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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KSLC 311606
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1006 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS UTAH
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF COLD PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCES
FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RETURN
FOR LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...DOWNSTREAM FROM A MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST...WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
DRY...DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW THIS MOMENTUM TO
TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE...AND COUPLED WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY
SURFACE GRADIENT WILL YIELD BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
WESTERN VALLEYS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE WIND GUSTS TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT A FEW
GUSTS INTO THE 40 MPH RANGE. GIVEN THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS OF
LATE BLOWING DUST MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON.
MEANWHILE THE 700MB THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS UT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 6-7C RANGE. THIS WILL YIELD RECORD HIGHS FOR
MANY LOCATIONS...WITH THE MARCH MONTHLY RECORD OF 80F IN JEOPARDY
AT KSLC.

THE WEST COAST TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT INLAND TODAY AND THROUGH
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT. WHILE THE STRONGEST
FORCING...DEEPEST MOISTURE AND COLD POOL ALOFT WILL ALL PASS
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...A FORMIDABLE TRAILING SURFACE FRONT
WILL CROSS INTO NORTHWEST UT LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SURGING
THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UT THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING NEAR
THE AZ BORDER WEDNESDAY. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE FAIRLY STRONG LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT CROSSES NORTHERN
UT...HOWEVER VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WILL YIELD ONLY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY RESULTING IN A BAND OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION CAPABLE
OF ENHANCING SURFACE WINDS BUT LITTLE ELSE. UPDATED TO REMOVE THE
THREAT OF PRE-FRONTAL TERRAIN-DRIVEN CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND HAVE MAINTAINED GOING IDEA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BAND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH.
ADDITIONALLY STRONG POST-FRONTAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NV
BORDER AND GOING WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE.

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN LARGELY CONFINED TO THE
LINGERING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR COUPLED WITH CLEARING SKIES
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A HARD FREEZE ACROSS MANY
VALLEYS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ITS ALSO POSSIBLE ISOLATED
POCKETS NEAR THE ID BORDER WILL EXPERIENCE A HARD FREEZE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER INCREASING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT LENDS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT.



&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT THE
SLC TERMINAL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TODAY...BECOMING GUSTY BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT...BUT THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THIS WILL OCCUR
EARLIER THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
UTZ005.

WY...NONE.
&&




SEAMAN/TRAPHAGAN

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HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)