Pacific Northwest Weather Workshop – 2010

 

5 & 6 March

Building 9 Auditorium

NOAA Western Regional Campus

7600 Sand Point Way, Seattle, WA 98115

 

Friday, March 5

 

12 - 1 PM        Registration

 

1:00-1:10        Welcome and Meeting Plans – Brad Colman
Meteorologist in Charge, NOAA/NWS, Seattle

 

Session I:  Alaska Weather

 

1:15-1:30        Evidence of Post-Frontal Mountain Wave Enhanced Wind Shear in Juneau Alaska.  Carl Dierking and Frederick Fritsch, NOAA/NWS, Juneau

 

1:30-1:45        Bering Sea Super Storm of 2009. James Nelson, NOAA/NWS, Anchorage

 

1:45-2:00        A Comparison of Local WRF Modeling to Operational Models during a High Wind Event in Southeast Alaska.  Paul Suffern, NOAA/NWS, Juneau

 

2:00-2:15        Using the Thermal Wind Relationship to Improve Offshore and Coastal Forecasts of Extratropical Cyclone Winds. James B. Truitt, NOAA/NWS, Juneau

 

Session II:  Communication and Education

 

2:15-2:30        The COMET Program:  20 Years of Innovative and Evolving Education and Training for the Atmospheric and Related Sciences.  Christopher D. Hill, UCAR/COMET

 

2:30-2:45        Communicating forecast uncertainty:  Public perception of weather forecast uncertainty.  Sonia Savelli and Susan Joslyn, Department of Psychology, University of Washington

 

Session III:  Northwest Summer Weather and Prediction

 

2:45-3:00        The Tale of Tumblebug and the Thermal Trough.  Julia Ruthford. NOAA/NWS, Northwest Interagency Coordination Center

 

3:00-3:30        BREAK WITH REFRESHMENTS

 

3:30-3:45        On the Diagnosis of Summertime Rainfall Events along the East Slopes of the Cascades.  N.A. Bond, A.M. Chiodi and N.K. Larkin

 

3:45-4:00        Downdraft CAPE as an Indicator of Wildfire Growth in Washington and Oregon.  Brian E. Potter, USDA Forest Service, Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences Laboratory

 

4:00-4:15        Coastal summer stratus in the Pacific Northwest:  Climatic context and the 2009 season.  James A. Johnstone, Visiting Scientist, JISAO

 

Session IV:     Observations and Forecast Verification

 

4:15-4:30        A Quantitative Snowfall Analysis for the Verification of NWS Snow Amount Grids.  David T. Myrick NOAA/NWS, Western Region Headquarters, Salt Lake City, UT

 

4:30-4:45        Global Thunderstorm Observations from the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN).  Robert Holzworth and James Weinman, Departments of Earth and Space Sciences and Physics, University of Washington

 

4:45-5:00        On the Reliability of Temperature and Wind-speed Forecasts from Fine-scale Ensemble Reforecasts: The Effect of Correlations on Rank Histograms.  Caren Marzban, Ranran Wang, Scott Sandgathe, Department of Statistics and The Applied Physics Lab, University of Washington

 

Workshop Banquet

 

6:00-9:00 PM Workshop Banquet at the Talaris Conference Center.  4000 NE 41st St, Seattle, WA 98105

 

6:00-7:00 PM    Icebreaker – no host bar

 

7:00-8:00 PM    Buffet Dinner

 

8:00-9:00 PM Special Presentation:  The mystery of terroir in the Pacific Northwest (terroir is the relationship between geology, soils, climate and wine)

                        Includes a bit of wine tasting as well!

