AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KMSO 100302
 AFDMSO
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
 802 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2010
 
 .UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION AND FINE
 TUNED THE WORDING FOR SNOW FLURRY CHANCES OVERNIGHT.
 
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 .DISCUSSION...A THICK STRATUS DECK APPEARS LOCKED INTO THE
 NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS EVENING AS VISIBLE ON INFRARED SATELLITE
 IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
 ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT LIFTING ATTRIBUTED TO A WEAK SHORT WAVE
 PASSING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD CLOUDY
 CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERSISTENT
 TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH VALUES NEAR OR EXACTLY THE SAME AS WHAT
 HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCED THE PREVIOUS TWO OR THREE DAYS.
 
 HAVE ALSO DECREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHWEST
 MONTANA AND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WHILE MAINTAINING THE
 ISOLATED MENTION OF FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST. BELIEVE MOST
 LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA WILL EXPERIENCE BRIEF PERIODS
 OF FLURRIES DURING THE NIGHT BUT NO ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL NOR
 PROLONGED BOUTS WITH PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED. SUBSEQUENT
 CHANGES WERE MADE TO BRING CLOUDY MENTION TO THE FORECAST
 OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
 
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 .AVIATION...LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN
 MONTANA AND CENTRAL IDAHO OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO CAUSE
 MANY MOUNTAINS PEAKS TO BECOME OBSCURED. DUE TO SOME ATMOSPHERIC
 MODIFICATION IN THE MOISTURE PROFILE TODAY NEAR KBTM AT THIS TIME
 DO NOT BELIEVE FOG WILL BE OF GREAT CONCERN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
 HOWEVER A LOWERING STRATUS DECK IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
 EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
 
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 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2010/ 
 
 DISCUSSION...A STRATUS DECK PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
 MONTANA AND CENTRAL IDAHO...EXCEPT IN BUTTE AREA AND SOUTHERN
 LEMHI COUNTY WHERE THEY ARE UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THE STRATUS DECK
 IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT IN WESTERN MONTANA WHILE
 PATCHY FOG IS ONCE AGAIN ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHWEST
 MONTANA AND THE BUTTE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A
 SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE GENERAL FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT
 WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. STAY TUNED FOR POTENTIAL
 UPDATES. SATELLITE INDICATES SOME ENHANCEMENT ACROSS NORTHWEST
 MONTANA WHERE FLURRIES ARE OCCURRING. THIS ENHANCEMENT AND FLURRIES
 ARE MOVING SLOW AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING.
 
 WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE ANTICIPATED MUCH OF THE DAY UNDER A
 LIGHT FLOW ALOFT. CLOUDY SKIES UNDER THE LOW STRATUS DECK WILL
 PERSIST WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS OR
 FLURRIES. LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY A SHORT WAVE
 WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS IS A STRONGER WAVE. AN
 INCREASING UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WITH WESTERLY WINDS WILL AID IN
 SUFFICIENT OROGRAPHIC LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
 MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER A 24-36 HOUR PERIOD. THE LOWER
 LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN UP ON THURSDAY.  THIS WILL
 PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS OF WESTERN MONTANA.
 LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS. 
 
 FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL EXPERIENCE A
 SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WITH BRIEF RIDGING PERIODS. THERE ARE ENOUGH
 DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED MODELS THAT DETERMINING THE TIMING OF
 ANY SYSTEM REMAINS DIFFICULT. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
 IN THE FORECAST FOR EACH DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A LITTLE
 ABOVE NORMAL.
 
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 .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 MT...NONE.
 ID...NONE.
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 $$
 
 SHORT TERM...DICKERSON
 LONG TERM....RPN/KOLATA 
 AVIATION...DICKERSON