AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KLKN 232259
 AFDLKN
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
 259 PM PST MON NOV 23 2009
 
 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
 STATES WILL LEAD TO QUIET AND TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH
 THANKSGIVING. BY THE WEEKEND...A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
 UNSETTLED WEATHER TO NORTHERN NEVADA. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
 WARM TO AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMALS BY THANKSGIVING.
 
 &&
 
 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WAS
 HAD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN NEVADA. SATELLITE
 IMAGERY SHOWS SOME THIN CIRRUS INFILTRATING THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
 OF THE STATE NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER. WINDS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY
 LIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE STATE. LOOK
 FOR TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY WARM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS TO NEAR
 NORMAL LEVELS WITH THANKSGIVING DAY BEING A LITTLE BIT ABOVE
 NORMAL. NIGHTS WILL START OUT CHILLY WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
 AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT SHOULD MODERATE SOMEWHAT
 AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
 
 .LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MORE OF THE SAME IN 
 REGARDS TO THE LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUING 
 FOR FRIDAYS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE FLIP 
 FLOP IN 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUED WITH A GFS 556H COMPARED TO A ECMWF 
 560H CONTOUR OVER NORTHERN NV. MOISTURE SHIELD IS SLIGHTLY 
 FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE GFS...BUT EITHER WAY BEST DYNAMICS ARE WELL 
 NORTH...AND TRACK IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT 
 PRECIPITATION. HAVE KEPT A LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS 
 ON FRIDAY...AND DRY ACROSS CENTRAL NV. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN 
 BEHIND THE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SEASONABLE COLD LOWS.  
 
 BOTH OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE 
 DIGGING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON 
 SATURDAY. THIS ELKO COUNTY CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS DEEPER AND FURTHER 
 WEST THEN LAST RUN. BASED ON CURRENT TRACK SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE 
 HEAVIEST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...ESPECIALLY ELKO COUNTY BUT 
 CLIMATOLOGICALLY THIS TRACK ONLY FAVORS LIGHT SNOWFALL IN THE 1-3" 
 RANGE. THE SYSTEM ALSO HAS SOME VERY COLD AIR WITH IT...SO TRENDED 
 TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO 
 REACH THE 40 DEGREE MARK ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY DRY 
 NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION...WITH COOL 
 AND DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY.
 
 &&
 
 .AVIATION...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY IN CONTROL OVER NRN AND 
 CNTRL NV DURING THE NEXT 24HRS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. 
 
 &&
 
 .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 NONE.
 &&
 
 

 
 86/95/95
 
 
 

Webmaster
US Dept of Commerce
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Weather Service
Elko Weather Forecast Office
3720 Paradise Drive
Elko, Nevada 89801

Tel: (775) 778-6716