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FXUS65 KFGZ 170419 
  AFDFGZ 
   
  Area Forecast Discussion 
  National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 
  919 PM MST Sat Dec 16 2017 
   
  .SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system moving across far southern 
  Arizona on Sunday and Monday will bring cooler temperatures,  
  along with chances for rain and snow showers primarily along the  
  eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Dry weather and a  
  warming trend are forecast from Monday through Wednesday. By  
  Thursday, another low pressure system may impact the area. 
   
  && 
   
  .UPDATE...The center of a deepening low pressure area is moving 
  across Northern Baja with a rather impressive lightning show this 
  evening. This low will continue to move across the Baja then move 
  slightly northeast and across southern Arizona Sunday and Monday. 
  High clouds will bring mostly cloudy conditions to much of 
  northern Arizona tonight which will moderate the low temps in some 
  of the lower elevations. Have adjusted some temps and cloud cover 
  upwards for tonight.  
   
   
  && 
   
  .PREV DISCUSSION /329 PM MST/... Model solutions continue to shift 
  concerning timing and location of the upper level trough as it 
  transitions inland from the Pacific. Current solutions have the 
  trough deepening into a closed low well over the Baja Penisula. 
  This is further south than previous tracks, and compared to 
  previous model solutions limits the northern spread of moisture 
  over the Mogollon Rim. 
   
  The timing of the system has also slowed down as the low becomes 
  closed off a little later in its track, limiting how much moisture 
  will fall over the Coconino and Yavapai counties, and focusing the 
  moisture plume closer to the Arizona - New Mexico state line. 
   
  As the low tracks further south over Sonora and into Southern 
  Arizona this will also allow temperatures to warm slightly more 
  during the day Sunday. This increasing snow level will also limit 
  some snowfall amounts as a rain snow mix becomes more likely. 
   
  Unfortunately these changes have combined to severely limit 
  snowfall amount across much of the area with Flagstaff and the 
  Western Mogollon Rim now looking at limited snow if any, and much 
  of the Eastern Mogollon Rim struggling to get 1 to 2 inches. The 
  White Mountain will still see the higher amounts from this storm, 
  but the higher elevations are expected to max out around 5 inches 
  of snowfall. 
   
  As the system exits the area on Monday zonal flow looks to become 
  established before the next system impacts the area Thursday. 
  Winds will increase on Wednesday ahead of the next trough, with 
  the details concerning this next event still highly uncertain due 
  to its distance in the long term. Interested parties should stay 
  current with the latest forecasts since this system has the 
  potential to impact travel and other outdoor activities through 
  the rest of next week. 
   
  && 
   
  .AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Expect predominately VFR  
  conditions and light winds over the next 24 hours. A weather system  
  will bring an increasing chance of rain and snow showers to Northern  
  Arizona during the day Sunday, scattered to numerous from KPAN-KSOW  
  southward with areas of MVFR conditions. Elsewhere, only isolated  
  activity. Snow level 5-7 kft MSL. Aviation discussion not updated  
  for TAF amendments. 
   
  && 
   
  .FIRE WEATHER...The cold front moving through Sunday will bring  
  light rain and snow showers to the area, mostly south of the  
  Mogollon Rim and over the White Mountains. Expect less than 0.20 in.  
  precipitation maximum. Temperatures will near normal through Monday  
  with skies clearing Sunday evening.   
   
  Tuesday through Thursday...Mostly sunny and warmer with temperatures  
  5-10 degrees above normal Tuesday and Wednesday, but dropping back  
  to normal Thursday with the next trough passing to the north.  
  Minimum RH values will be in the 20s. Winds will be light through  
  the period except Wednesday with south-southwest winds at 15 gusting  
  25 mph in the afternoon. 
   
   
  && 
   
  .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 
   
  && 
   
  
 
 PUBLIC...MAS/Suk
 AVIATION...McCollum
 FIRE WEATHER...McCollum
 
 
 For Northern Arizona weather information visit
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