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AFDFGZ |
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FXUS65 KFGZ 100913
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
210 AM MST WED FEB 10 2010
.SYNOPSIS...THE CENTER OF A PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST
SONORA MEXICO TODAY AND THEN TO THE EAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS STORM WILL BRUSH THE NORTHLAND. AS A
RESULT...ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM THERE WILL BE A GOOD
CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS. FURTHER
NORTH...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. STARTING THURSDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WITH WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE CENTER OF A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WAS SPINNING JUST
OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/AND NORTHERN BAJA COASTS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH A SOUTHWARD HEADING. OVER THE NEXT 18 TO
24-HOURS THE STORM CENTER WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
BAJA AND THEN INTO NORTHWEST SONORA MEXICO BY 07Z THURSDAY. BY
SUNRISE THURSDAY THE STORM WILL BE ACCELERATING EASTWARD AND
WEAKENING AS IT HEADS OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS CHIHUAHUA MEXICO. THE
PROJECTED STORM TRACK SUGGESTS THAT THE ACCUMULATION OF PRECIP.
NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WILL BE LIGHT TO NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL.
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION AND SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL HOVER AROUND 5000 FEET WITH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY OF 1-2 INCHES OR LESS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHERE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW COULD
ACCUMULATE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE 8000 FEET.
FOR THURSDAY AND HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN SHIFT APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE
FORMING OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND THE MAIN JET STREAM HEADING TO
THE NORTH. THERE WILL STILL BE A THREAT OF A WEAK STORM OR TWO
DIVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA...BUT CURRENT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 14Z AS A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM THROUGH 02Z THURSDAY. ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE RIM. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN THE SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4-5 KFT. PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 04Z THURSDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC.............TC
AVIATION...........MCCOLLUM
VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER
INFORMATION.
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Bellemont, AZ 86015-6057 http://weather.gov/flagstaff
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