Pacific Northwest Weather Workshop 2011

13-14 May, 2011

Building 9 Auditorium

NOAA Western Regional Center

7600 Sand Point Way, NE, Seattle, WA 98115

12:00 - 1:00 PM Registration

1:00 - 1:10 PM Welcome and meeting planss: Kirby Cook, Science and Operations Officer, NOAA/NWS WFO Seattle

Session I: Extreme Local Weather

1:10 PM Study of Brookings, Oregon All-time Record High Temperatures on July 8, 2008 Phil Breuser and Tracy Fields, NW Weathernet

1:25 PM The year after an extreme cold El Nino / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episode Todd Mitchell and Nate Mantua; Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington

1:40 PM Summertime Rainfall Events in Eastern Oregon and Washington N.A. Bond, A.M. Chiodi, N.K. Larkin and J. Barbour. University of Washington/JISAO

1:55 PM Historical Analysis of Pacific Northwest Heat Waves Karin Bumbaco, Kathie Dello, Nicholas Bond, UW/JISAO

2:10 PM Atmospheric Rivers and Flooding Mike Warner and Cliff Mass, UW

2:20 PM 20th century reanalysis storm track trends over the northeast pacific Adam Skalenakis, Atmospheric Sci., UW

2:40 - 3:10 PM Break with refreshments

Session II: Coastal Weather

3:10 PM Freezing Spray in the Western Washington Inland Waters Jay Albrecht, National Weather Service Forecast Office, Seattle WA

3:25 PM The west coast thermal trough: evolution and prediction Matt Brewer and Cliff Mass, UW

3:40 PM Review of a ‘San Francisco summer’ for the Pacific Northwest in 2010 Jim Johnstone, JISAO, UW

3:55 PM Observations of Rapid Wave Growth in the Coastal Waters of the Pacific Northwest Jay Albrecht, NWS Seattle

Session III: The Impact of the Japanese Tsunami and Radiation Release

3:10 PM Tsunami Event 16 March 2011, Lessons Learned Naeemah Cushmeer, NWS, Seattle

3:25 PM Long-range transport of radionuclides from Japan: A real concern or mass hysteria? Dan Jaffe, UW Bothell

Session IV: Renewable Energy and Snowpack

4:40 PM Web-Based Ensemble Forecast and Verification Products for Users in the Energy Sector Dominique Bourdin, Katelyn Wells, Roland Stull, Doug McCollor, and Gregory West, University of British Columbia, Dept. of Earth and Ocean Sciences

4:55 PM An Update on Cascade Snowpack Trends since 1930 Mark T. Stoelinga, Clifford F. Mass, and Mark D. Albright (3Tier and UW)

5:10 PM Wind and solar prediction Eric Grimit, 3-Tier, Inc.

Workshop Banquet

6:00 - 9:00 PM Workshop Banquet at the Talaris Conference Center. 4000 NE 41st St, Seattle, WA 98105

6:00 - 7:00 PM Icebreaker no host bar

7:00 - 8:00 PM Buffet Dinner

8:00 - 9:00 PM Wind Energy Prediction: Trials and Tribulations, Justin Sharp, Iberdrola Energy

Session V: Local Weather Observations

9:00 AM AgWeatherNet: The Washington Agricultural Weather Network Gerrit Hoogenboom, Washington State University, Prosser, Washington

9:15 AM Update on the new coastal radar Cliff Mass, UW

9:30 AM Dual Polarization of the NW Radars Kirby Cook, NWS, Seattle

Session VI: Regional Weather Prediction

9:45 AM Update on the Regional Prediction System Cliff Mass, UW

10:00 - 10:30 AM Break with refreshments

10:30 AM Will it Snow or Not?: Determining and Communicating Uncertainty. Mindy Brugman, Ruping Mo, Anne McCarthy and David Jones, Jim Goosen and Trevor Smith. Environmental Canada, Vancouver, CA

10:45 AM Current Status of Road Weather Information Systems and Technology S. Edward Boselly, WeatherSolutions, Inc.

11:00 AM Updating short-term probabilistic weather forecasts using recent observations Thomas Nipen, Greg West, and Roland Stull, Atmos. Sci. UBC

11:15 AM Decision Support for Army Aviation using Probabilistic Weather Forecasts Tony Eckel, NWS, OST

11:30 AM Use of Bayesian Model Averaging for Visibility Adrian Raftery, Statistics, UW

11:45 AM Flexible Discussion Time

12:00 - 1:00 PM Lunch (included with registration)

Session VII: Social Media and Weather Communication

1:00 PM Establishment of the NWS Seattle Facebook Page Danny Mercer Forecaster/Facebook Program Leader,Ted Buehner Warning Coordination Meteorologist

1:15 PM The KOMO weather blog Scott Sistek

1:30 PM Experiences as a weather blogger Cliff Mass

1:45 PM Plenary Discussion

Session VIII: Regional Weather

2:00 PM Convective Snowbands: A Case for A Storm-Based Approach to Winter Weather Hazards Naeemah.Cushmeer, NWS, Seattle

2:15 PM Preparing for and responding to extreme precipitation at Seattle Public Utilities: A review of the December 12th, 2010 atmospheric river event James Rufo Hill, Seattle Public Utilities

2:30 - 3:00 PM Break with refreshments

3:00 PM Analysis of High-Resolution Model Output for the Yakima Smoke Intrusion Case Study, 28 September 2009 Miriam Rorig, Robert Solomon, Candace Krull, and Brian Potter, AirFire Team. Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences Lab, USDA Forest Service, Seattle, WA

3:10 PM Winter-time lightning during cold air outbreaks over the North Pacific Ocean Lynn McMurdie, Atmospheric Sciences, UW

3:30 PM The Effects of the Puget Sound Convergence Zone east of the Cascade Crest Jeremy Wolf, National Weather Service Forecast Office, Spokane, WA

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