PROGNOSTIC METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS10 KWNH 240630
 PMDHMD
  
 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
 NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
 130 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
  
 VALID NOV 24/0000 UTC THRU NOV 27/1200 UTC
  
 
 ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
 INGEST...    
 
 
 00Z/24 FINAL MODEL PREFERENCES...INCLUDING THE ECMWF
 
 
 ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE NAM AND GFS DO NOT APPEAR TO
 SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THEIR SOLUTIONS.
 
 
 ...CYCLONE LIFTING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DAY 1...
 
 THE NAM...GFS...GEM GLOBAL...UKMET...AND ECMWF ALL HANDLE THIS
 SYSTEM COMPARABLY.  THE GFS EJECTS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A GRIDSCALE
 FEEDBACK LOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
 EARLY DAY 2.
 
 
 ...COLD FRONT DIVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS DAY 1...
 
 THE NAM...GFS...GEM GLOBAL...UKMET...AND ECMWF ALL HANDLE THIS
 BOUNDARY COMPARABLY.
 
 
 ...CYCLONE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST DAY 3...
 
 THE NAM AND GFS ARE CONSIDERABLY FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
 THE ECMWF WITH THIS LOW.  THE GEM GLOBAL IS THE LEAST DEVELOPED OF
 ALL THE RECENT GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM...SHOWING NARY A WAVE
 ALONG THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION.  THE UKMET IS
 SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS AND THE ECMWF.  THE ECMWF
 HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OF THE CYCLONE FOR
 THREE RUNS NOW...AND BASED ON ITS GENERALLY STRONG
 PERFORMANCE...PREFER TO LEAN IN ITS DIRECTION.
  
 
 ...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
 WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML...
 
 ...500MB FORECASTS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML...
 
 
 CISCO