Speaker:  Professor Scott Burns, Portland State University

 

Saturday, March 6

 

Session V:  Heavy Precipitation, Flooding, and Snowpack

 

8:00-8:15        Joint Planning for Howard Hanson Dam and Potential Green River Major Flooding.  Ted Buehner, NOAA/NWS, Seattle

 

8:15-8:30        Macro Trigger Point Thresholds for Longer Forecast Lead Times on the Green River.  Brad Colman, NOAA/NWS, Seattle

 

8:30-8:45        New observations and guidance products in support of Howard Hanson Dam efforts.  Kirby Cook, NOAA/NWS, Seattle

 

8:45-9:00        Circulation variability and intense precipitation: a case study of ENSO and the American West.  Nicole Feldl, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington

 

9:00-9:15        Four Flood Stories: Atmospheric Rivers and their Impacts on Recent Historic Flood Events in Western Washington.  Larry Schick, Water Management - US Army Corps of Engineers, Seattle District

 

9:15-9:30        Wintertime Extreme Precipitation and Flooding Events along the Pacific Northwest Coast.  Mike Warner, University of Washington

 

9:30-10:00      BREAK WITH REFRESHMENTS

 

10:00-10:15    The Seattle Rainwatch System.  James Rufo Hill, Seattle Pacific University, and Cliff Mass, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington

 

10:15-10:30    Dynamic contribution to variations in Cascade snowpack: Application of partial least squares regression.  Brian V. Smoliak and John M. Wallace, University of Washington, Mark T. Stoelinga, 3TIER, Inc., and Todd P. Mitchell, JISAO, University of Washington

 

10:30-10:45    Mesoscale controls on the mountainside rain-snow line: physical mechanisms and regional climate impacts.  Justin R Minder, University of Washington

 

10:45-11:00    Coastal Radar Update.  Cliff Mass, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington

 

Session VI:  Regional Weather Prediction

 

11:00-11:15    The value proposition behind a nationwide short range forecast capability.  Randall P. Benson, Justin Sharp, Iberdrola Energy

 

11:15-11:30    Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting:  A Review of Status and Challenges.  Eric P. Grimit and Kristin A. Larson, 3TIER, Inc.

 

11:30-11:45    Improving Precipitation Phase Identification in Hydrological Models.  James Feiccabrino,  Luleå, University of Technology - Department of Geosciences

 

11:45-12:00    Status of the NorthWest High Resolution Prediction System. Cliff Mass, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington

 

12:00-1:00      Lunch (included with registration)

Choice of enchilada, rice, beans, chips, soda

 

Session VII:    Local Weather, Its Impact, and Prediction

 

1:00-1:15        Systematic Wind Forecast Errors by the Mesoscale Models over Western Washington. Part I.  Jay A. Albrecht, NOAA/NWS, Seattle

 

1:15-1:30        Systematic Wind Forecast Errors by the Mesoscale Models over Western Washington. Part II.  Naeemah Cushmeer, NOAA/NWS, Seattle

1:30-1:45        Performance of Power Delivery Systems during Winter Storms.  Dorothy A. Reed, Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington

 

1:45-2:00        Update of Sea Level Pressure Forecast Accuracy of the NCEP's NAM and GFS models in the Pacific Northwest. Lynn McMurdie, University of Washington

 

2:00-2:15        Research Support Efforts for the 2010 Vancouver Winter Olympic Games.  Mindy Brugman, Coastal and Mountain Meteorology Lab (CMML), MSC Environment Canada (EC)

 

2:15-2:30        Historical Weather View II.  Jay Albrecht, NOAA/NWS, Seattle

 

2:30-2:45        Optimal Design of a Climatological Network: Beyond Practical Considerations.  Guillaume S. Mauger, Karin A. Bumbaco, Gregory J. Hakim, and Philip W. Mote.  University of Washington

 

2:45-3:15        BREAK WITH REFRESHMENTS

 

3:15-3:30        Oregon Tornadoes - More Fact Than Fiction.  George Miller

 

3:30-3:45        The May 6th, 2009, Northeast Oregon Mini-Supercell and Tornado.  Douglas Weber, NOAA/NWS, Pendleton

 

3:45-4:00        The Enumclaw tornado.  Carl Cerniglia and Allen Kam, NOAA/NWS, Seattle

 

4:00-4:15        Focusing on the Skies: Pacific Northwest Weather Photography.  Reid Wolcott, University of Washington