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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KSLC 281718
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1018 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER TROF WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY THEN SHIFT EAST TUESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH
THIS MORNING. HEAVY SNOW IN THE CEDAR CITY AREA PROMPTED AN
ISSUANCE OF A WEATHER ADVISORY THERE THROUGH 1PM TODAY AS ROADS
BECAME SNOW COVERED QUICKLY. ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IS A
WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE. AT KANAB THE TEMPERATURE IS 36
WHICH IS UP 6 DEGREES SINCE 6AM. THEREFORE HAVE CANCELLED THE SNOW
ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH DUE TO WARMING AND PRECIP BECOMING
SHOWERY...SO EVEN WHERE THE PRECIP IS STILL SNOW THIS MORNING IT
IS NOT WIDESPREAD.

FARTHER NORTH THE POPS AND QPF WERE INCREASED FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND CASTLE COUNTRY AS GOOD 700MB
SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE MOVES INTO AREA. GFS AND NAM
SHOWING FROM 0.25 TO 0.45 OF AN INCH THROUGH 00Z SUN IN THIS AREA.
WITH PRECIP ABOUT TO BREAK OUT IN THIS AREA SOON HAVE LOWERED
TEMPS SOME AT PRICE AND EASTERN UTAH VALLEYS NORTH OF I-70.

ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH BACKED OFF ON THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION
UNTIL AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. HIGH CLOUDS OVER AREA NOW AND OTHER THAN
THE GFS ALL OTHER MODELS SHOWING PRECIP HOLDING OFF WHICH LOOKS
REASONABLE AS JET REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH AND THE SHORTWAVE
OVER SOUTHWEST UTAH THIS MORNING DISSIPATES SOUTH OF UTAH COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KSLC INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. EXPECT A CEILING BELOW 7000 FEET TO DEVELOP AFTER
06Z...BUT THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF CIGS LOWERING BY 03Z. MVFR
CEILING AND VISIBILITY IN SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z
WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND
THIS AFTERNOON...SWITCHING TO A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND LATE THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR UTZ012-013-517-
518.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR UTZ016.

WY...NONE.
&&




PUBLIC...STRUTHWOLF
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)