FXUS66 KLOX 100553 
  AFDLOX 
   
  SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 
  950 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2010 
   
  ...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION... 
   
  .SYNOPSIS...A COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER 
  THE REGION TONIGHT AND EXIT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. OFFSHORE 
  FLOW IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR FAIR SKIES AND 
  WARMER TEMPERATURES. 
   
  && 
   
  .UPDATE...THE STORMS CENTER CURRENTLY REMAINS SKIMMING OVER THE 
  COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING. RADAR AND SATELLITE 
  IMAGERY INDICATE SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL 
  AND ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS FOR A WRAP- 
  AROUND EVENT DEVELOPING FOR THE INTERIOR SLOPE AND DESERT LATE 
  TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE 
  NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT OVER THE ANTELOPE 
  VALLEY WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE SURFACE UP TO ABOUT 7000 
  FEET. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE FREEZING APPROACHING 4000 
  FEET LATER TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...A 
  POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE BURSTS OF SNOW EXISTS FOR THE ANTELOPE 
  VALLEY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ADDED FOR THE ANTELOPE 
  VALLEY AND THE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CONTINUED FOR THE LOS ANGELES 
  AND VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS. THE ADVISORIES FOR THE SAN LUIS 
  OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS WILL BE MONITORED 
  CLOSELY...AS THEY ARE MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. WITH WRAP-AROUND 
  POTENTIAL IN PLACE AND COOL AIR MASS ALREADY TAKING SHAPE...SNOW 
  SHOWERS COULD STILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. AN UPDATE 
  WAS INCLUDED EARLIER TO DECREASE TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR 
  PORTION LATE TONIGHT...IN ADDITION TO UPDATING THE HEADLINES. 
   
  && 
   
  .PREV DISCUSSION...  
   
  SHORT TERM...ON WEDNESDAY LOW LVL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST 
  AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED 
  BUT POSSIBLY ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME NORTH FACING SLOPE AND 
  ANTELOPE VALLEY SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 
  OTHERWISE, CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING EARLY WED MORNING 
  WITH A DRY BUT COOL DAY EXPECTED. 
   
  DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS MODELS INDICATE THE LATE  
  WEEK SYSTEM WILL PRETTY MUCH BE A NON-ISSUE NOW. MAYBE JUST SOME  
  INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR AREAS NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION FRIDAY.  
  OTHERWISE, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE WARMING UP TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY  
  FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. 
   
  LONG TERM...DRY PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK TO 
  MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW AND 950 TEMPS AROUND 20C. THIS TYPICALLY 
  PRODUCES HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AT LEAST ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS 
  SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION AND NEAR 70 IN THE NORTH. WOULD NOT BE 
  SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AREAS NEAR 80 SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 
   
  && 
   
  .AVIATION... 
   
  10/0600Z 
   
  GOOD CONFIDENCE IN MOST TAFS. CST AND VLY TAFS FROM KSBA SOUTH TO  
  KLGB WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AND/OR SHOWERS. THERE IS A CHC  
  OF TSTMS OVER THE WATER BUT ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF A TSTM AT A  
  TAF SITE. THE DESERT SITES WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER SUNRISE. 
   
  KLAX...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 12Z THEN GOOD CONFIDENCE.  
  THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THERE WILL BE NO MVFR CIGS AND A  
  10 PERCENT CHC OF A TSTM TIL 12Z. 
   
  KBUR...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 12Z THEN GOOD CONFIDENCE.  
  THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AND A 10 PERCENT CHC OF A  
  TSTM TIL 12Z. 
   
  ..NOTE... 
  THE ASOS EQUIPMENT AT KBUR...KVNY...KHHR...KCMA...AND KOXR HAS A  
  SOFTWARE ERROR THAT MAY LEAD TO INCORRECT CLOUD HEIGHTS WHEN THERE  
  ARE TWO OR MORE CLOUD LAYERS PRESENT. OBSERVATIONS AT KBUR WILL BE  
  QUALITY CONTROLLED 24 HOURS A DAY...OBSERVATIONS AT KVNY WILL BE  
  QUALITY CONTROLLED FROM 13Z-07Z...OBSERVATIONS AT KOXR WILL BE  
  QUALITY CONTROLLED FROM 15Z-05Z. TAFS FOR KVNY AND KOXR WILL NOT BE  
  AMENDED FOR CIGS DURING THE TIME THE OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT MONITORED  
  AND THERE ARE TWO OR MORE CLOUD LAYERS PRESENT. 
   
  && 
   
  .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... 
  WINTER STORM WARNING (SEE LAXWSWLOX). 
  FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX). 
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX). 
  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX). 
  HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX). 
  MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX). 
   
  && 
   
  
 
   
  SYNOPSIS...SETO/HALL 
  PUBLIC...HALL/WOFFORD 
  AVIATION...ASR 
   
  WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES