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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KPIH 092050
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
200 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING SPLIT PAC TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE TODAY WITH NRN BRANCH
PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA WHILE SRN BRANCH (LOW)
DIGS SSE ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BURNING OFF A
BIT QUICKER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WHILE REGION
REMAINS BETWEEN SPLIT FEATURES NOTED ABOVE. SHORT TERM CONCERNS WILL
BE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPING STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT. EYES THEN TURN
NORTH AWAITING ARRIVAL OF NRN BRANCH OF SPLIT TROUGH WHICH IS
PROGGED TO DIG SE ACROSS CANADA AND WEAKEN. GFS TRIES TO GENERATE
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WHEREAS THE NAM REMAINS DRY. GENERALLY SIDING WITH THE NAM...HOWEVER
LEAVING SOME TOKEN LOW END PROBABILITY MENTION OVER THE CNTRL AND
ERN HIGHLANDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WED NIGHT. NEXT UPSTREAM
PAC LOW SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE BC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE TOPPING THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE (OVERRUNNING) THURSDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY. GFS APPEARS TO BE
SOMEWHAT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SPEED WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER
AND MORE MOIST. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS GIVEN THE STATURE OF
THE RIDGE WHILE USING A BROAD BRUSH IN TERMS OF TIMING. THUS WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS...WILL LIKELY MODERATE SOME
BY FRIDAY AS THE PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE ACTIVE. HUSTON

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG RANGE...HOWEVER RIGHT NOW IT
APPEARS THAT ANY WAVES THAT MOVE INTO THE AREA WILL BE RELATIVELY
WEAK. A BROAD TROUGH WILL SET UP OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
AND SEND A SERIES OF WAVES OVER THE TOP OF A FLAT GREAT BASIN
RIDGE. THE TIMING REMAINS RATHER SKETCHY BUT THE LATEST MODELS
POINT TO FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST BET FOR
PRECIPITATION RIGHT NOW. TWEAKED POPS UPWARD ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS PRIMARILY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...A MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND 6000 FT IS PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEREFORE MOST OF THE
LOW STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN DISSIPATED EARLIER THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THIS LAYER TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA LATER THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE LOWER LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG TO
MAKE A COMEBACK OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN
AFTER 06Z AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KSUN. AGAIN...EXPECT THE
FOG/STRATUS TO DISSIPATE LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING OR POSSIBLY SOONER
IF HIGH CLOUDS FROM A SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH WORK THEIR WAY
NORTHWARD.
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&