QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST

 
 FXUS04 KWBC 240956
 QPFPFD
  
 QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
 456 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009
  
  
 FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
 VALID NOV 24/1200 UTC THRU NOV 27/1200 UTC
 REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
  
  
 DAY 1...
 
 06Z UPDATE...
 RELATIVELY MINOR CHANGES FROM PRELIMS..MOST BASED ON SATL/RADAR
 TRENDS. 
 
 ...CNTRL U.S...
 
 MODELS REMAIN RATHER SIMILAR IN HANDLING OF EVOLVING CLOSED LOW
 OVER ERN KS THAT WILL LIFT NEWD TOWARD SRN LAKE MI AREA BY WED
 MORNING AS COLD UPSTREAM TROF DIGS SEWD ACRS THE NRN PLAINS.  THIS
 SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CUT OFF FROM THE MUCH DEEPER MSTR
 STILL LOCKED IN ACRS THE GULF COAST REGION..BUT MID/UPR FORCING
 SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR THE LOWER MSTR TO SUPPORT A BAND OF GREATER
 THAN .50 LIQUID AMOUNTS PREDOMINANTLY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
 MID/UPR LEVEL CIRC IN AREA OF PRONOUNCED 85H-7H MSTR FLUX
 CONVERGENCE.  GENLY TOOK BLEND OF NAM/GFS/GFSP GIVEN VERY SIMILAR
 MASS FIELD SOLNS.
 
 ...TX GULF COASTAL REGION...
 
 CDFNT DROPPING SEWD INTO THIS REGION BY TUES MORNING SHOULD AID
 DVLPMENT OF SHWRS AS FRONTAL LIFT ENCOUNTERS DEEPER MSTR BUILDING
 NEAR THE S TX COAST.  COULD SEE A QUICK .50 INCH ACRS EXTREME S TX
 EARLY IN THE PD BEFORE DRIER AIR BUILDS SWD ACRS THE REGION DURING
 THE AFTN.  OPTED TO GO WITH SLIGHTLY WETTER GFS/12Z ECMWF SOLN.
 
 ...FL...
 
 QUITE A FEW DIFFERENCES HERE WITH WHERE AND HOW QUICKLY SHWRS DVLP
 ALONG OLD FRONTAL BNDRY ACRS THE CNTL GULF AND MOVE TOWARD THE FL
 PENINSULA IN RESPONSE TO S/WV ENERGY LIFTING NEWD ACRS THE GULF. 
 ALL MODELS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION DVLPG ACRS THE GULF
 ESPECIALLY TUES NIGHT..AND CONSEQUENTLY SOME PROBLEMS WITH
 GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK ISSUES APPEAR TO DVLP..ESPECIALLY IN THE GFS. 
 THE NAM AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE COURSE OF LEAST REGRET AND
 FOCUSES SOME MDT RAINS ACRS NRN FL IN AXIS OF DEEPER MSTR
 FLUX..THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULAR HIGH.  
 
 ...MID ATLC/NE...
 
 REMNANTS OF S/WV ENERGY LIFTING ACRS THE MID ATLC REGION WILL
 QUICKLY EXIT THE COAST EARLY IN THE PD..LEAVING BEHIND RESIDUAL
 MOIST LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW THRU MUCH OF THE REGION.  GENLY VERY
 LIGHT RAINS OR DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED WITH PCPN MOST AREAS LESS THAN
 .10 INCH.
 
 ...PAC NW...
 POWERFUL ERN PAC STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD INTO THE
 GULF OF AK THIS PD DRAGGING ASSOCD COLD FRONT TOWARD B.C.  HEAVY
 RAINS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE WA BORDER..WHILE REMAINS OF WEAK
 FRONT ACRS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME LIGHTER SHWRS
 THRU THE DAY TUES ACRS MOSTLY WRN WA.   
  
  
 DAYS 2/3...
 
 ...PAC NORTHWEST...  
   
 THE MODELS STILL AGREE THAT A POTENT SYS WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
 FROM THE ERN NOPAC INTO THE PAC NW ON DAYS 2 AND 3...WITH THE
 MODELS IN DISTINCT TWO CAMPS WITH RESPECT TO THE DETAILS.  THE
 24/00Z GFS AND NAM BOTH BROUGHT A WEAKER SYSTEM INLAND WHILE THE
 ECMWF OFFERED A DEEPER/SLOWER SOLN.  EN COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS
 RUNS WHILE THE ECMWF KEPT REASONABLE CONTINUITY WITH A
 SLOWER/DEEPER SYSTEM.  WE OPTED TO WEIGHT THE FORECAST MORE
 HEAVILY TOWARDS THE ECMWF...BUT GIVEN A LACK OF ANY CLEAR SIGNAL
 WE INCORPORATED SREF/GFS/NAM TO MITIGATE SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY.
 REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLN VERIFIES...THE PERSISTENT/STRONG MSTR
 FETCH SHOULD WILL FOSTER 2-3 INCH AMTS IN THE WA COASTAL RANGE AND
 CASCADES...AND AN INCH IN THE LWR ELEVATIONS OF WRN WA.      
 
 ...UPR TO MID MS VLY INTO THE OH VLY AND GTLKS REGION...
 
 A STACKED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE MID
 MS VLY TOWARD THE GRT LAKES...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A DIGGING NRN
 STREAM UPPER TROUGH CARVES IN BEHIND TO CLOSE OFF ANOTHER LOW OVER
 LAKE MI TWD THE END OF DAY 3.  PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT
 THE START OF THE PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COMA HEAD/DYNAMIC
 COOLING QPF EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STAKED LOW AND WAA
 PRECIP AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...BASICALLY FROM ERN MN/NE IA
 THROUGH WI/MI AND NRN IN/IL. THE SPREAD IN THE 00Z MODEL
 PRODUCTION CYCLE WAS NOT AS GREAT AS IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
 WORTH OF RUNS...BUT THERE IS STILL ENOUGH THAT A BLEND OF THE
 ECMWF/SREF WAS USED...WITH SOMEWHAT GREATER WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE
 ECMWF DUE TO ITS CONSISTENCY. 
 
 ...SOUTHEAST COAST/FLORIDA...
 
 A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA
 ON DAY 2...HELPING TO PUSH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
 FURTHER SOUTH WHILE DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH BRINGS
 AN END TO THE PCPN.  ALONG THE SOUTHEAS COAST...THE MODELS STILL
 HAVE A PERIOD WHEN MSTR WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND TRIGGER PRECIP
 ALONG/NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST MAINLY ON DAY 2.  HPC FOLLOWED THE
 23/12Z ECMWF AS WELL AS THE 24/00Z GEM/ECMWF.  
 
 SULLIVAN/BANN  
 
 GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
 24HR QP VT 25/12Z
  0.01 525256 520246 516233 511221 507213 509207 514209 517213 
       520219 523221 528223 532222 534220 537216 536207 535202 
       533195 527183 521169 519163 517160 514157 510161 505161 
       500159 493161 490162 485156 473151 467145 462142 459148 
       467161 469166 473171 475176 480178 492181 500184 503187 
       503189 502199 500205 496204 492202 487200 483201 476202 
       471206 464213 455216 454218 454222 455228 442256 447261 
       453263 461258 471254 475257 475264 471275 471281 473288 
       469308 470316 474321 483319 491314 499309 508302 
  0.01 459653 457645 453642 442639 430642 424642 419642 411643 
       405646 401652 400659 401669 403674 406683 406687 406692 
       408696 411700 410705 408710 405715 401721 394727 390732 
       382741 378745 376749 374753 374758 368762 368765 370768 
       374770 378775 380778 378783 373788 359796 356801 354806 
       350810 344813 343818 344825 345830 345834 346838 352836 
       359833 364826 370817 374812 379807 384802 388794 389790 
       392787 396786 403782 408779 414776 425778 429776 431772 
       429765 426758 421750 419745 419740 418733 419728 420725 
       433705 449679 454667 458659 459653 
  0.01 230982 236990 239993 242998 245004 248007 256013 268017 
       273016 279013 289004 293998 295992 301972 304968 312964 
       319956 329947 335943 341940 350939 358938 366936 371936 
       375939 377946 377956 378964 382972 385976 388979 391979 
       397981 411981 422980 430981 427986 424993 422001 422005 
       425013 427017 431018 432016 434010 437004 443003 447008 
       451011 454014 458015 466013 472010 483010 489012 493015 
       497022 502028 503031 503037 502041 503044 505049 510051 
       517049 521046 526043 529040 531037 532027 532019 529017 
       520018 518016 517009 511994 506986 500981 496979 492975 
       484965 479962 474960 467957 470953 473951 477950 485946 
       501940 505933 508923 507913 507907 508900 513890 512884 
       506881 498881 493882 485882 481879 476873 472865 469856 
       467843 464830 462825 460820 455816 449814 438814 427815 
       421816 414817 401821 393825 388829 380834 376838 372840 
       370843 364850 359855 357860 351869 347874 342877 331886 
       323892 316904 320906 328907 326914 325923 324926 321929 
       316933 313935 309934 308932 305932 299934 294935 289933 
       286930 280930 272933 267936 256945 247953 241963 239970 
       231976 
  0.01 496149 495142 492137 489134 484131 478131 472131 469134 
       468140 468142 471143 477144 483145 485148 488151 491151 
       496149 
  0.01 483231 484227 483226 482227 482231 483231 
  0.01 470111 470106 468106 468111 470111 470111 
  0.01 471094 470093 467093 470094 471094 
  0.01 457085 458080 459076 459072 458068 457064 456060 456059 
       453056 450060 447062 446064 444067 444068 444072 444075 
       445076 447079 448080 450083 453084 453085 456086 457085 
  0.01 323798 319793 313789 308787 300784 294784 291787 290790 
       286797 281799 275797 272797 270794 265785 260781 255780 
       251786 243799 239810 238817 238820 240825 244829 250830 
       259827 263823 264828 262836 261843 261852 263860 266868 
       273869 283865 287862 292857 296850 300845 308832 316818 
       320810 323802 323798 
  0.25 522265 521259 518253 511240 503229 500223 497221 493221 
       492226 492231 492237 490240 485242 480248 479258 480266 
       481276 481285 482291 483296 485300 488302 492302 498300 
       508293 512289 516284 
  0.25 441659 440654 438652 430654 423656 417658 413660 411666 
       412671 415676 421684 426687 432686 437681 441674 442664 
       441659 
  0.25 480919 478917 475917 472918 469918 466918 463919 462919 
       460922 458925 460929 461929 464928 465927 467926 470925 
       472923 475921 478920 480919 
  0.25 448882 447873 445866 441862 434858 431857 427858 425860 
       419872 413882 408883 400883 394884 388887 384891 381899 
       390905 394907 396910 397914 401930 401938 399944 394955 
       393960 394964 398967 405966 408964 415961 421957 430949 
       434946 442942 448940 452936 452932 450931 443929 440921 
       440911 443896 446888 448882 
  0.25 309808 306804 303803 295807 290809 288810 286814 282821 
       278828 276837 277843 281847 286847 291843 298836 302829 
       306822 308811 309808 
  0.25 260808 259805 256803 253803 251804 248805 247807 246808 
       246810 246814 249815 251814 254813 256812 259811 260808 
  0.25 283969 283963 281956 275952 266951 261952 258955 254962 
       249968 245970 243975 244980 246986 252991 260992 268988 
       273982 278976 282972 283969 
  0.50 519274 520265 519259 513247 508240 500232 497231 495235 
       495240 495244 493244 490244 486246 484249 482258 483265 
       485273 486277 487283 487289 489293 493294 498294 502293 
       509289 513284 517277 519274 
  0.50 435665 432663 431663 429663 427666 424666 423670 425673 
       427675 428675 431676 433673 434670 434667 435665 
  0.50 433895 428889 425889 422892 418892 411891 405891 403893 
       401897 403901 406904 411909 415914 416918 419923 424922 
       428917 431908 433899 433895 
  0.50 414929 414925 413923 413921 410919 408923 408926 411929 
       413929 414929 414929 
  0.50 414948 416944 415940 414937 412936 412937 410940 409942 
       407944 406946 405947 402950 402951 400955 402958 403959 
       405958 406957 409956 411953 412952 414949 414948 
  0.50 302817 299815 295815 290818 288821 286824 284828 282832 
       283838 285840 287839 293837 297833 299829 301825 302821 
       302817 
  0.50 268968 270965 268963 267962 265960 262960 261963 260965 
       259966 258968 257970 256973 256976 259978 261978 262978 
       264976 265974 266973 267971 268968 268968 
  1.00 515277 517271 518263 515256 510247 505242 502242 501244 
       502249 500253 492250 488251 487255 488265 490275 492281 
       495285 500288 506287 513280 515277 
  1.50 511279 515272 515267 515262 512256 509251 507250 505253 
       502257 497255 494253 491254 489256 489261 491266 492271 
       495277 498282 504285 508283 511279 
  2.00 513271 513265 511260 509257 508259 505261 502260 496257 
       491257 492265 494271 496276 499279 504283 507281 511275 
       513271 
  3.00 506277 506273 506272 504268 502266 501265 499262 496262 
       495263 495265 496268 497271 499274 499275 502278 505278 
       506277  
  
