AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS66 KSTO 222338
 AFDSTO
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
 335 PM PST SUN NOV 22 2009
 
 .DISCUSSION...
 ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR 
 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH LAST NIGHTS 
 SYSTEM. THIS CLOUD MASS HAS BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE AND DRIFTING 
 SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS 
 CONTINUE OVER THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS AND WILL CONTINUE 
 TO DO SO THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL SLOWLY 
 DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...POTENTIALLY MAKING WAY FOR 
 PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE VALLEY AND FAVORED MOUNTAIN 
 VALLEYS. 
 
 WARMING AND DRY TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT 
 BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP IN 
 THE GREAT BASIN ALLOWING FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS TO BLOW DOWN FAVORED 
 SIERRA CANYONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES 
 WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL THE 
 NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 
 
 .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (THANKSGIVING THROUGH SUNDAY)...
 THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A TROUGH IMPACTING THE NRN CAL 
 ON THU AND INTO FRI.  BUT THE GFS...EC AND GEM ARE OFF JUST A BIT ON 
 THE TIMING WITH THE GFS NOW BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE.  YESTERDAY THE 
 EC WAS MORE PROGRESSIVE...SO STILL NOT QUITE SURE ON EXACT TIMING. 
 THE HPC SOLUTION USED A BLEND OF THE TWO...BUT FAVORED MORE TOWARD 
 THE EC.  SO WENT WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE NRN THREE-QUARTERS 
 OF THE FORECAST MOUNTAIN AREAS AND THE NRN HALF OF THE SACRAMENTO 
 VALLEY.  THE SACRAMENTO AREA SHOULD STAY DRY WITH VARIABLE 
 CLOUDINESS.  JMC 
 
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 .AVIATION...
 WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT 
 AT 10 KTS OR LESS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS...TRANSITIONING N TO NWRLY FOR 
 ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST OVERNIGHT THRU EARLY 
 MORNING ALLOWING PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY. MVFR 
 CONDS WITH LOCAL IFR COULD DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL SAC VALLEY INTO 
 THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AFFECTING THE KSMF-KSAC-KMHR-KSCK TAF SITES.  
 KRDD-KRBL VCNTY SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR WITH NO FOG DUE TO NEARBY 
 DOWNSLOPE FLOW. WINDS ALOFT LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY.  JBB
 
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 .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 
 
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