Fall and Winter

The days are getting shorter. The nights are getting longer. There is a touch of fall in the air.  Soon the leaves will begin to turn color. Fall will soon arrive and our fall and winter storm seasons are close at hand.

As a weather spotter, are you ready?  October marks the start of our wind storm season and runs through early March.  Flood season usually begins in November and rolls through February, and this year is complicated by the limited capacity of Howard Hanson Dam and the greater likelihood of flooding in the Green River valley.  The lowland snow season usually begins in mid November and can run into early March.  

What is expected for this winter?  All indications in the central and eastern Pacific ocean tropical waters is that El Nino has developed and will continue through the winter season. Sea surface temperatures in this region of the Pacific are warmer than normal. Usually, El Nino brings warmer than average temperatures to the Pacific Northwest while there is no strong precipitation trend.

The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s outlook for the Pacific Northwest at this point currently indicates for this fall and winter increased odds of warmer than normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.  The seasonal outlooks are updated on the third Thursday of each month and as this El Nino develops, the seasonal outlook can adjust. Monitor our web site at www.weather.gov/seattle for the latest information.

El Ninos tend to produce a rather quiet winter in comparison with La Nina or ‘neutral’ conditions.  El Nino winter seasons have produced more limited hazardous winter weather like strong wind storms, lowland snow and heavy rainfall events with flooding.  Yet, all of these events can and have occurred. For instance, a recent El Nino season significant event was the widespread flooding in early November 2006 that was followed by a couple of strong wind events in the middle of the month and a lowland snow event near the end of the month – a busy November indeed!

As a weather spotter, now is the time to prepare your home and business, and review your winter weather reporting criteria.  Ensure your rain gauge is clean, free of obstructions like trees and structures, and ready to go.  Ensure your anemometer is in good operating order.  If you do not have an anemometer, have your Beaufort scale handy.  In addition, ensure your snow boards and marking flags are ready to be placed in an unobstructed location, usually near your rain gauge.  When prepared, you’ll be ready to report any heavy rainfall amounts, strong winds and snow amounts.  To top it off, fall is our secondary maximum for thunderstorms during the year.  Have a safe winter and we look forward to your weather spotter reports this season.

Summer heatwave and Sept Tornado

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Match the average first day of 32 degrees or colder with these western Washington locations.

                                                                            Average First Freeze Date

Forks                                                                                     Oct 30

Paradise Ranger Station                                                          Oct 26

Bellingham                                                                              Aug 28

Olympia                                                                                  Oct 23

Sea-Tac Airport                                                                      Nov 9

Coupeville                                                                               Oct 7

Weather Review

Here is a link to the Office of the Washington State Climatologist, where you can find Weather reviews for each month.

www.climate.washington.edu/newsletter/

Click this link for NWS graphs

Amateur Radio News

 HF Radio is coming to NWS Seattle.  The radio arrived at the end of August and will be installed and operational soon.  HF joins the current suite of radios including VHF, UHF, 800 MHz and the state CemNet radio. The amateur radio team led by Brian Daly – WB7OML, and NWS Seattle forecaster and amateur radio program manager Jeff Michalski, are working to enhance NWS Seattle – WX7SEA - amateur radio workstation operations.  For instance, they are working on re-establishing the packet radio system that will permit a number of NWS Seattle forecast office products to be posted on bulletin boards throughout western Washington.

And as a reminder, NWS Seattle has permission to use the K7PP repeater system that has service throughout much of western Washington at 147.20 MHz.  The K7PP repeater system is undergoing an upgrade.  NWS Seattle can use the system during significant weather events, other hazardous events like a major earthquake, exercises and special events like the Skywarn Recognition Day event coming up on the first Saturday of December. We hope you can join us for this annual event again this year. Several amateurs that live close to the forecast office can join our forecast operations by working the amateur radio workstation during such events in support of the NWS Seattle mission.

Look for more news about the NWS Seattle amateur radio workstation and the all-hazards weather support in the near future!

CoCoRaHS Anniversary

            The Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow (CoCoRaHS) network has been a huge success in western Washington - all thanks to the hundreds of observers across our area. The program continues to grow with over 600 volunteer observers across Washington. The nationwide goal is to reach 20,000 observers across the U.S. by the end of 2010.

            CoCoRaHS data was especially useful this past spring and summer despite our dry conditions. Reporting 0.00” is just as important to us as recording measurable precipitation! We used CoCoRaHS data to see which areas were drier than normal and when widespread rainfall occurred.

Although hail pads are not required, we do appreciate all hail reports across the region. Thanks to some of our Lewis and Pierce county observers for sending hail reports last June. These reports are sent directly to the meteorologists at the National Weather Service.

Lastly, with our wet season right around the corner, now is the time to get your gauge ready. Please ensure that your gauge is unobstructed and located away from any structures. Also, don’t forget to send “Multi-Day Precip” reports if you are out of town.

If you haven’t done so already, please check out www.cocorahs.org for more information about the CoCoRaHS program. There’s no limit to the number of observers…so join today!

 Moving? -  If you have moved or are planning to move soon, please let us know your new address.  We often get a number of spotter mailings returned with changed or unable to forward post office messages.  If you have moved to another western Washington county, we will need to change your spotter number to that county.  If you move beyond our area, we can forward your information to the corresponding NWS office.  Please contact our database manager at jay.neher@noaa.gov .  Thank you in advance!

 Spotter Training Update -   Spotter training sessions are planned this fall in many parts of western Washington. Targeted areas include a joint Clallam/Jefferson county session, Mason county, Skagit county, San Juan county, Snohomish county, King county as well as a joint city of Auburn and Puyallup session. 

Look for spotter training announcements either in your mailbox or via our web site here.  The training helps new and veteran spotters, including interested citizens, amateur radio and law enforcement personnel. If you want to attend one of these sessions, please RSVP as indicated in the training announcement.

How To Program Your New Weather Radio - Did you get a new weather radio during the September Weather Radio Awareness Month campaign? New “How to Program Your Weather Radio” slide show presentations are available on the state emergency management web site, weather radio link. These slide shows take you step by step through the process of properly programming your weather radio for use at your home or business. The slide shows were produced in cooperation with these weather radio manufacturers – Reecom, Midland, First Alert, Oregon Scientific. To view these slide shows, visit emd.wa.gov and go to the Weather Radio in Washington link.

Back to National Weather Service Seattle's main page www.weather.gov/seattle.