Mild moist air mass ahead of an upper low in California

October 4-7 2006:

Numerous thunderstorms and heavy rainfall

across the deserts and mountains: flash flooding

Highlight Precipitation Totals
More Precipitation Totals
Pictures of Event
Radar Loops
Radar Precipitation Estimates
Satellite Loops
GPS Satellite Data
Satellite Precipitable Water
Lightning Plot
Hydrographs
Model Analyses
Model Forecasts
Surface Observations

A large upper level storm system interacted with subtropical moisture and produced widespread rain across all of Utah.  The rain was very heavy, 
especially in south central and eastern Utah, as well as in parts of the deserts and valleys of northern Utah. Initially, scattered showers and thunderstorms
occurred Wednesday morning October 4th, mainly across central and northern Utah.  Then numerous showers and thunderstorms developed across
the region on Thursday October 5th and continued through Thursday night.  Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms developed on Friday
October 6th and continued into Friday evening.  Additional showers occurred across northern Utah on Saturday.

Tavaputs	5.75	9000 ft
Bruin Pt	3.84	10,000
Larb Hollow	3.83	Boulder Mtn
Hanksville	3.73
Hite Marina	3.21
Capitol Reef	3.14
Silver Falls	3.13	3.51 5-day total
Snowbasin	3.11	5-day total
Big Sage	3.02	3.85 5-day total
Bryce Canyon	2.97
Horse Ridge	2.90	8500 ft
Buck Flat	2.83
Escalante	2.66
Big Water	2.63
Lake	2.53	2.97 5 day total
Alta Collins	2.50
Bullfrog	2.40
Ferron	2.39
Joes Valley	2.21
Hanna	1.85
Price Apt	1.77
Camel Back	1.21
Aragonite	1.18

Layton or Big Cottonwood?

Near Lake Powell

Paria

Blanding

Kanab

Hanksville

Lake Powell

St George

#Green River

Paria

Radar Loops

Mosaic composite reflectivity from 1600 to 2300 UTC 5 October 2006. The first flooding occurred in southeast Utah.

KMTX base reflectivity from 2101 UTC 6 October to 0358 UTC 7 October 2006.

KICX base reflectivity loop from 2356 UTC 5 October through 2354 UTC 6 October 2006.

KICX storm total precipitation ending at 1058 UTC 6 October 2006.

KICX storm total precipitation ending at 1946 UTC 6 October 2006.

Satellite Loops

GOES infrared loop from 1015 UTC 5 October to 2300 UTC 6 October 2006. A spotter in the Tavaputs Plateau

at 9000 feet reported 2.75 inches from 930 am Thursday through Thursday evening, then another 2.25 inches

at 1120 am Friday, followed by 0.75 inches at 430 pm Friday.

...STORM TOTALS...

...NORTHERN VALLEYS... LAYTON BENCH 1.94 EAST LAYTON 1.92 NORTHEAST OGDEN BENCH 1.62 OGDEN PIONEER 1.58 PLEASANT GROVE 1.55 SOUTH OGDEN 1.51 SMITHFIELD 1.04 VERNON 0.97 HERRIMAN 0.96 NORTH SALT LAKE BENCH 0.95 SALT LAKE UPPER AVENUES 0.87 OLYMPUS COVE 0.86 TOOELE 0.85 SOUTH JORDAN 0.75 PROVO AIRPORT 0.73 HEBER CITY 0.62 SALT LAKE AIRPORT 0.49 TAYLORSVILLE 0.38

...NORTHWEST DESERTS... CEDAR MOUNTAIN 4600 FT 1.56 DUGWAY CAMEL BACK 1.21 ARAGONITE 1.18 DUGWAY DURAND ROAD 1.15

...EASTERN VALLEYS...CASTLE COUNTRY AND UINTA BASIN... FERRON 2.39 HANNA 1.85 PRICE AIRPORT 1.77 ALTAMONT 1.39

...SAN RAFAEL SWELL...LAKE POWELL AND SOUTHEAST UTAH... HANKSVILLE 3.73 HITE MARINA 3.21 CAPITOL REEF 3.14 BIG WATER 2.63 BULLFROG 2.07 (2.40 5 DAYS)

...SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH GRAND STAIRCASE... SILVER FALLS 5700 FT 3.13 (3.51 5 DAYS) BIG SAGE 3.02 (3.83 5 DAYS) ESCALANTE 2.66 LAKE 7400 FT 2.53 (2.97 5 DAYS)

...CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST VALLEYS... MUD SPRINGS 1.53 BRIMSTONE RESERVOIR 1.48 SEVIER RESERVOIR 0.89 TULE VALLEY 0.82 DELTA 0.80 SPRING CITY 0.79 MILFORD AIRPORT 0.79 CEDAR CITY 0.74 CEDAR CITY AIRPORT 0.65 ST GEORGE 0.63 VEYO 0.47

...NORTHERN MOUNTAINS... TAVAPUTS 9100 FT 5.75 BRUIN PT 10,000 FT BOOK CLIFFS 3.84 (5 DAY) SNOWBASIN BASE 3.11 (5 DAY) HORSE RIDGE 8500 FT 2.90 ALTA COLLINS 9600 FT 2.50 (5 DAY) SUNDANCE 7500 FT 2.05 (5 DAY) MOON LAKE 1.82 ASPEN MOUNTAIN 7500 FT 1.46 (5 DAY) HEWINTA 9200 FT 0.99 OTTER CREEK 7200 FT 0.39

...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS... LARB HOLLOW 8400 FT BOULDER 3.83 BRYCE CANYON 7900 FT 2.91 BUCK FLAT 8000 FT 2.83 JOES VALLEY 8700 FT 2.21 GRASSY LAKE 8900 FT 2.13 LOST CREEK SEVIER PLATEAU 1.07

Hydrographs

Model Analyses

RUC 4-panel analysis at 0100 UTC 7 October 2006.

NAM 4-panel analysis at 1800 UTC 5 October 2006.

NAM 4-panel analysis at 1200 UTC 4 October 2006.

NLDN 24-h plot ending at 0200 UTC 7 October 2006.

2100 UTC October 4 2006 SSM/I precipitable water.

GOES total precipitable water at 0400 UTC 6 October 2006.

Composite precipitable water image on October 5 2006 .

Model Forecasts

Model Precipitation Forecasts

NAM and GFS run total QPF from 1200 UTC 4 October ending at 1200 UTC 5 October 2006.

NAM and GFS run total QPF from 0600 UTC 5 October ending at 0000 UTC 8 October 2006.

NAM and GFS run total QPF from 0600 UTC 4 October ending at 1800 UTC 7 October 2006.

NAM and GFS run total QPF from 1200 UTC 5 October ending at 1800 UTC 7 October 2006.

NAM and GFS run total QPF from 1800 UTC 5 October ending at 1200 UTC 7 October 2006.

NAM and GFS run total QPF from 1200 UTC 4 October ending at 0600 UTC 7 October 2006.

NAM and GFS run total QPF from 1200 UTC 4 October ending at 0000 UTC 7 October 2006.

NAM and GFS run total QPF from 1200 UTC 4 October ending at 1200 UTC 6 October 2006.

NAM and GFS run total QPF from 1200 UTC 4 October ending at 0000 UTC 6 October 2006.

NAM and GFS run total QPF from 1200 and 1800 UTC 4 October ending at 0000 UTC 6 October 2006.

Model QPF compared to local WRF-NMM

Observations

Beus Canyon RAWS

06 Oct 10:10 pm	47	44	88	SSE	G15	43	55	0	--	8.75		1.08	OK
06 Oct 9:10 pm	47	44	89	WNW	6G13	47	55	0	--	8.75	0.05	1.08	OK
06 Oct 8:10 pm	46	45	96	WNW	5G12	45	55	0	--	8.70	0.20	1.03	OK
06 Oct 7:10 pm	49	49	100	NE	1G14	49	55	0	--	8.50	0.73	0.83	OK
06 Oct 6:10 pm	50	50	99	E	3G09	52	55	4	--	7.77	0.10	0.10	OK
06 Oct 5:10 pm	56	52	85	ENE	G05	55	31.6	94	48%	7.67

Alta Collins

07 Oct 12:00 am	32	0.15	1.00	1.00	OK
06 Oct 11:00 pm	33	0.03	2.00	1.00	OK
06 Oct 10:00 pm	33	0.01	2.00	0.00	OK
06 Oct 9:00 pm	32	0.04	1.00	0.00	OK
06 Oct 8:00 pm	32	0.02	3.00	0.00	OK
06 Oct 7:00 pm	34	0.17	0.00	0.00	OK
06 Oct 6:00 pm	39	0.15	4.00	0.00	OK

Weather Conditions for:
BRUIN POINT, UT (BRPU1)
Elev: 10200 ft; Latitude: 39.6092; Longitude: -110.2897

Current time:	Sat, 07 Oct 23:41 pm (MDT)
Most Recent Observation:	Sat, 07 Oct 11:40 pm (MDT)

Time	Temp.	Dew	Relative	Wind	Wind	Wind	Fuel	Solar	Solar	Precip	Precip	Precip	Precip	Quality
		Point	Humidity	Chill	Direction	Speed	Temp	Radiation	Pct	Accumulated	1 hour	6 hour	24 hour	Control
(MDT)	(f)	(f)	(%)	(f)		(mph)	(f)	*(W/mm)**	of psbl	(inches)	(inches)	(inches)	(inches)
07 Oct 11:40 pm	32	29	89		E	1G05	30	0	--	9.14			0.31	OK
07 Oct 10:40 pm	33	29	84		ENE	G04	30	0	--	9.14			0.36	OK
07 Oct 7:40 pm	32	27	81		W	G06	31	1	--	9.14			0.83	OK
07 Oct 6:40 pm	37	28	70		ESE	G07	33	31	12%	9.14				OK
07 Oct 5:40 pm	43	27	53		ESE	G08	38	131	24%	9.14			0.88	OK
07 Oct 4:40 pm	45	28	52		SSE	2G11	42	310	40%	9.14			0.88	OK
07 Oct 3:40 pm	48	29	47		ESE	3G11	58	746	77%	9.14			0.89	OK
07 Oct 2:40 pm	49	31	50		SSW	3G13	59	866	81%	9.14			0.92	OK
07 Oct 1:40 pm	45	29	54		WNW	4G14	53	840	76%	9.14			1.04	OK
07 Oct 12:40 pm	45	26	48		NW	3G15	51	818	78%	9.14			1.25	OK
07 Oct 11:40 am	41	21	44		WSW	6G17	42	679	75%	9.14			1.40	OK
07 Oct 10:40 am	36	25	63		S	4G21	33	190	27%	9.14		0.01	1.50	OK
07 Oct 9:40 am	34	23	63		WNW	7G21	30	127	29%	9.14		0.01	1.70	OK
07 Oct 8:40 am	34	28	78		SSE	6G21	30	92	66%	9.14		0.01	1.76	OK
07 Oct 7:40 am	32	29	89		SW	8G20	33	1	--	9.14		0.05	1.88	OK
07 Oct 6:40 am	33	31	94		NE	7G25	32	0	--	9.14		0.19	1.94	OK
07 Oct 5:40 am	32	29	87	24	SSW	9G30	32	0	--	9.14	0.01	0.31	2.08	OK
07 Oct 4:40 am	33	32	98	25	NNW	10G24	34	0	--	9.13		0.35	2.13	OK
07 Oct 3:40 am	35	34	98		S	8G18	33	0	--	9.13		0.35	2.13	OK
07 Oct 2:40 am	35	34	98		WSW	5G26	35	0	--	9.13	0.04	0.48	2.14	OK
07 Oct 1:40 am	35	34	98		ESE	8G25	35	0	--	9.09	0.14	0.78	2.10	OK
07 Oct 12:40 am	37	36	98		N	8G18	37	0	--	8.95	0.12		2.01	OK
06 Oct 11:40 pm	36	35	98		SW	6G23	37	0	--	8.83	0.05	0.57	2.04	OK
06 Oct 10:40 pm	38	37	98		S	5G13	38	0	--	8.78		0.52	2.02	OK
06 Oct 9:40 pm	36	35	98		S	3G16	37	0	--	8.78	0.13	0.53	2.23	OK
06 Oct 8:40 pm	37	36	98		S	4G23	37	0	--	8.65	0.34	0.43		OK
06 Oct 7:40 pm	38	37	98		SSW	7G18	40	0	--	8.31		0.21	1.84	OK
06 Oct 5:40 pm	38	37	98		SSW	6G12	40	64	12%	8.26		0.52	1.79	OK
06 Oct 4:40 pm	39	38	98		SSW	5G17	40	67	8%	8.26	0.01	0.62	1.83	OK
06 Oct 3:40 pm	37	36	98		SSW	6G14	39	77	8%	8.25	0.03	0.81	1.98	OK
06 Oct 2:40 pm	38	37	98		SW	G18	38	71	7%	8.22	0.12	0.84	2.10	OK
06 Oct 1:40 pm	37	36	98		NW	3G19	36	48	4%	8.10	0.21	0.84	2.16	OK
06 Oct 12:40 pm	39	38	98		E	4G08	39	67	6%	7.89	0.15	0.69	2.07	OK
06 Oct 11:40 am	39	38	98		NW	1G10	40	122	13%	7.74	0.10	0.68	2.05	OK
06 Oct 10:40 am	39	38	98		S	1G05	39	24	3%	7.64	0.20	0.64	2.04	OK
06 Oct 9:40 am	40	39	98		SSW	G11	42	63	14%	7.44	0.06	0.44	1.88	OK
06 Oct 8:40 am	39	38	98		E	5G08	39	13	9%	7.38	0.12	0.39	1.82	OK
06 Oct 7:40 am	38	37	98		SSE	2G14	38	0	--	7.26	0.06	0.27	1.70	OK
06 Oct 6:40 am	38	37	98		SSW	5G14	38	0	--	7.20	0.14	0.26	1.64	OK
06 Oct 5:40 am	42	41	98		WNW	5G13	42	0	--	7.06	0.06	0.27	1.50	OK
06 Oct 4:40 am	41	40	98		SSW	4G14	41	0	--	7.00		0.24	1.44	OK
06 Oct 3:40 am	40	39	98		SW	4G10	40	0	--	7.00	0.01	0.45	1.44	OK
06 Oct 2:40 am	39	38	98		W	2G10	39	0	--	6.99			1.43	OK
06 Oct 1:40 am	40	39	98		SSW	3G23	40	0	--	6.99	0.05	0.52	1.43	OK
06 Oct 12:40 am	39	38	98		SSW	5G22	39	0	--	6.94	0.15		1.38	OK
05 Oct 11:40 pm	41	40	98		SSW	9G10	41	0	--	6.79	0.03	0.32	1.23	OK
05 Oct 10:40 pm	41	40	98		NE	4G11	41	0	--	6.76	0.21	0.33	1.20	OK
05 Oct 9:40 pm	43	42	98		SSW	4G11	43	0	--	6.55		0.28	0.99	OK
05 Oct 7:40 pm	40	39	96		S	2G10	39	1	--	6.47		0.53	0.91	OK
05 Oct 5:40 pm	42	41	98		WSW	3G10	41	74	13%	6.47	0.04	0.78	0.91	OK
05 Oct 4:40 pm	40	39	98		SSE	1G22	42	29	4%	6.43	0.16	0.83	0.87	OK
05 Oct 3:40 pm	41	40	98		SSE	4G14	40	36	4%	6.27	0.15	0.71	0.71	OK
05 Oct 2:40 pm	41	40	98		S	5G20	41	46	4%	6.12	0.18	0.56	0.56	OK
05 Oct 1:40 pm	41	40	98		SSW	8G15	41	59	5%	5.94	0.12	0.38	0.38	OK
05 Oct 12:40 pm	41	40	98		NNW	6G19	41	71	7%	5.82	0.13	0.26	0.26	OK
05 Oct 11:40 am	41	40	98		NNE	5G19	43	35	4%	5.69	0.09	0.13	0.13	OK
05 Oct 10:40 am	43	42	98		SSW	9G20	42	20	3%	5.60	0.04	0.04	0.04	OK
05 Oct 9:40 am	43	41	92		W	6G22	43	44	10%	5.56				OK
05 Oct 8:40 am	43	40	88		S	8G20	45	32	21%	5.56				OK

