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FXUS06 KWBC 252000
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD
300 PM EST WED NOVEMBER 25 2009
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 01 - 05 2009
TODAYS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS DEPICT A
TROUGH ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL CONUS WITH RIDGING INDICATED NEAR THE WEST COAST.
ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN. THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS SHOW SIMILAR FEATURES ALTHOUGH THEY ARE MORE AMPLIFIED COMPARED TO THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS WEAKER
ANOMALIES OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS. THE OFFICIAL BLEND CHART FEATURES NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS WHILE ABOVE AVERAGE HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN. MOST OF THE CONUS IS FORECAST TO HAVE AN ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD FOR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BASED PRIMARILY ON BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS
INDICATED BY THE MANUAL BLEND. IN THE WESTERN CALIFORNIA AND MOST OF ALASKA,
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION EXIST FOR THE EAST COAST BENEATH
THE EASTERN CONUS FORECAST TROUGH AND ALSO FOR THE WESTERN ALASKA DOWNSTREAM OF
THE FORECAST PACIFIC TROUGH. GREATER PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR THE WEST COAST UNDERNEATH THE FORECAST RIDGE.
MOST PRECIPITATION TOOLS SUGGEST BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR EASTERN ALASKA.
TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 0Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON
DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...40
PERCENT OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF
TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8.
MODEL OF THE DAY: 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5,
DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES BUT DIFFERENCES IN SOME
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS
FROM THE MANUAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS, AND NAEFS TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE ANALOG FROM THE MANUAL BLEND
AND VARIOUS MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS, NAEFS, THE CPC AUTO BLEND, AND INSPECTION OF
THE DAILY PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE AVAILABLE MODELS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 03 - 09 2009
THE EXPECTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS QUITE SIMILAR TO
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AND SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL CONUS, AND AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE NEAR THE WEST COAST. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER AND GENERALLY REFLECT THE SAME FEATURES AS THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS. TODAYS BLEND CHART IS SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD
INDICATING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS, AND NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE HEIGHTS FOR THE WEST COAST, THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. GREATER CHANCES FOR NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
FOR MOST OF THE CONUS BENEATH THE TROUGH AND THE BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS,
WHILE GREATER CHANCES FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF
ALASKA AND PART OF CALIFORNIA UNDERNEATH THE FORECAST RIDGE. ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR THE GULF COAST
STATES, AND MOST OF THE EAST COAST UNDERNEATH THE FORECAST TROUGH. GREATER
PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR THE WEST COAST
UNDERNEATH THE FORECAST RIDGE.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10 PERCENT OF TODAY`S
OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY`S OPERATIONAL 6Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11...30 PERCENT OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20
PERCENT OF TODAY`S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 10 PERCENT
OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO
5, DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS.
THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM
THE MANUAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS, KLEIN PROBABILITIES FROM THE
GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES, THE CPC AUTO BLEND, AND NAEFS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.
THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
MANUAL BLEND AND VARIOUS MODEL HEIGHT FIELDS, THE CPC AUTO BLEND, AND NAEFS
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS.
FORECASTER: LUKE HE
NOTES:
OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE
CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE
STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS
ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS
CHANGE.
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE -
FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON
AWIPS.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
DECEMBER 17
NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004:
THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS
PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE
MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19931130 - 19531121 - 19621203 - 19871127 - 19791120
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19931130 - 19531121 - 19871127 - 19541119 - 19621203
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR DEC 01 - 05 2009
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B
SRN CALIF N B IDAHO B B NEVADA N B
W MONTANA B B E MONTANA B N WYOMING B N
UTAH B B ARIZONA B N COLORADO B N
NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N
N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B N W TEXAS B N
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE A A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR DEC 03 - 09 2009
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B
SRN CALIF N B IDAHO B B NEVADA N B
W MONTANA B B E MONTANA B N WYOMING B N
UTAH N B ARIZONA N B COLORADO B N
NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N
N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B N W TEXAS B N
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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