Current Version                Previous Version:  1  2  3  4  5  

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS66 KEKA 031110
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
410 AM PDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER MOSTLY
COOL AND CLOUDY DAY ALONG THE COAST. LIGHT INSTABILITY AT MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WITH WARM TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL PROMOTE
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON OVER TRINITY ALPS AND YOLLA
BOLLY MOUNTAINS TODAY BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE NORTH COAST ON MONDAY AND
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE...BUT AT THIS TIME STANDARD COVECTIVE
INDICIES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AND ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. FLOW WILL ALSO BE
OUT OF THE WEST WHICH TYPICALLY IS NOT A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR
ENHANCED DEVELOPMENT. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
PRETTY DARN DRY WITH ONLY A LITTLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BUT THIS
IS STILL UNCERTAIN. THUS POPS WERE ADJUSTED TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO NORMS WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE AND BELOW CLIMO WITH THE
DEVELOPING RIDGE NEXT WEEKEND. KML/JT


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT KUKI THROUGH MONDAY. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT KCEC THROUGH THIS MORNING DUE TO CLOUDINESS AND PATCHY
FOG REDUCING CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT KCEC THIS AFTERNOON. VFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT KACV EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS AND/OR
VISIBILITIES. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AT KACV.


&&

.MARINE...AN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
TODAY RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. HOWEVER
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS ON
MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS MONDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS AND SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE WATERS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.



&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ450.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ470.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ475.

&&




VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA