www.weather.gov

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS66 KMFR 100508
 AFDMFR
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
 905 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2010
 
 .DISCUSSION...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND HIGH CLOUDS
 STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO UPDATE
 NEEDED.
 
 WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND SEASONAL FOR THE INLAND AREAS...BUT RAIN 
 SHOULD START OVER THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT 
 MOVES IN AND THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS SHIFTING EAST. LIGHT WARM 
 FRONTAL RAIN SHOULD SPREAD INLAND DURING THE NIGHT MAINLY FOR THE 
 OREGON ZONES WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ABOVE ABOUT 4000 FEET. SOME 1 TO 2 
 INCH ACCUMULATIONS LOOK REASONABLE IN THE CASCADES OF KLAMATH AND 
 DOUGLAS COUNTIES WITH A HALF INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. 
 
 THURSDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION. THE GFS HAS THE 
 FASTER SOLUTION BUT WE HAVE COMPROMISED A BIT SLOWER WHICH IS IN 
 LINE WITH THE MORNING EC-GEM SOLUTIONS...AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. 
 THE SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN SHOWING BRIEF 50KT BARBS IN THE BOUNDARY 
 LAYER WITH 50-60 KTS COMING ONSHORE AT 850 MB AT 00Z OR 4 PM FRIDAY. 
 STABLE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR 
 COASTAL BARRIER JET FORMATION. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR 
 POTENTIAL 50KT GUSTS NEAR PORT ORFORD AND GOLD BEACH. COLD FRONTAL 
 PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND BUT SHOULD NOT BE TO IMPRESSIVE EXCEPT 
 AT THE COAST. 
 
 IN SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE SHASTA 
 REGION SHOULD PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WHICH MAY REQUIRE 
 HEADLINES. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY ADVISORY AMOUNTS.
 
 SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY ACROSS MAINLY THE OREGON WEST SIDE 
 ZONES FRIDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW FOLLOWS AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS 
 INDICATED MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTH.
 
 SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AT THIS POINT UNDER A RIDGE...BUT THERE IS 
 GROWING CONFIDENCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO THE NORTHERN 
 CWA WITH MAINLY COASTAL-REGION RAINS SUNDAY. STAVISH
 
 &&
 
 .AVIATION...VFR WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING. AREAS OF IFR IN FOG AND 
 FREEZING FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER VALLEY AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT 
 AND LAST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLEARING LIKELY INTO EARLY 
 AFTERNOON 
 ACROSS UNDER A VEIL OF CIRRUS INLAND. COASTAL RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO 
 BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE COAST BY 21Z.
 
 &&
 
 .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING 
      FOR ORZ021-022. 
 
 CA...NONE.
 
 PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 
      THURSDAY EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376. 
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM PST 
      THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376. 
      HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY 
      EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376. 
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 
      10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356. 
      SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 
      10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR PZZ370-376. 
 
 

 
 
 
 
 
 

Webmaster
US Dept of Commerce
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Weather Service
Medford Weather Forecast Office
4003 Cirrus Drive
Medford, OR 97504-4198

Tel: (541) 773-1067