AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KSLC 251611
 AFDSLC
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
 911 AM MST WED NOV 25 2009
 
 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AND REMAIN ACROSS
 THE REGION THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. A PACIFIC STORM
 SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE FRIDAY AND
 SATURDAY.
 
 
 
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 .DISCUSSION...WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...ANOTHER
 CLEAR...CALM DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA. PER THE 12Z KSLC
 SOUNDING...700 MB TEMPS HAVE WARMED TWO DEGREES OVERNIGHT. 700 MB
 TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
 RIDGE STRENGTHENS. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND
 THE EC AS TO HOW HIGH 700 MB TEMPS WILL REACH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
 THE GFS SHOW MAX 700 TEMPS AROUND 2C...WHILE THE EC SHOWS A MAX OF
 4C OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE NAM ALSO SHOWS 700MB TEMPS IN
 EXCESS OF 4C TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SO SUSPECT THAT THE GFS 700 MB
 TEMPS MAY BE A LITTLE UNDERDONE. EITHER WAY...THIS WARMING WILL
 FURTHER STRENGTHEN VALLEY INVERSIONS...SO VALLEY AREAS ARE EXPECTED
 TO SEE VERY LITTLE WARMING.
 
 FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW EVENING AHEAD OF AN
 APPROACHING SYSTEM. 700 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND
 20KTS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT MIXING TOMORROW AFTERNOON COULD
 REACH THE UPPER BENCH AREAS...RESULTING IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
 
 THE APPROACHING SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
 THIS WEEKEND...SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY. THE
 SYSTEM WEAKENS AND SPLITS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...AND
 LOOKS RATHER WEAK BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE CWA. A
 SECOND...WEAKER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY MORNING.
 
 THE GFS AND EC ARE VERY CLOSE AS TO THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. THE
 GFS HOLDS THE SYSTEM TOGETHER BETTER THAN THE EC...WHILE THE GEM
 SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM THAN EITHER THE GFS OR THE EC. WITH
 THE GFS AND EC IN BETTER AGREEMENT...SUSPECT THAT THE GEM IS A
 LITTLE TOO OPTIMISTIC. EVEN WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM IN THE
 GFS...STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE RATHER MEAGER...AND
 SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS NOT EXPECTED WITH EITHER DISTURBANCE.
 
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 .AVIATION...SURFACE WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH 
 TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS 
 WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. 
 
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 .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 UT...NONE.
 WY...NONE.
 
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 PUBLIC...HOSENFELD
 AVIATION...SCHOENING
 
 FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
 HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)