AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KVEF 101430
 AFDVEF
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
 630 AM PST WED FEB 10 2010
 
 .SYNOPSIS...A COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY 
 SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS TODAY BEFORE MOVING AWAY TONIGHT. GENERALLY DRY 
 WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED FROM TOMORROW THROUGH 
 EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 &&
 
 .UPDATE...SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS WARMING AND BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED 
 OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...AND AREA RADARS SHOW DIMINISHING RETURNS 
 AS WELL. 12Z NAM12 GENERATES MUCH LESS PRECIP OVER THE WINTER 
 WEATHER ADVISORY AREA THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN...WHICH CORRELATES WELL 
 WITH SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. THUS...CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER 
 ADVISORY AND REDUCED TODAYS POPS SOME MORE. NO CHANGES BEYOND THE 
 FIRST PERIOD.
 &&
 
 .PREV DISCUSSION...
 331 AM PST WED FEB 10 2010
 
 .SHORT TERM...SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED THE LOW CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES 
 WEST OF SAN DIEGO AT 145 AM AND STILL MOVING DUE SOUTH...ALTHOUGH 
 WATER VAPOR LOOP SUGGESTED THE EASTWARD TURN WOULD BEGIN SOON. THE 
 LOW TRACK ENDED UP BEING EVEN FARTHER SOUTHWEST THAN YESTERDAYS 
 MODEL RUNS...WHICH WERE FARTHER SOUTHWEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. RADAR 
 SHOWED PRECIP ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM OLANCHA TO LAS VEGAS TO 
 KINGMAN. INDIVIDUAL ELEMENTS WERE ROTATING NORTHWEST ON THE 
 PERIPHERY OF THE LOW CENTER...BUT THE ENTIRE AREA WAS BEING ERODED 
 AWAY FROM THE NORTH DUE TO DRY AIR WORKING ITS WAY IN AS THE LOW 
 MOVED FARTHER SOUTH. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY...SO EXPECT 
 PRECIP TO BE CONFINED MORE OR LESS SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 15 THIS 
 MORNING...AND CONTINUED EROSION FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. 
 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE DEATH VALLEY MOUNTAINS WAS ALLOWED 
 TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 4 AM. ADVISORY FOR SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY 
 WILL BE LEFT IN PLACE FOR NOW AS CHP REPORTED HEAVY SNOW ON MOUNTAIN 
 PASS EARLIER ALONG WITH A WRECKED BIG RIG /PRESUMABLY DUE TO THE 
 SNOW/. THE WARNING FOR THE CLARK COUNTY MOUNTAINS IS A QUESTION MARK 
 AT THIS TIME AS THE PRECIP MAY REMAIN SOUTH OF THERE THIS MORNING. 
 WILL REEVALUATE THIS ISSUE AS THE MORNING GOES ON...AND MAY BE ABLE 
 TO CANCEL IT EARLY. THE LAST DREGS OF THE PRECIP WILL DEPART THE 
 SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR CWFA TONIGHT...AND DRY WEATHER WILL TAKE 
 HOLD AS A RIDGE FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. 
 TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY.
 
 .LONG TERM...STILL LOOKING FOR RIDGING TO BE THE DOMINANT FACT FOR 
 THE EXTENDED. MODELS DO WANT TO SHOW A WAVE FLATTENING THE TOP OF 
 THE RIDGE LATE TUESDAY AND INTO DAY 8 WEDNESDAY BUT IS TOO FAR NORTH 
 TO BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE CWA. DID BUMP TEMPERATURES 
 UP A LITTLE TO BE CLOSER TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE 
 NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED.
 
 .AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...CEILINGS WILL VARY IN THE 4500-6000 
 FOOT RANGE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE STORM THAT HAS 
 BROUGHT THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL BE TRACKING INTO NORTHWEST 
 MEXICO TODAY AND THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE SOUTH WITH 
 IT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A RAIN 
 SHOWER TO PASS OVER KLAS THOUGH LATE MORNING AND BRING CEILINGS TO 
 THE 3000 FOOT LEVEL BRIEFLY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE 
 AFTERNOON AND SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF 
 THE WEEK LOOKS TRANQUIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH DRIER 
 CONDITIONS AND LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS.
 
 FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST  
 CALIFORNIA...RAIN AND SUB 3000 FOOT CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THIS 
 MORNING IN SAN BERNARDINO AND SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTIES BEFORE 
 CLEARING SLOWLY LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW 
 BRINGING THE RAIN AND CLOUDS IS OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST 
 AND WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
 TODAY AND DRAG THE RAIN AND LOWER CEILINGS INTO SOUTHERN MOHAVE 
 COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD BE 
 CLEARED OUT BY THURSDAY MORNING.
 &&
 
 .VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 NV...NONE.
 AZ...NONE.
 CA...NONE.
 &&
 
 $$
 
 MORGAN/JACQUES
 
 HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS