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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KSLC 191012
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
412 AM MDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z THU)...A HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE OR COAST
WITH A WEAK LOW SOUTH OF IT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A NWLY FLOW
OVER THE CWA. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE ERN
UINTA MTNS ACROSS SWRN WY AND INTO SERN ID. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
DROPPING SWD WILL ASSIST DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK CONVECTION ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THIS AFTN SWD INTO THE SRN MTNS. THE PROXIMITY OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOLDS TEMPS ACROSS THE NRN CWA STEADY AND EXPECT
MAXES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY OR JUST A LITTLE WARMER DUE TO A WARMER
START.

THE TRAILING END OF THIS WEAK WAVE AND WEAK DEFORMATION ACROSS SRN
UT AHEAD OF THE WEAK OFFSHORE LOW GIVES CONVECTION A BOOST AGAIN
MON BUT MAINLY FROM THE UINTAS SWD. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM A
LITTLE AS THE HIGH SHIFTS INLAND.

THE RIDGE AND WEAK CLOSED LOW SHIFT FARTHER INLAND TUE WITH
CONTINUED AIRMASS WARMING AND INCREASING DEFORMATION ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SRN UT. THIS BRINGS WARMER TEMPS AND A CONTINUED
THREAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION...POSSIBLY LESS TERRAIN BASED.

THE GFS DEPICTS THE WEAK LOW EJECTING INTO THE GREAT BASIN WED AS
A NEW CLOSED LOW DROPS DOWN THE COAST. HOWEVER THE EC IS WEAKER
WITH BOTH FEATURES AND SENDS THE OFFSHORE LOW QUITE A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH WITH LESS INTERACTION BETWEEN THEM. HAVE RAISED POPS FOR WED
TO REFLECT AN INCREASING THREAT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO POOR MODEL AGREEMENT AND POOR RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY ON THE DETAILS IN BOTH.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z THURSDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS (IN LARGE PART) HAVE
COME TO A CONSENSUS REGARDING THE LONG WAVE PATTERN DURING THE PERIOD
...BUT MANY DETAILS CONTINUE TO CHANGE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
AS PREVIOUSLY NOTED. SPECIFICALLY THE EXTENT OF SPLIT OF A TROUGH
ORIGINATING IN THE GULF OF AK MID/LATE WEEK AND FOCUSED PLACEMENT
OF ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE ENERGY THEREAFTER. REGARDLESS...00Z
GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN DEVELOP A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOCAL/BAJA AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD THAT WILL THEN TRANSLATE ENE THROUGH
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE WEEK. WHETHER OR NOT THIS TROUGH REMAINS
CLOSED IN NATURE OR BECOMES MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE REMAINS TO BE
SEEN AS WELL.

BOTTOM LINE...THE CHANCE FOR PRIMARILY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS TO INCREASE WELL INTO THE
PERIOD WITH A MOST LIKELY PEAK IN AREAL COVERAGE COMING
FRIDAY...THIS WITH PASSAGE OF THE CORE OF TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. ONLY
CHANGES IN POP GRIDS THIS ROUND WAS TO INCREASE PROBABILITIES IN THE
MOUNTAINS BY 5 TO 10 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY THE SPINE RUNNING FROM THE
SOUTHERN MTNS NE TO THE UINTAS. RETAINED BULK OF PREVIOUS FORECAST
DETAILS FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MINIMAL AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO A LIGHT NORTHWEST BETWEEN
17-19Z PER NORM AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&




SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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