FXUS66 KLOX 221830 
  AFDLOX 
   
  SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONAREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
This National Weather Service
product is intended to provide a
well-reasoned discussion of the
meteorological thinking which went
into the preparation of the Zone
Forecast Product. The forecaster
will try to focus on the most
particular challenges of the
forecast. The text will be written
in plain language or in proper
contractions. At the end of the
discussion, there will be a list of
all advisor...
Click for More... 
  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
An agency of the Federal Government
within the Department of Commerce,
National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Click for More... LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CACA
California
Click for More... 
  1030 AM PSTPST
Pacific Standard Time
Click for More... SUN NOV 22 2009 
   
  .SYNOPSIS...COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST TODAY...BUT 
  TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS 
  BACK INTO THE AREA. OFFSHORE FLOWOFFSHORE FLOW
Occurs when air moves from land to
sea, and is usually associated with
dry weather.
Click for More... WILL ESTABLISH THROUGH THE 
  WEEK...WITH WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY 
  THROUGH THANKSGIVING. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT 
  WEEKEND. 
   
  && 
   
  .UPDATE...ADVISORYADVISORY
Highlights special weather
conditions that are less serious
than a warning. They are for events
that may cause significant
inconvenience, and if caution is
not exercised, it could lead to
situations that may threaten life
and/or property.
Click for More... LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME LOCALIZED THIS 
  MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ONCE AGAIN LATER 
  TODAY. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS CAPTURED THE DIMINISHING OF THE WINDS 
  WELL FOR THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGREE WITH 
  THOUGHTS FOR STRENGTHENING OF THE WINDS. NAM-WRF AND GFSGFS
Global Forecast System - One of the
operational forecast models run at
NCEP. The GFS is run four times
daily, with forecast output out to
384 hours.
Click for More... SOLUTIONS 
  INDICATE 850 MBMB
Millibar
Click for More... AND BOUNDARY LAYERBOUNDARY LAYER
In general, a layer of air adjacent
to a bounding surface.
Specifically, the term most often
refers to the planetary boundary
layer, which is the layer within
which the effects of friction are
significant. For the earth, this
layer is considered to be roughly
the lowest one or two kilometers of
the atmosphere. It is within this
layer that temperatures are most
strongly affected by daytime
insolati...
Click for More... WINDS STRENGTHENING ONCE AGAIN 
  LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. NAMNAM
The operational North Amercian Meso
(NAM, formerly Eta, currently the
same as the WRF) is run four times
per day (00,06,12,18Z), all cycles
run to 84-h.
Click for More... BUFR DATA TIME HEIGHT 
  SECTIONS INDICATE 25 TO 30 KNOTS OF WIND BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 
  FEET MSLMSL
(Mean Sea Level) - The arithmetic
mean of hourly water elevations
observed over a specific 19-year
tidal epoch. 
Click for More... BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TONIGHT FOR KBUR...KVNY...AND KSBA. 
  DESPITE SOME MINOR INCONSISTENCIES IN INITIALIZATION...GRADIENTS 
  STILL REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. 
  THUS...THE ADVISORYADVISORY
Highlights special weather
conditions that are less serious
than a warning. They are for events
that may cause significant
inconvenience, and if caution is
not exercised, it could lead to
situations that may threaten life
and/or property.
Click for More... WILL BE ALLOW TO PERSIST...BUT ACCOUNT FOR 
  MORE LOCAL WINDS TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR 
  BETWEEN THE 00Z AND 06Z PERIOD TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A 
  CHANCE THAT WINDS COULD DIMINISH A LITTLE SOONER THAN WHAT THE 
  CURRENT ADVISORYADVISORY
Highlights special weather
conditions that are less serious
than a warning. They are for events
that may cause significant
inconvenience, and if caution is
not exercised, it could lead to
situations that may threaten life
and/or property.
Click for More... EXPIRATION TIME INDICATES. MODELS ARE TRENDING 
  WEAKER WITH THE EVENT FOR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. 
  MOST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND AND THERMAL SUPPORT WEAKENS BETWEEN 
  09Z AND 12Z TONIGHT. 
   
  && 
   
  .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM PSTPST
Pacific Standard Time
Click for More... SUN NOV 22 2009/  
   
  SHORT TERM...A RIDGERIDGE
An elongated area of relatively
high atmospheric pressure; the
opposite of trough.
Click for More... BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND LASTS 
  THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE A DECENT HIGH BUILDS INTO NEVADA 
  AND SETS UP NENE
Northeast
Click for More... FLOWFLOW
(abbrev. FLW) Wind. In meteorology,
a qualitative reference of an air
parcel(s) with respect to its
direction of movement, sometimes
specified at a certain height or
pressure elevation, e.g. westerly
flow at 500 mb. In hydrology, the
volumetric flow of water past a
given point on a stream or river,
usually in cubic feet per second
(cfs)
Click for More... THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR 
  AND WILL QUICKLY WARM TEMPSTEMPS
Temperatures
Click for More... UP FROM TODAYS COOLER VALUES. THERE 
  WILL BE AN INCREASE IN OFFSHORE FLOWOFFSHORE FLOW
Occurs when air moves from land to
sea, and is usually associated with
dry weather.
Click for More... EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY 
  WITH THE STRONGEST NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING 
  WITH VALUES FLIRTING WITH ADVISORYADVISORY
Highlights special weather
conditions that are less serious
than a warning. They are for events
that may cause significant
inconvenience, and if caution is
not exercised, it could lead to
situations that may threaten life
and/or property.
Click for More... LEVELS. 
   
