AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS66 KMTR 210449
 AFDMTR
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA CA
 850 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009
 
 .DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:50 PM PST FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
 THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY HAD NEARLY EXITED OUR FORECAST AREA
 BY EARLY EVENING AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
 NEVADA SOUTHWEST THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MONTEREY COUNTY. A FEW
 WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE COOL AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
 AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY ENDED IN THE NORTH
 BAY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO END ELSEWHERE BY MIDNIGHT AS A DRIER AND
 MORE STABLE AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
 CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WITH A WET GROUND THERE LIKELY WILL BE SOME
 LATE NIGHT FOG...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF SAN FRANCISCO. A FORECAST
 UPDATE WAS ISSUED EARLIER IN THE EVENING TO REMOVE EARLY THUNDERSTORM
 CHANCES AND TO ADD PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS.
 
 RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WERE MOSTLY LIGHT...WITH LOCALLY MODERATE
 AMOUNTS IN THE NORTH BAY. HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WERE IN THE NORTH
 BAY MOUNTAINS WERE LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH FELL. IN GENERAL...RAINFALL
 TOTALS IN THE NORTH BAY RANGED FROM A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
 INCH. ELSEWHERE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE MOSTLY LESS THAN A
 QUARTER OF AN INCH EXCEPT IN THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS WHERE AS MUCH
 AS A HALF INCH FELL. MOST OF THE RAIN-SHELTERED VALLEYS FROM SANTA
 CLARA COUNTY SOUTHWARD ONLY PICKED UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
 
 SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR
 TO FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER TODAY. PEAK WIND GUSTS OF BETWEEN 40 AND
 50 MPH WERE COMMON IN THE HILLS OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA AS
 WELL AS AT A FEW OF THE WINDIER SPOTS NEAR SEA LEVEL.
 
 FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...TODAY`S RAINFALL WILL PROBABLY BE THE
 LAST FOR A WHILE. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES A DRY PATTERN RETURNING
 THIS WEEKEND AND FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL. THERE ARE...
 HOWEVER...SOME EXCEPTIONS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PAC
 NW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MAY PRODUCE BRIEF LIGHT
 PRECIP IN THE NORTH BAY ON SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE 12Z
 ECWMF AND 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BOTH INDICATE THAT A FAST-MOVING
 FRONT MAY CLIP THE NORTH BAY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN LATE ON
 THANKSGIVING DAY. BUT IN BETWEEN SUNDAY MORNING AND LATE THURSDAY AN
 UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
 DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
 
 &&
 
 .AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 PM PST FRIDAY...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH
 THE SF BAY AREA WITH WINDS NOW WESTERLY. GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE
 THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS GOOD CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT
 WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING
 TONIGHT TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH NO LOW CEILINGS.
 HOWEVER STS COULD GET SOME EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG.
 
 VICINITY OF KSFO...MOSTLY SCT CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY EXCEPT FOR
 A POSSIBLE SHOWER THROUGH 03Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
 ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z.
 
 KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...ROUGHLY THE SAME AS KSFO.
 
 MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...BACK EDGE OF FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH.
 CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BECOME SCT AFTER 02Z WITH LIGHT RAIN TAPERING
 OFF. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND MRY THROUGH AROUND
 MIDNIGHT.
 
 &&
 
 
 .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
      .TNGT...SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...PT ARENA TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS
           ...SCA FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS
 
 
 $$
 
 PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA
 AVIATION/MARINE: SSA/W PI
 
 NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO