AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KFGZ 122204
 AFDFGZ
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
 300 PM MST SUN FEB 12 2012
 
 .SYNOPSIS...
 THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS SET TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA MONDAY 
 NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...COLDER 
 TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION 
 RAIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UNSETTLED 
 WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  
 
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 .DISCUSSION...
 THE CURRENT WEATHER DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST ARIZONA 
 HEADING EASTWARD DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THIS 
 EVENING...CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL A LITTLE 
 AFTER SUNSET AND THEN DISSIPATE. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND 
 MUCH OF MONDAY...THERE WILL BE A LULL BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS WITH 
 JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE AREA FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF 
 SHOWERS. 
 
 LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF WEATHER 
 SYSTEMS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO WESTERN ARIZONA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON 
 BRINGING LOCALLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF 
 SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS 
 NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS WILL BE A STRONGER AND COLDER STORM SO THERE 
 WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION. 
 HOWEVER...THIS WILL ALSO BE A SMALL AND FAST MOVING STORM WITH THE 
 BEST UPWARD MOTION MOSTLY OVER UTAH. THE RESULT...PRECIPITATION 
 TOTALS WILL REMAIN MODEST AT BEST. LOOKS LIKE 1 TO 4 INCHES OF 
 SNOWFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS. THE 
 COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM CENTER WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO 
 NEAR THE 4000 FOOT LEVEL ON TUESDAY. THE STORM WILL RAPIDLY EXIT THE 
 STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. 
 
 FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...COOL AND UNSETTLED 
 WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. 
 
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 .AVIATION...
 FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...UNTIL 02-04Z...EXPECT SCT  -SHRA/-SHSN 
 PRODUCING MVFR AND LCL LIFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN 
 AREAS FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTH. AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM 
 WILL SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SFC WINDS WILL BE SW 10-20G25 KTS. 
 AFTER 02-04Z...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS AND WINDS DECREASING TO 
 SW 5-10 KTS...HOWEVER...ISOLD -SHSN WILL PERSIST WITH IFR CONDITIONS 
 POSSIBLE. AFTER 18Z MONDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SW10-20G20-30 
 KTS. SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER AT 2-5 KFT AGL AND ISOLD -SHSN/-SHRA WILL 
 CONTINUE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
 
 
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 .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
 
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 PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM
 AVIATION...ONTON
 
 FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
 WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.