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AFD

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KSLC 270953
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
353 AM MDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON THEN
OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN UTAH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z TUE)...WARM DRY RIDGE CONDITIONS WITH PRETTY
MUCH CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. CONTINUED AIRMASS WARMING SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO
HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEG ABOVE YESTERDAYS MILD READINGS WITH TEMPS
REACHING THE 70S IN MOST VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST SAT AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF CROSSES THE
NRN ROCKIES AND SENDS A LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT INTO THE NRN CWA
DURING THE AFTN. THE FRONT THEN HEADS SOUTH OVERNIGHT STALLING
ACROSS SRN UT ON SUN. MODELS INDICATE THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED CONVECTION BUT DONT SEE MUCH THREAT OF
MEASURABLE RAIN SO HAVE LIMITED POPS TO THE NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS
SAT AFTN SHIFTING INTO THE SRN MTNS OVERNIGHT THRU SUN.

THE FRONT COMES THRU NRN UT LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO ALLOW MAX
TEMPS TO WARM A BIT FROM TODAY WITH MID 70S POSSIBLE FOR
SLC...ONLY A COUPLE DEG SHY OF THE RECORD OF 77 FOR THE DATE.
TEMPS SHOULD REACH MID 70S TO MID 80S CENTRAL AND SRN UT.

EXPECT SOME COOLING ACROSS THE NORTH SUN BUT AS PREV SHIFT
NOTED...ONLY DOWN TO ABOUT 10 DEG ABV NORMAL INSTEAD OF 15-20. THE
SOUTH COOLS A LITTLE.

EC SENDS ANOTHER WEAK GRAZING TROF THRU NRN UT SUN NIGHT/MON WITH
A LITTLE MORE COOLING WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A DRY W TO NW FLOW
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS. THE THREAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION
PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTH AND INCLUDED THIS NORTHWARD INTO THE UINTA
MTNS MON AS A NOD TO THE EC ALTHO CONFIDENCE FOR THIS IS NOT VERY
HIGH.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z TUESDAY)...IN LARGE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BECOME
MORE CONSISTENT MODEL TO MODEL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD IN THE
LATEST 00Z RUNS. GIVEN PREVIOUS INCONSISTENCIES AND SPREAD BOTH
MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL...CONFIDENCE IN
MOST RECENT CONSISTENCY IS ONLY MARGINALLY BETTER THAN IT HAS BEEN.

DETAILS...NORTHERN BRANCH STREAM WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH A
TWO ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRANSLATING EAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES IN THE TUE-FRI TIMEFRAME. THE FIRST LOOKS TO ONLY
CLIP FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS LATE TUESDAY...THIS ALLOWING A SHALLOW
AND MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT TO TRACK SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE STATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. FRONT WILL BE WORKING
ON A VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...WITH BULK OF COOLING OCCURRING AT
AND BELOW H7 AS COLD CORE OF THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA. THOUGH LARGELY DRY...THIS FRONT SHOULD LOWER TEMPS FAIRLY
CLOSE TO CLIMO ON WED HOWEVER. LOOKING AT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE MTNS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH WITH FRONT ATTM...AND HAVE TRENDED
TEMPS COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF PASSAGE.

GLOBAL GUIDANCE PORTRAYS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TO BE SOMEWHAT MORE
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN THU INTO FRI...WITH AIRMASS
SLIGHTLY COOLER FROM A MORE NORTHERLY TAP ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL
BRITCOL. AMPLIFICATION AND EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH IS QUITE SIMILAR
IN GLOBALS THOUGH SPREAD IN TIMING OF THE LEADING EDGE COLD FRONT
REMAINS 6 HRS OFF OR SO. BY 06Z FRI BOTH GFS/ECMWF ARE INDICATING H7
TEMPS FALLING TO -10 C AT KSLC...SO AGAIN MOST CONFIDENT IN ANOTHER
COOLDOWN WITH TEMPS DROPPING OT 5 TO POSSIBLY 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
IN THE NORTH LATE NEXT WEEK. AMPLIFICATION OVERHEAD AND BREADTH OF
COLD ADVECTION DEPICTED MORE APT TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A BIT OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA IF THESE SOLUTIONS HOLD TRUE. FOR NOW INCREASED POPS
TO CLIMO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE...BUT MAY NEED TO INCREASE THIS TREND IF
MODELS CONTINUE TO STAND PAT W/THIS.

BOTTOM LINE...LARGELY A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH POTENTIAL
OF A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH IMPACTING THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN LATE
WEEK OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT THE
KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 19Z PER NORM...WITH
CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS BEING MAINTAINED UNDER CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&




SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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