AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KBYZ 101012
 AFDBYZ
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT 
 312 AM MST WED FEB 10 2010
 
 .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU...
 
 NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
 THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP A BROAD
 LEE SIDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. SOUTHWESTERLY
 WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE CWA IN RESPONSE. THESE WINDS WILL BE
 MODERATELY STRONG ALONG THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS THROUGH THURSDAY.
 A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA. A SHORTWAVE
 TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE CWA ON THURSDAY. MODELS ARE DEPICTING
 MODEST Q-G FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE AND GENERATING SOME QPF.
 SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FEEL APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME FOR MOST OF THE
 CWA. SCHUKNECHT
 
 .LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
 
 MODELS STAYING CONSISTENT ON NORTHWEST FLOW HANGING OVER MONTANA
 WITH A MEAN RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. SHORTWAVE
 ENERGY WILL RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AS IT ATTEMPTS TO BUILD EAST A
 BIT AND BUCKLE THE FLOW BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AGAIN. THIS PATTERN
 WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THE
 PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE INTO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH THE LACK
 OF A STRONG WARM UP AND PERIODS OF SNOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW
 LOOKS TO BE IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME WITH A MID
 LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN CAUGHT UP IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THE
 MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR SNOW WILL BE EAST OF BILLINGS...BUT IT
 IS VERY DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE NORTHWEST
 TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED BAND THIS FAR OUT. RAISED POPS ANOTHER
 NOTCH AND PUSHED THEM A LITTLE FARTHER WEST. NO OTHER CHANGES TO
 THE EXISTING PACKAGE. HUMPHREY
 
 &&
 
 .AVIATION...
 
 VFR FLYING WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
 WILL BE GUSTY FROM KBIL TO KLVM WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20KTS. A BATCH
 OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND
 THEN AGAIN TONIGHT BUT WILL NOT PRODUCE PRECIPITATION...OTHER
 THAN A FEW MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL OCCASIONALLY
 BE OBSCURED. HUMPHREY
 
 &&
 
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
 
     TDY THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     
 -------------------------------------------------------
 BIL 030 020/036 024/039 024/038 021/037 023/038 024/038
     0/B 02/J    22/S    22/S    21/B    22/S    20/B
 LVM 034 022/037 026/040 027/043 024/040 023/041 021/040
     0/N 12/J    22/S    22/S    21/B    20/B    20/B
 HDN 031 012/036 015/039 021/037 016/038 018/039 017/039
     0/B 02/J    23/S    33/S    21/B    22/S    21/B
 MLS 025 009/029 012/032 016/029 009/032 014/033 016/034
     0/B 02/J    24/S    43/S    20/B    12/S    21/B
 4BQ 031 011/034 017/035 018/033 013/035 015/036 016/037
     0/B 02/J    24/S    44/S    21/B    12/S    21/B
 BHK 023 007/028 011/029 011/022 006/030 010/034 012/037
     0/B 02/J    23/S    42/S    10/B    12/S    12/S
 SHR 033 012/036 018/036 018/037 016/038 016/038 018/039
     0/B 02/J    22/S    23/S    21/B    22/S    20/B
 
 &&
 
 .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 MT...NONE.
 WY...NONE.
 
 &&
 
 

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