AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KPIH 092050
 AFDPIH
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
 200 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2010
 
 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY 
 SHOWING SPLIT PAC TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE TODAY WITH NRN BRANCH 
 PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA WHILE SRN BRANCH (LOW) 
 DIGS SSE ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BURNING OFF A 
 BIT QUICKER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WHILE REGION 
 REMAINS BETWEEN SPLIT FEATURES NOTED ABOVE. SHORT TERM CONCERNS WILL 
 BE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPING STRATUS/FOG TONIGHT.  EYES THEN TURN 
 NORTH AWAITING ARRIVAL OF NRN BRANCH OF SPLIT TROUGH WHICH IS 
 PROGGED TO DIG SE ACROSS CANADA AND WEAKEN. GFS TRIES TO GENERATE 
 SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON 
 WHEREAS THE NAM REMAINS DRY. GENERALLY SIDING WITH THE NAM...HOWEVER 
 LEAVING SOME TOKEN LOW END PROBABILITY MENTION OVER THE CNTRL AND 
 ERN HIGHLANDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WED NIGHT. NEXT UPSTREAM 
 PAC LOW SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE BC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 
 ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE TOPPING THE DOWNSTREAM 
 RIDGE (OVERRUNNING) THURSDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY. GFS APPEARS TO BE 
 SOMEWHAT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SPEED WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER 
 AND MORE MOIST.  WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER GFS GIVEN THE STATURE OF 
 THE RIDGE WHILE USING A BROAD BRUSH IN TERMS OF TIMING. THUS WE WILL 
 CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 
 TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOWS...WILL LIKELY MODERATE SOME 
 BY FRIDAY AS THE PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE ACTIVE. HUSTON
 
 .LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN 
 EXPECTED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE LONG RANGE...HOWEVER RIGHT NOW IT 
 APPEARS THAT ANY WAVES THAT MOVE INTO THE AREA WILL BE RELATIVELY 
 WEAK. A BROAD TROUGH WILL SET UP OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST 
 AND SEND A SERIES OF WAVES OVER THE TOP OF A FLAT GREAT BASIN 
 RIDGE.  THE TIMING REMAINS RATHER SKETCHY BUT THE LATEST MODELS 
 POINT TO FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST BET FOR 
 PRECIPITATION RIGHT NOW.  TWEAKED POPS UPWARD ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND 
 SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS PRIMARILY IN THE 
 HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
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 .AVIATION...A MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS AROUND 6000 FT IS PUSHING 
 EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEREFORE MOST OF THE 
 LOW STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN DISSIPATED EARLIER THIS 
 MORNING.  EXPECT THIS LAYER TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA LATER THIS 
 EVENING AND TONIGHT...ALLOWING THE LOWER LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG TO 
 MAKE A COMEBACK OVERNIGHT.  EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN 
 AFTER 06Z AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KSUN.  AGAIN...EXPECT THE 
 FOG/STRATUS TO DISSIPATE LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING OR POSSIBLY SOONER 
 IF HIGH CLOUDS FROM A SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH WORK THEIR WAY 
 NORTHWARD.
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 .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
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