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FXUS66 KSTO 240010
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
410 PM PST MON NOV 23 2009
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASANT AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO INTERIOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. FOG ALONG THE EASTERN VALLEY WAS A BIT SLOW IN MIXING
OUT TODAY BUT DID SO BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST HAS SPREAD A FEW HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA BUT OTHERWISE HAS BEEN OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. NORTHERLY
GRADIENT TIGHTENING A BIT THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS PRIMARILY TOWARDS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON ARE FOR THE MOST PART RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
24 HOURS AGO...THE EXCEPTION BEING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY. ALSO OF NOTE...DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA ARE RUNNING SEVERAL
DEGREES DRIER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO THE NORTHERLY DRYING WINDS.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
DOWN FAVORED WEST FACING SIERRA CANYONS PARTICULARLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. PATCHY FOG MAY BE A POSSIBILITY ONCE AGAIN ALONG
THE WIND-SHELTERED AREAS OF THE EASTERN VALLEY TONIGHT...THOUGH WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS TONIGHT ANY FOG SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS...IN THE 60S
IN THE VALLEY WITH ISOLATED 70S TOWARDS THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO
VALLEY AND 50S OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES BUT ARE SLOWLY SEEING BETTER AGREEMENT. A TROUGH WILL
APPROACH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DURING THE DAY WITH THE NORTHERN SAC
VALLEY AND SURROUNDING MOUNTAINS LIKELY SEEING PRECIPITATION
THANKSGIVING EVENING. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80 THOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND GEM HAVE HINTED AT WITH
VARIOUS MODEL RUNS SOME PRECIPITATION MAKING IT INTO THE SAC METRO
AREA. SNOW LEVELS MAY DIP DOWN INTO THE 4000-5000 RANGE BUT WITH LOW
QPFS FORECAST...SNOW TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN LOW. DANG
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
A TROUGH WILL BRUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION ON THE AREA INTO
FRIDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 4000 TO 5000 FEET FRIDAY MORNING.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND WARMER MAX TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
GUSTY NORTH TO EAST WINDS. THE MODELS DIVERGE ON MONDAY WITH THE
ECMWF SHIFTING THE RIDGE TO THE EAST WITH ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING
CALIFORNIA. THE GFS IS WEAKER...FASTER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THIS
TROUGH THAN THE ECMWF. THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR NOW LEANING TOWARDS
THE GFS BUT WILL SEE IF CONSISTENCY IMPROVES IN THE MODELS WITH THIS
SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING...WITH VALLEY FOG
EXPECTED TO RETURN AFT 12Z TUESDAY. FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL MAINLY
BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO AND NORTHERN
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS. MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z.
NORTHERLY GUSTY WINDS IN THE VALLEY WILL DIMINISH IN THE EARLY
EVENING...WHILE GUSTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND CANYONS WILL INCREASE TO
30 TO 50 KT OVERNIGHT.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
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