 24HR QP VT 26/12Z
  0.01 525251 522246 520241 518236 515231 513226 511221 508216 
       505211 503206 506202 510203 513205 518210 521212 526217 
       529219 533220 535220 540202 535190 527178 517167 508160 
       502159 497163 493167 491170 489175 491193 489197 485197 
       482200 474208 470212 466218 454222 444226 440229 436234 
       433239 431243 430248 430256 430260 432265 434270 438276 
       447284 447288 449290 453295 455299 459302 466304 471303 
       476300 482296 487294 491294 498295 504296 510297 
  0.01 507774 505766 498759 493754 488751 476745 465739 452735 
       448734 443736 436742 429750 421753 414754 409754 402753 
       393756 390763 382768 377773 373779 372787 374790 376791 
       379792 383791 392787 397785 404787 407788 410790 407797 
       406801 403805 396809 393815 392820 393824 393827 393832 
       396835 399839 398843 397848 399854 402862 403866 405869 
       404876 405882 407889 406897 404904 403913 403923 406931 
       410938 415944 420948 426952 432956 438959 443963 446965 
       447971 449979 452983 454985 461984 473976 483962 486957 
       485951 482949 476946 470943 468941 468937 474933 482927 
       485922 488911 491904 495898 498894 500889 502883 502876 
       503869 503858 503854 502847 500834 500829 500823 500818 
       502810 505797 507785 507774 
  0.01 475684 473676 469670 461666 453664 446664 441666 438672 
       435677 434682 433693 436701 439704 443706 449705 457700 
       468694 473689 475684 
  0.01 363752 362746 357742 349742 343739 340738 334739 326741 
       321744 319746 307760 292771 278782 261788 252791 247793 
       244796 239802 236810 235817 235826 238835 239838 243839 
       257841 261842 264845 267855 270858 273860 281859 288854 
       294848 305837 311830 315823 325808 329801 332793 335785 
       340778 346772 351768 353765 357763 361759 363752 
  0.25 524261 519249 514240 504220 497212 492210 486208 481209 
       477212 476220 473224 470228 466230 458235 455236 451239 
       449246 446252 444257 444263 446267 452269 461270 470269 
       469284 470287 472287 476286 483281 488279 492280 504283 
       513284 516284 
  0.25 524197 523194 523192 520190 517189 516190 517192 520194 
       522197 524197 
  0.25 478806 475798 470792 459785 455785 455790 456796 460807 
       461811 459812 451813 447815 444819 446824 449828 452837 
       450847 448853 444859 439867 435882 432889 427897 417908 
       414913 417920 428929 432933 439938 445938 451935 457930 
       461924 463919 463916 462911 466902 471895 473889 475880 
       475867 475858 475852 474844 471833 471824 471819 474816 
       476813 477809 478806 
  0.25 353753 352753 349754 347755 344756 342759 341760 342763 
       343763 346761 347761 348760 351758 353755 353753 
  0.25 324766 318766 312769 306773 303778 294786 288789 281790 
       271790 266791 259793 252796 246800 243803 241809 240814 
       241819 243823 248825 252828 256829 262830 267829 274828 
       278830 281836 284838 288838 291836 295833 303824 310815 
       316806 318801 319796 319789 318783 314780 310779 313776 
       319772 324766 
  0.50 522265 519256 515247 506230 503225 500220 493216 488213 
       483212 481214 480217 481222 483223 483228 479227 477225 
       472230 465234 456248 453255 453261 457262 459262 467261 
       472260 475260 477263 478269 477276 481277 484276 488275 
       492275 502279 510279 517278 
  0.50 454918 450910 449907 446899 443896 441897 436900 432903 
       430908 429913 430916 433920 437923 443924 449923 452922 
       454918 
  0.50 315794 313788 308788 304790 297794 291798 291802 289805 
       287810 287815 288820 290824 293827 300822 304817 306812 
       309805 313799 315794 
  0.50 273803 268796 262794 257796 252799 247804 247810 251813 
       254815 256819 260823 264819 267811 271807 273803 
  1.00 519269 517260 513252 506235 501228 496222 490219 487219 
       487220 489229 492239 484241 481240 477235 473235 471238 
       472241 473248 473251 477252 482258 482268 499275 505275 
       512274 515273 517271 519269 
  1.00 471241 469238 466238 465239 466241 469242 471241 
  1.50 515267 515262 514259 512253 508244 505239 501233 495226 
       493230 496236 497241 497245 495246 489244 484245 480246 
       480248 482250 484254 485259 488265 491268 500270 506271 
       512270 515267 
  2.00 511265 513261 512256 512255 509251 507250 504253 504258 
       505260 506263 507264 510266 511265 
  2.00 496264 496262 495258 494255 493253 492249 489248 486249 
       485250 485252 486255 487258 489261 490262 492264 495264 
       496264 
  
