058
 AFDLOX
 
 SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
 300 AM PST WED NOV 25 2009
 
 .SYNOPSIS...
 
 WARM AND DRY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING. 
 A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING
 NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY
 AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER ROUND OF OFFSHORE WINDS WILL 
 ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
 
 &&
 
 .SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
 GRADIENTS MODERATELY OFFSHORE AND VERY SIMILAR TO YDYS VALUES. 
 OFFSHORE WINDS HOWEVER ARE ABOUT 10 MPH LESS THAN YDY AND NOT AS 
 WIDESPREAD. THIS IS DUE TO THE LACK OF COLD AIR ADVECTION WHICH WAS 
 PRESENT YDY. THUS TODAYS WINDS WILL BE MORE TYPICAL FOLLOWING THE 
 DIURNAL PRESSURE CYCLE...PEAKING AROUND 8 AM AND THEN DECREASING 
 FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WIND ADVISORIES ARE DOING WELL IN THE 
 MTNS...BUT NOT SO MUCH ELSEWHERE. EXPECT MINIMAL ADVISORY WINDS IN 
 ALL ADVISORY AREAS AFTER SUNRISE BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF 
 ADVISORIES ARE TAKEN DOWN AROUND NOON TODAY. ALL TEMPS UP A FEW 
 DEGREES TODAY WITH NO COLD AIR TO CONTEND WITH.
 
 LOOK FOR A COOL TO COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH MUCH LESS WINDS 
 EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MOUNTAINS. THE VERY DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR 
 RAPID COOLING AND MANY AREAS WILL SEE MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL LOWS. 
 MIN TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE FEW BREEZY 
 LOCATIONS.
 
 THANKSGIVING LOOKS LIKE A GREAT DAY. SUNNY SKIES EVERYWHERE. THERE 
 WILL BE SOME MORNING CANYON BREEZES BUT NOTHING TOO STRONG. MAX 
 TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH A FEW COASTAL AND 
 VLY LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH 80 DEGREES.
 
 THINGS CHANGE QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL 
 TROF APPROACH THE AREA. THE FRONT IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY 
 FCST AND WILL NOT BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO CREATE ANY LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF 
 POINT CONCEPTION. THERE SHOULD STILL BE SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE 
 CENTRAL COAST.
 
 THE MAIN THING FRIDAY WILL BE THE DROP IN TEMPS. HGTS FALL AND 
 OFFSHORE FLOW FLIPS TO ONSHORE. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP ANYWHERE FROM 5 
 TO 15 DEGREES.
 
 .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...
 NAM SOLN FOR SATURDAY IS VERY DIFFERENT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND WHILE 
 GFS HAS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS RUNS THE NEW EC IS TRENDING 
 TOWARDS THE NAN SOLN. GFS FORECAST CONTINUES WITH PROGRESSIVE TROF 
 MOVING OVER THE AREA. BRINGING COOLER TEMPS AND NORTH WINDS TO THE 
 I-5 CORRIDOR AND THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AS WELL AS BANKING UP SOME LOW 
 CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPES. WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS AS THE 
 OFFICIAL FORECAST BUT MUST MENTION THAT THE NAM AND EC NOW FORECAST 
 THE TROF TO PINCH OFF AN UPPER LOW WHICH THEN DROPS STRAIGHT SOUTH 
 OVER L.A. COUNTY BRINGING WITH IT CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN.
 
 BOTH THE EC AND GFS BEGIN TO AGREE AGAIN SUNDAY AS BOTH BRING A 
 RIDGE INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH A GOOD OFFSHORE PUSH. HGTS ARE PRETTY 
 LOW SO DESPITE THE OFFSHORE FLOW TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE.
 
 BREEZY AND WARMER MONDAY AS OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES AND HGTS RISE UP 
 TO 576 DM.
 
 TUESDAY LOOKS PRETTY NONDESCRIPT THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE 
 OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS CONSIDERABLE. AS IT LOOKS NOW IT SHOULD BE A 
 PLEASANT DAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.
 
 &&
 
 .AVIATION...
 
 25/1100Z.
 
 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES. PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL WIND 
 SHEAR AT KBUR AND KVNY.
 
 KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF
 
 KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF. PERIODS OF MDT TURBC SFC-070 AND 
 LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
 
 
 &&
 
 .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
 HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX)
 
 &&
 
 

 
 PUBLIC...RORKE
 AVIATION...KAPLAN
 SYNOPSIS...RAT
 
 WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
 
 
 

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