AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KFGZ 100913
 AFDFGZ
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
 210 AM MST WED FEB 10 2010
 
 .SYNOPSIS...THE CENTER OF A PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST 
 SONORA MEXICO TODAY AND THEN TO THE EAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE 
 NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS STORM WILL BRUSH THE NORTHLAND. AS A 
 RESULT...ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM THERE WILL BE A GOOD 
 CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS. FURTHER 
 NORTH...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. STARTING THURSDAY...HIGH 
 PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WITH WARMER 
 DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH THE UPCOMING 
 HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
 
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 .DISCUSSION...THE CENTER OF A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WAS SPINNING JUST 
 OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/AND NORTHERN BAJA COASTS EARLY THIS 
 MORNING...WITH A SOUTHWARD HEADING. OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 
 24-HOURS THE STORM CENTER WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN 
 BAJA AND THEN INTO NORTHWEST SONORA MEXICO BY 07Z THURSDAY. BY 
 SUNRISE THURSDAY THE STORM WILL BE ACCELERATING EASTWARD AND 
 WEAKENING AS IT HEADS OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS CHIHUAHUA MEXICO. THE 
 PROJECTED STORM TRACK SUGGESTS THAT THE ACCUMULATION OF PRECIP. 
 NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WILL BE LIGHT TO NO PRECIPITATION AT ALL. 
 ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF 
 SHOWERS WITH ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION AND SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE ON 
 THE LIGHT SIDE. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL HOVER AROUND 5000 FEET WITH SNOW 
 ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY OF 1-2 INCHES OR LESS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION 
 WILL BE IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHERE 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW COULD 
 ACCUMULATE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ABOVE 8000 FEET.  
 
 FOR THURSDAY AND HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A LARGE-SCALE 
 PATTERN SHIFT APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE  
 FORMING OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND THE MAIN JET STREAM HEADING TO 
 THE NORTH. THERE WILL STILL BE A THREAT OF A WEAK STORM OR TWO 
 DIVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND ACROSS 
 PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA...BUT CURRENT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT 
 MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE 
 HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. 
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 .AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL 
 BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 14Z AS A LOW 
 PRESSURE CENTER MOVES ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST 
 NUMEROUS SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM THROUGH 02Z THURSDAY. ONLY 
 ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE RIM. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR 
 CONDITIONS IN THE SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4-5 KFT. PATCHY 
 FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 04Z THURSDAY.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT 
 UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
 
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 .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
 
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 $$
 
 PUBLIC.............TC
 AVIATION...........MCCOLLUM
 
 VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER
 INFORMATION.