  
 24HR QP VT 27/12Z
  0.01 484640 481632 478626 474624 471620 463617 460617 454618 
       443635 426642 418645 412649 409650 408654 421662 425669 
       422673 422678 420684 415677 409670 406672 404675 404679 
       403685 403690 406702 406709 409715 409719 407717 404715 
       400713 394713 389713 384716 377719 367725 361729 356731 
       347737 344740 340746 338755 338760 341764 348766 353765 
       357765 362764 363767 362772 362775 366775 368772 371771 
       377770 380770 385771 392778 396782 394787 389790 385795 
       382797 378801 370808 364815 363820 364828 368831 373831 
       379839 382843 386845 389846 393848 396853 397859 398867 
       399875 401881 404888 406892 410895 418899 428901 432902 
       437902 440902 445900 452894 456890 459891 464902 468901 
       472897 483877 488867 491855 495830 497817 499805 501794 
       502788 501783 499779 497775 493768 491765 490760 489752 
       486746 480734 474727 470723 467715 467707 468701 473689 
       479670 483652 484640 
  0.01 522268 519266 519262 521253 523246 525234 527214 527204 
       527199 528194 529189 527181 520170 512160 508156 505155 
       495162 489177 486183 480182 471177 465177 460179 456183 
       457187 462190 464192 465196 464201 463204 458207 449214 
       442213 436211 423206 420206 417207 417212 422217 419220 
       410222 405222 399224 390228 386232 383238 384242 387247 
       395254 398259 399265 401272 403278 405283 409289 413291 
       420294 424295 427298 427302 425308 427314 432325 441335 
       452337 458336 463335 472330 476327 481322 484318 489312 
       496304 499299 502292 507283 511278 513279 516281 
  0.01 448728 447724 446722 445721 442721 440724 439725 438727 
       436730 433733 431734 430736 432736 434738 435738 439739 
       442740 445739 448737 449732 449730 448728 
  0.01 450821 450820 448817 446816 445819 447821 450821 450821 
  0.01 323068 324065 324060 323052 318040 316026 310017 304007 
       302005 299005 294008 289012 284015 280015 276014 273012 
       261009 252009 248012 246015 246019 248026 250030 254034 
       258037 263039 269039 276040 280041 283046 285049 284053 
       291061 294072 295080 294084 296087 300090 304093 308093 
       310089 313085 318075 323068 
  0.01 268792 267789 265786 262786 253792 247798 243805 242812 
       241822 243827 247829 252826 255823 257815 258809 260806 
       265800 263797 265795 268792 
  0.25 450661 447656 445654 442657 439661 437667 435677 434684 
       435693 436698 438701 444699 448692 449686 450675 450666 
       450661 
  0.25 506273 508266 509257 509245 505222 502211 498204 490202 
       485204 483207 472220 467221 463219 460218 458219 456223 
       452226 449226 439223 431225 423229 415231 408233 403239 
       402245 402247 406251 412252 419252 435249 439249 443252 
       441260 440265 442270 446273 451273 458271 464268 469270 
       470275 467284 465290 463297 459306 458310 460316 463318 
       467319 471317 474315 480311 487304 492297 501284 506273 
  0.25 512189 513185 512181 509183 509184 509185 511189 512189 
  0.25 476765 474757 469754 464752 459752 447754 436758 430762 
       429768 424774 421780 427782 434779 438775 442773 449773 
       459773 465773 471772 476765 
  0.25 479824 476821 472822 464828 457837 452840 446841 440844 
       439851 441863 442867 447869 452869 457866 465859 471851 
       476841 478835 479829 479824 
  0.25 421801 420799 419798 416796 415796 413796 410798 409803 
       411806 413807 415808 416808 418807 419806 421803 421801 
  0.50 499279 504267 504259 504253 501244 500233 500223 499218 
       497214 491210 488210 485213 481217 475223 469227 463229 
       457232 449233 443236 437234 432231 426232 413235 410238 
       409241 411246 417247 425246 430243 433239 437238 445244 
       447246 448250 449259 452263 456265 469260 475259 480264 
       482270 481277 477288 474296 473299 475304 479304 482303 
       488297 494287 499279 
  1.00 494258 494254 495250 495249 492244 490241 488242 486245 
       486246 488251 488253 488256 490259 493262 494258 
  1.00 483240 483236 482233 480230 477230 471232 467233 464234 
       459237 456240 456247 458252 464253 467253 473250 476247 
       480244 483240 
  1.00 422242 422238 419238 416240 418242 421242 422242 
  1.50 473241 472237 470237 466238 464238 463240 462242 462246 
       465247 468246 471245 471244 473241  
  
 

 
 
 

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