  THE RIDGERIDGE
An elongated area of relatively
high atmospheric pressure; the
opposite of trough.
Click for More... AND THE OFFSHORE FLOWOFFSHORE FLOW
Occurs when air moves from land to
sea, and is usually associated with
dry weather.
Click for More... WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPSTEMPS
Temperatures
Click for More... TO THE  
  AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE INTERIOR SECTIONS WILL SEE TEMPSTEMPS
Temperatures
Click for More...  
  A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BUT THE COASTS AND VLYSVLYS
Valleys
Click for More... WILL SEE A MUCH  
  BETTER JUMP UP IN TEMPSTEMPS
Temperatures
Click for More... DUE TO THE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING ASSOCIATED  
  WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOWOFFSHORE FLOW
Occurs when air moves from land to
sea, and is usually associated with
dry weather.
Click for More.... TUE AND WED SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAYS FOE  
  THE NEXT SEVEN. 
   
  LONG TERM...BOTH THE GFSGFS
Global Forecast System - One of the
operational forecast models run at
NCEP. The GFS is run four times
daily, with forecast output out to
384 hours.
Click for More... AND THE ECEC
ECMWF Forecast Model
Click for More... AGREE THAT THE RIDGERIDGE
An elongated area of relatively
high atmospheric pressure; the
opposite of trough.
Click for More... WILL 
  BREAK DOWN THANKSGIVING. THE ECEC
ECMWF Forecast Model
Click for More... IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE AND 
  BRINGS IN A FULL ON TROFTROF
Trough
Click for More... TO SO CAL WHILE THE GFSGFS
Global Forecast System - One of the
operational forecast models run at
NCEP. The GFS is run four times
daily, with forecast output out to
384 hours.
Click for More... MERELY FLATTENS 
  THE RIDGERIDGE
An elongated area of relatively
high atmospheric pressure; the
opposite of trough.
Click for More... OUT. WILL LET THE MDLSMDLS
models
Click for More... SLUG IT OUT FOR A FEW MORE RUNS 
  BEFORE ALTERING THE FORECAST TOWARDS EITHER SOLNSOLN
Solution
Click for More.... THE BIG THING IS 
  THAT THE TEMPSTEMPS
Temperatures
Click for More... WILL COLLAPSE AND THIS IS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. 
   
  && 
   
  .AVIATION...22/1800Z. 
   
  A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGERIDGE
An elongated area of relatively
high atmospheric pressure; the
opposite of trough.
Click for More... OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAMUPSTREAM
Towards the source of flow, or
located in the area from which the
flow is coming.
Click for More... AND  
  EXTENDING OVER THE AREA WILL PERSIST. MODERATE UPPER LEVELUPPER LEVEL
In weather observing, the term
applies to the portion of the
atmosphere that is above the lower
troposphere, generally 850 hPa and
above.
Click for More... WEST  
  WINDS WILL PREVAIL WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST MIDMID
Middle
Click for More... LEVEL WINDS  
  PERSIST OVER THE AREA. PRESSURE GRADIENTGRADIENT
(abbrev. GRAD) A rate of change
with respect to distance of a
variable quantity, as temperature
or pressure, in the direction of
maximum change.
Click for More... WILL BECOME WEAK ONSHORE IN  
  THE AFTERNOON THEN BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.   
   
  KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH  
  23/11Z. THERE IS A CHANCE 5SM HAZEHAZE
(abbrev. HZ)- An aggregation in the
atmosphere of very fine, widely
dispersed, solid or liquid
particles, or both, giving the air
an opalescent appearance that
subdues colors.
Click for More... WILL DEVELOP AFTER 11Z AND  
  PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST  
  WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTKT
(Knot)- Unit of speed used in
navigation, equal to 1 nautical
mile (the length of 1 minute
latitude) per hour or about 1.15
statue miles per hour, or 0.5
meters/sec).
Click for More.... 
   
  KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. 
   
  VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100% 
  VERY LIKELY       - 80-95% 
  LIKELY            - 60-80% 
  CHANCE            - 30-60% 
  VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS 
   
  && 
   
  .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... 
  WIND ADVISORYWIND ADVISORY
Sustained winds 30 mph and greater
or frequent wind gusts 35 mph or
greater. These thresholds are
slightly higher for desert and
mountain areas.
Click for More... (SEE LAXNPWLOX.  
  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORYSMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) - An advisory issued for
sustained wind speeds or frequent
gusts greater than 20 kt but less
than 34 kts. An advisory is also
issued for hazardous seas of 10 ft
or greater. Any vessel that may be
adversely affected by Small Craft
Advisory criteria should be
considered a small craft. Other
considerations include the
experience of the vessel operator,
and the type, overall size, and sea
worthi...
Click for More... (SEE LAXMWWLOX). 
  GALE WARNINGGALE WARNING
 A warning of sustained surface
winds, or frequent gusts, in the
range of 34 knots (39 mph) to 47
knots (54 mph) inclusive, either
predicted or occurring, and not
directly associated with a tropical
cyclone.
Click for More... (SEE LAXMWWLOX). 
  COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX). 
  HIGH RIP CURRENTRIP CURRENT
A relatively small-scale surf-zone
current moving away from the beach.
Rip currents form as waves disperse
along the beach causing water to
become trapped between the beach
and a sandbar or other underwater
feature. The water converges into a
narrow, river-like channel moving
away from the shore at high speed.
Click for More... RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX). 
    
  && 
   
  
 
   
  SYNOPSIS...MEIER 
  PUBLIC...HALL 
  AVIATION...30 
   
  WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES