AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS66 KHNX 100526 AAA
 AFDHNX
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVN SECTION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
 845 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2010
 
 .SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF
 THE FORECAST  AREA...MAINLY KERN COUNTY WHERE MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL
 IMPACT THE PASS LEVEL...THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG WILL
 RETURN TO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING AS HIGH
 PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION.
 
 &&
 
 .UPDATE...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE JUST OFFSHORE WITH WRAP
 AROUND MOISTURE PUSHING INTO THE DISTRICT FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
 WHILE THE PRECIP IS NO LONGER WIDESPREAD...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
 LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW FROM FRESNO COUNTY SOUTH WITH THE BULK OF THE
 PRECIP OVER KERN COUNTY. THEREFORE...WILL ALLOW THE WINTER WEATHER
 PRODUCTS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THIS EVENING AS SNOW WILL LINGER
 THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY...THE UPPER LOW IS
 STILL WEST OF SANTA BARBARA AND DRIFTING SOUTH. THIS POSITION WILL
 KEEP KERN COUNTY ON THE PRECIP ZONE UNTIL JUST AFTER 0400 AM
 PST...AT WHICH TIME SHORT RANGE MODELS PLACE THE UPPER LOW NEAR
 SAN DIEGO. HOWEVER...WILL UPDATE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO
 REMOVE THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS.
 WILL ALSO KEEP THE MENTION OF A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE KERN
 COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE
 CLEARING STARTS AFTER SUNSET. WHILE MERCED MAY SEE SOME SUNSHINE
 ON WEDNESDAY...AREAS CLOSER TO BAKERSFIELD MAY CONTINUE TO SEE
 CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE BANKS UP NEAR THE GRAPEVINE. WILL
 MAKE NO MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.
 
 &&
 
 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2010/ 
 THE UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS PLAINLY VISIBLE ON
 SAT PIX LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LOCATED OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST
 WEST OF CAMBRIA. THE LOW WILL CONT TO THE SSE THIS EVE AND BE NEAR
 SAN DIEGO WED MORNING. BAROCLINIC BAND PRECIP/OCCLUSION ACROSS
 INTERIOR CENT CA HAS BEEN RELATIVELY STATIONARY THE PAST FEW
 HOUR...AND AS DYNAMICS WEAKEN PRECIP IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN. FLOW
 ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY TURN EAST AS UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH. THIS WILL
 BEGIN TO END PRECIP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNITE. FROM FRESNO
 COUNTY NORTH...SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY BE OVER NEAR OR BEFORE
 MIDNIGHT.
 
 OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA...IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER BUT
 LIKELY TO BE OVER BEFORE SUNRISE. THE EXCEPTION BEING THE KERN
 MTNS AND DESERTS...WHERE PRECIP MAY TAPER OFF A BIT THIS EVE...BUT
 ACTUALLY PICK BACK UP AS THE LOW PASSES PT CONCEPTION AND UPPER
 DEFORMATION/EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. SNOWFALL THUS FAR HAS BEEN IN
 THE 3-4 INCH RANGE IN THE CUDDY VALLEY/FRAZIER PARK AREA AND COULD
 SEE AN ADDNL 4-6 BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE. STILL HARD TO TELL
 IF HEAVY SNOW WILL MAKE IT AS FAR EAST IN THE TEHACHAPIS AS
 HIGHWAY 58. DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH UPSLOPE DEVELOPS ON THE EAST AND
 SOUTH FACING SLOPES.
 
 OTHERWISE ACROSS CENTRAL CA...A RATHER BENIGN PATTERN IS SEEN THE
 REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND THRU THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
 WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND OVER THE REGION...AND WHILE TEMPORARILY
 BEING FLATTENED BY A COUPLE OF PAC NW SHORTWAVES...WILL HOLD ITS
 GROUND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THUS LOOK FOR A WARMING
 TREND TO BEGIN THURS AND CONT INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FLY IN THE
 OINTMENT HOWEVER WILL BE HOW MUCH FOG DEVELOPS OR PERSISTS IN THE
 VALLEY EACH NIGHT. 
 
 &&
 
 .AVIATION...
 AS A STORM SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 
 COAST...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH. IN THE 
 SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT SOME LOCAL MVFR IN A FEW 
 LINGERING SHOWERS SOUTH OF FRESNO COUNTY THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY. 
 CLEARING SKIES IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY OVERNIGHT COULD LEAD TO AREAS 
 OF IFR AND SOME LOCAL LIFR IN FOG THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. OVER THE 
 SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS...MVFR TO LCL LIFR DUE TO 
 MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH 18Z 
 WEDNESDAY. IN THE KERN COUNTY DESERT...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT LCL MVFR 
 IN SHRA POSSIBLY MIXED WITH -SN THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE 
 EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR THROUGH 
 06Z THURSDAY.
 
 &&
 
 .AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.
 
 &&
 
 .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL
  10 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS /CAZ097/.
 
  WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR THE KERN
  COUNTY MOUNTAINS /CAZ095/.
 
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 PUBLIC...MOLINA
 AVN/FW...JEB
 SYNOPSIS...BSO
 
 WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD