AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS66 KLOX 221136
 AFDLOX
 
 SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
 330 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2009
 
 .SYNOPSIS...
 
 TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. ON 
 MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA AND OFFSHORE 
 FLOW WILL ESTABLISH...QUICKLY WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL 
 NORMALS. WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY 
 THROUGH THANKSGIVING...BRINGING THE AREA WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
 
 &&
 
 .SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...
 SKIES ARE CLEAR TODAY EXCEPT ON THE NORTH SLOPES AND THE CUYAMA VLY 
 WHERE NORTH WINDS HAVE BANKED UP SOME LOW CLOUDS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER 
 OR TWO MAY BE PRESENT IN THESE CLOUDS. WINDS THE BIG CONCERN TODAY 
 CURRENT WINDS ARE A BIT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT A SECOND SHOT OF 
 COLD AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS FORECAST LATER TODAY AND THIS SHOULD BE 
 ALL THAT`S NEEDED FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR 
 AND THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST/SANTA YNEZ RANGE. THE WINDS OVER 
 THE VTA AND LA MTNS WILL TURN NE MONDAY MORNING AND THERE WILL 
 LIKELY BE ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS FROM THIS DIRECTION SO THE ADVISORY 
 THERE GOES TO 1000 AM MONDAY WHILE THE SBA SOUTH COAST WIND ADVISORY 
 ENDS WITH THE DEMISE OF THE NORTH WINDS AROUND 300 AM MONDAY. TEMPS 
 TODAY WILL BE COOL...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS WITH ONLY 
 562 DM THKNS.
 
 A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT 
 THE SURFACE A DECENT HIGH BUILDS INTO NEVADA AND SETS UP NE FLOW 
 THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND WILL QUICKLY WARM 
 TEMPS UP FROM TODAYS COOLER VALUES. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN 
 OFFSHORE FLOW EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST 
 NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH VALUES FLIRTING 
 WITH ADVISORY LEVELS.
 
 THE RIDGE AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO THE 
 AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE INTERIOR SECTIONS WILL SEE TEMPS 
 A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BUT THE COASTS AND VLYS WILL SEE A MUCH 
 BETTER JUMP UP IN TEMPS DUE TO THE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING ASSOCIATED 
 WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. TUE AND WED SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAYS FOE 
 THE NEXT SEVEN.
 
 .LONG TERM (THU-SAT)...
 BOTH THE GFS AND THE EC AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN 
 THANKSGIVING. THE EC IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE AND BRINGS IN A FULL ON 
 TROF TO SO CAL WHILE THE GFS MERELY FLATTENS THE RIDGE OUT. WILL LET 
 THE MDLS SLUG IT OUT FOR A FEW MORE RUNS BEFORE ALTERING THE 
 FORECAST TOWARDS EITHER SOLN. THE BIG THING IS THAT THE TEMPS WILL 
 COLLAPSE AND THIS IS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
 
 &&
 
 .AVIATION...
 
 22/1130Z.
 
 EXPECT VFR CONDS ACROSS CWA...EXCEPT SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE ERN 
 INTERIOR VALLEYS OF SBA COUNTY AND THE NRN SLOPES OF VTU COUNTY MTNS 
 THIS MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MVFR VSBYS ACROSS PORTIONS OF 
 THE LA COAST THROUGH 17Z AS WELL. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP 
 TODAY CAUSING SOME LLWS NEAR KSBA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE 
 OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR TONIGHT...VFR CONDS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS MOST 
 OF THE CWA...EXCEPT BETTER CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING 
 ACROSS THE SLO INTERIOR VALLEYS AS SOME CLOUD COVER GETS PUSHED 
 WESTWARD FROM THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.
 
 KLAX...EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS THROUGH 
 17Z. 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AFTER 09Z TONIGHT.
 
 KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
 
 &&
 
 .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
 GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
 HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
 
 &&
 
 $$
 
 PUBLIC...RORKE
 AVIATION...KAPLAN
 SYNOPSIS...DMG
 
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