Weather Conditions for:
LARB HOLLOW, UT (LARU1) Elev 8490 ft.

Current time:	Sun, 08 Oct 0:00 am (MDT)
Most Recent Observation:	Sun, 07 Oct 11:00 pm (MDT)

Time	Temp.	Dew	Relative	Wind	Wind	Fuel	Fuel	Solar	Solar	Battery	Precip	Precip	Precip	Precip	Quality
		Point	Humidity	Direction	Speed	Temp	Moisture	Radiation	Pct		Accumulated	1 hour	6 hour	24 hour	Control
(MDT)	(f)	(f)	(%)		(mph)	(f)	(%)	*(W/mm)**	of psbl	(volts)	(inches)	(inches)	(inches)	(inches)
07 Oct 11:00 pm	39	27	61	SE	1G04	32	15.2	0	--		24.93				OK
07 Oct 10:00 pm	40	27	60	W	2G04	34	15.1	0	--		24.93				OK
07 Oct 8:00 pm	39	27	62	WNW	2G03	34	15	0	--		24.93				OK
07 Oct 7:00 pm	42	30	62	WNW	1G04	37	14.8	13	--		24.93			0.01	OK
07 Oct 6:00 pm	44	28	54	SSW	1G07	41	14.6	31	90%		24.93			0.11	OK
07 Oct 5:00 pm	51	30	45	NE	2G08	51	14.8	433	161%		24.93			0.53	OK
07 Oct 4:00 pm	54	30	40	E	4G10	65	15.1	703	152%		24.93			0.66	OK
07 Oct 3:00 pm	55	31	39	E	3G13	68	15.7	834	138%		24.93			0.66	OK
07 Oct 2:00 pm	54	29	38	E	4G10	70	16.3	893	132%		24.93			0.66	OK
07 Oct 1:00 pm	52	26	36	S	3G11	68	16.8	883	129%		24.93			0.66	OK
07 Oct 12:00 pm	52	26	36	NNE	3G11	67	17.4	804	130%		24.93			0.66	OK
07 Oct 11:00 am	49	22	34	NNW	4G11	59	18	659	135%