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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KSLC 192142
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
342 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY)...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH SPINNING OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BROUGHT SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING OUT AHEAD OF IT. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH
THAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH HAS LIMITED WARMING OF THE AIRMASS
TODAY...AND TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE QUITE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS
OBSERVED YESTERDAY.

THE CALIFORNIA TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA OUT AHEAD OF IT.
THIS WILL START THE WARMING TREND UP AGAIN...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH WILL
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A BIT OF TERRAIN BASED CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BY WEDNESDAY...THIS TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE IN A
WEAKENED STATE...PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN FROM ROUGHLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS RELATED TO HOW SEVERAL
TROUGHS INTERACT WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND
JUST HOW THE EVOLUTION OF THE SPLITTING TROUGHS OCCURS. AT THIS
POINT...RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY REMAINS POOR. IT
IS DIFFICULT TO FOCUS ON ANY ONE FEATURE WITH ANY REAL
SKILL/CERTAINTY. OVERALL...EXPECT A PATTERN THAT FEATURES INCREASING
THREAT OF CONVECTION AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE WEST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. PREVIOUS FORECAST
HANDLED THIS PATTERN WELL. ADJUSTED SEVERAL POP GRIDS A BIT HIGHER
GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...BUT OTHERWISE THE MAIN MESSAGE HAS
REMAINED THE SAME.

&&

.AVIATION...WEST NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE
SLC TERMINAL INTO THE EVENING...SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH BETWEEN 02-
04Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&




SHORT TERM...TRAPHAGAN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)