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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS66 KEKA 162134
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
234 PM PDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND TO THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE COAST CAN EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES UNTIL STRATUS AND FOG
RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST
BROUGHT WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA TODAY. WARMER INTERIOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD
LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL, SO NO ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED. BY
FRIDAY MORNING, MODELS HINT THAT STRATUS AND FOG MAY RETURN TO THE
COAST, ESPECIALLY HUMBOLDT BAY AND THE EEL RIVER DELTA. HOWEVER,
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AND STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE MIGHT PREVENT THIS.
EVEN WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY, KEPT THE ONGOING FORECAST. BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THOUGH, ON SATURDAY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
DETACH FROM A PASSING SHORTWAVE WELL TO OUR NORTH AND GRADUALLY
SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS MEANDERING IMPULSE MAY
BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK DURING THAT TIME PERIOD,
THE VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOWN IN THE MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE
SREF, AND THE LIMITED MOISTURE, FEEL THE SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINS
ACROSS TRINITY AND INTERIOR MENDOCINO COUNTIES. WILL KEEP WATCHING
TO SEE IF THE THREAT INCREASES OR TURNS INTO MORE OF A CUMULUS
ONLY SCENARIO. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
THE MODELS ARE STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE REGARDING WHAT EXACTLY
WILL HAPPEN. IN A VERY BROAD SENSE, A SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ALONG THE BASE OF A LARGE AND NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW
LOCATED IN THE BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALASKA, AND AS IT APPROACHES
CANADA AND THE CONUS IT WILL ELONGATE AND BREAK APART INTO ONE OR
MORE CUTOFF LOWS. THESE SYSTEMS WILL THEN IMPACT THE CALIFORNIA
COAST STARTING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING BEYOND THAT. HOW MUCH RAIN
WE GET IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE
MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THE SITUATION. KEPT THE LONG TERM
POPS UNCHANGED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT KCEC, KACV AND KUKI THROUGH THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT AT KCEC, KACV AND KUKI. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT KCEC, KACV AND KUKI ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY TODAY AS THE THERMAL
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SHIFTED SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE THIS MORNING
WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE THERMAL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH SHIFTED INLAND. THEREFORE THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER THE WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN NEAR SHORE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...NONE.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PZZ450-455-470-475.

&&




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