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FXUS65 KFGZ 122204
AFDFGZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
300 PM MST SUN FEB 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS SET TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION
RAIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT WEATHER DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA
HEADING EASTWARD DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THIS
EVENING...CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A LITTLE
AFTER SUNSET AND THEN DISSIPATE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND
MUCH OF MONDAY...THERE WILL BE A LULL BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS WITH
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE AREA FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO WESTERN ARIZONA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING LOCALLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS WILL BE A STRONGER AND COLDER STORM SO THERE
WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL ALSO BE A SMALL AND FAST MOVING STORM WITH THE
BEST UPWARD MOTION MOSTLY OVER UTAH. THE RESULT...PRECIPITATION
TOTALS WILL REMAIN MODEST AT BEST. LOOKS LIKE 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS. THE
COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM CENTER WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO
NEAR THE 4000 FOOT LEVEL ON TUESDAY. THE STORM WILL RAPIDLY EXIT THE
STATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...UNTIL 02-04Z...EXPECT SCT -SHRA/-SHSN
PRODUCING MVFR AND LCL LIFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTH. AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM
WILL SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SFC WINDS WILL BE SW 10-20G25 KTS.
AFTER 02-04Z...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS AND WINDS DECREASING TO
SW 5-10 KTS...HOWEVER...ISOLD -SHSN WILL PERSIST WITH IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. AFTER 18Z MONDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SW10-20G20-30
KTS. SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER AT 2-5 KFT AGL AND ISOLD -SHSN/-SHRA WILL
CONTINUE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...ONTON
FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.
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