PROGNOSTIC METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS06 KWBC 232004
 PMDMRD
 PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
 NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD
 300 PM EST MON NOVEMBER 23 2009
 
 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 29 - DEC 03, 2009
 
 TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 
 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICT A 
 TROUGH FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
 CONUS WHILE RIDGING IS INDICATED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. ANOTHER DEEP 
 TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS 
 ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER AND GENERALLY REFLECT THE SAME FEATURES 
 AS THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS RELATIVELY 
 WEAK ANOMALIES OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. THE OFFICIAL BLEND CHART FEATURES NEAR 
 TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS WHILE ABOVE AVERAGE HEIGHTS ARE 
 FORECAST IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. MOST OF THE CONUS 
 IS FORECAST TO HAVE AN ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BASED 
 PRIMARILY ON BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS INDICATED BY THE MANUAL BLEND. IN 
 THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND MOST OF ALASKA, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED 
 UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. ENHANCED 
 PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION EXIST FOR THE GULF COAST REGION TO 
 NEW ENGLAND BENEATH THE EASTERN CONUS FORECAST TROUGH AND ALSO FOR THE SOUTHERN 
 ALASKAN COAST AND PANHANDLE DOWNSTREAM OF THE FORECAST PACIFIC TROUGH. GREATER 
 PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR THE WEST COAST 
 UNDERNEATH THE FORECAST RIDGE. MOST PRECIPITATION TOOLS SUGGEST BELOW MEDIAN 
 PRECIPITATION FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN ALASKA. 
 
 TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 40 PERCENT OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z 
 GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON 
 DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 
 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF 
 TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z 
 EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z 
 CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8. 
 
 MODEL OF THE DAY: OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS 
 
 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5, 
 DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES BUT DIFFERENCES IN SOME 
 OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS.
 
 THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS 
 FROM THE MANUAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS, AND NAEFS TEMPERATURE 
 FORECASTS.
 
 THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG FROM THE MANUAL BLEND 
 AND VARIOUS MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS, NAEFS, THE CPC AUTO BLEND, AND INSPECTION OF 
 THE DAILY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE AVAILABLE MODELS.
 
 
 
 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 01 - 07 2009 
 
 THE EXPECTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS QUITE
 SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AND SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH FROM THE NORTHEASTERN 
 CONUS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS, AND AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE 
 NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW SIMILAR FEATURES 
 THOUGH MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEAN 
 SOLUTIONS. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS RELATIVELY WEAK ANOMALIES OVER MUCH 
 OF THE CONUS. THE CURRENT MJO ACTIVITY ADDS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY TO THE 
 WEEK-2 FORECAST. SOME OF THE RECENT TRENDS IN THE OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL 
 GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST EVOLUTION OF THE MJO, 
 HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE DEPICTS REDGING FOR THE PERIOD. 
 THIS MJO ACTIVITY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO WET CONDITIONS ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH 
 CONFLICTS WITH THE FORECAST RIDGING. THE AREA DEPICTING ENHANCED ODDS FOR BELOW 
 MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS LIMITED TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT 
 BASIN OF THIS TIME. TODAYS BLEND CHART IS SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD 
 INDICATING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS, AND ABOVE 
 AVERAGE HEIGHTS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. GREATER 
 CHANCES FOR NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE 
 CONUS BENEATH THE TROUGH, WHILE GREATER CHANCES FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES 
 ARE FORECAST FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, MOST OF ALASKA AND PART OF CALIFORNIA 
 UNDERNEATH THE FORECAST RIDGE. ENHANCED CHANCES FOR NEAR MEDIAN PRECIPITATION 
 ARE FORECAST ALONG THE WEST COASTS DUE TO POTENTIAL MJO INFLUENCES. ENHANCED 
 PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN 
 PLAINS, GULF COAST STATES, AND MOST OF THE EAST COAST UNDERNEATH THE FORECAST 
 TROUGH. 
 
 THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 40 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 
 OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z 
 GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON 
 DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 
 PERCENT OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 10 PERCENT 
 OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.
 
 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 
 5, DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS.
 
 THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM 
 THE MANUAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS, KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE 
 GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES, THE CPC AUTO BLEND, AND NAEFS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.
 
 THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE 
 MANUAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS, THE CPC AUTO BLEND, AND NAEFS 
 PRECIPITATION FORECASTS.
 
 FORECASTER: LUKE HE
 
 NOTES:  
  
 OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE  
 CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE  
 STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS  
 ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS  
 CHANGE. 
  
 AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  OTHERWISE - 
 FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT. 
  
 THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS 
 THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW 
  
 IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL 
 BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY 
 EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY 
 SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A 
 FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. 
  
 THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE 
 AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN 
 DISCONTINUED.  THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY 
 PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON 
 AWIPS.  
  
 THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR  
 TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN  
 THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
 
 THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON 
 DECEMBER 17
 
 NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004:
 THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS 
 PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE 
 MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE) 
 HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS.
 
 ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
 FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
 INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 
 19741108 - 19621201 - 19771105 - 19991205 - 19511202
 
 
 ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
 FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
 INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 
 19771102 - 19841125 - 19771107 - 19621130 - 19751108
 
 
 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
 OUTLOOK FOR NOV 29 - DEC 03, 2009
 
 STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   
 WASHINGTON  A    B     OREGON      N    B     NRN CALIF   N    B     
 SRN CALIF   N    B     IDAHO       N    B     NEVADA      N    B     
 W MONTANA   N    B     E MONTANA   B    N     WYOMING     B    N     
 UTAH        B    B     ARIZONA     B    N     COLORADO    B    N     
 NEW MEXICO  B    N     N DAKOTA    B    N     S DAKOTA    B    N     
 NEBRASKA    B    N     KANSAS      B    N     OKLAHOMA    B    N     
 N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    N     
 MINNESOTA   B    N     IOWA        B    N     MISSOURI    B    N     
 ARKANSAS    B    A     LOUISIANA   B    A     WISCONSIN   B    B     
 ILLINOIS    B    N     MISSISSIPPI B    A     MICHIGAN    B    B     
 INDIANA     B    N     OHIO        B    N     KENTUCKY    B    A     
 TENNESSEE   B    A     ALABAMA     B    A     NEW YORK    B    A     
 VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       N    A     
 MASS        B    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    A     
 PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  B    A     W VIRGINIA  B    A     
 MARYLAND    B    A     DELAWARE    B    A     VIRGINIA    B    A     
 N CAROLINA  B    A     S CAROLINA  B    A     GEORGIA     B    A     
 FL PNHDL    B    A     FL PENIN    B    A     AK N SLOPE  A    B     
 AK ALEUTIAN N    A     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    B     
 AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A     
  
                            
 
 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
 
 OUTLOOK FOR DEC 01 - 07 2009
 
 STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   
 WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      N    N     NRN CALIF   N    N     
 SRN CALIF   N    N     IDAHO       N    B     NEVADA      N    B     
 W MONTANA   N    N     E MONTANA   N    N     WYOMING     B    N     
 UTAH        N    N     ARIZONA     N    N     COLORADO    B    N     
 NEW MEXICO  B    A     N DAKOTA    N    N     S DAKOTA    N    N     
 NEBRASKA    B    N     KANSAS      B    N     OKLAHOMA    B    A     
 N TEXAS     B    A     S TEXAS     B    A     W TEXAS     B    A     
 MINNESOTA   N    N     IOWA        B    B     MISSOURI    B    N     
 ARKANSAS    B    A     LOUISIANA   B    A     WISCONSIN   N    B     
 ILLINOIS    B    N     MISSISSIPPI B    A     MICHIGAN    N    B     
 INDIANA     B    N     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    B    A     
 TENNESSEE   B    A     ALABAMA     B    A     NEW YORK    B    A     
 VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       N    N     
 MASS        B    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    A     
 PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  B    A     W VIRGINIA  B    A     
 MARYLAND    B    A     DELAWARE    B    A     VIRGINIA    B    A     
 N CAROLINA  B    A     S CAROLINA  B    A     GEORGIA     B    A     
 FL PNHDL    B    A     FL PENIN    B    A     AK N SLOPE  A    B     
 AK ALEUTIAN N    N     AK WESTERN  A    N     AK INT BSN  A    B     
 AK S INT    A    N     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    N     
  
                            LEGEND
 TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
 A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
 B - BELOW                        B - BELOW
  
 THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
 VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
 AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
  
 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
 PMDMRD.