AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KABQ 251020
 AFDABQ
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
 320 AM MST WED NOV 25 2009
 
 .DISCUSSION...
 QUIET WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BEFORE AN 
 UNSETTLED PERIOD RETURNS THIS WEEKEND.
 
 TODAY THROUGH THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE
 GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
 EASTERN PLAINS TODAY...BUT THIS WILL GENERALLY BE THE ONLY FEATURE
 OF NOTE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. STRONG
 INVERSIONS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
 CHILLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
 
 ALL EYES THEN TURN TO THE WEEKEND.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT 
 A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE SW CONUS AND 
 CROSS NM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.  HOWEVER...MODELS 
 CONTINUE TO DEVIATE ON THE EXACT PATH IN WHICH THE UPPER LOW WILL 
 TAKE TO GET TO NM.  AS THE LOW CROSSES NM THOUGH...THE TREND APPEARS 
 TO BE FARTHER SOUTH WITH EACH RUN...AS THE GFS/EURO/GEM NOW TAKE THE 
 CENTER OF THE LOW OVER THE BOOTHEEL AND EAST ACROSS THE BORDER. AN 
 ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PLUNGE THROUGH THE EASTERN 
 PLAINS...AND LIKELY THROUGH THE CENTRAL GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN 
 CHAIN BY EARLY SUNDAY.  THIS STRONG COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH 700MB 
 TEMPS FALLING TO -5 TO -8C WITH THE UPPER LOW...WILL RESULT IN MUCH 
 COOLER TEMPS...MAINLY ON SUNDAY.  HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL 
 DEGREES IN ANTICIPATION OF NOT ONLY THESE FACTORS...BUT ALSO THE 
 POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.  GFS REMAINS 
 THE DRIEST OF ALL SOLUTIONS...BUT CANADIAN AND ECMWF AGREE TO SOME 
 EXTENT THAT SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL BE THE 
 FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIP WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT.  NONETHELESS...HOW 
 PROLONGED THIS PERIOD WILL BE IS STILL IN QUESTION...AND AT THIS 
 POINT...NO AREA CAN BE RULED OUT. WITH THE DETAILS STILL UP IN THE 
 AIR...WILL WAIT FOR FURTHER MODEL CONSENSUS BEFORE PINNING DOWN 
 WHERE AND HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL FALL.
 
 34
 
 &&
 
 .AVIATION...
 SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM ROUGHLY KDEN-KMCK AT 09Z WILL
 CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH TO APPROXIMATELY KCQC-KCVN LINE BY 21Z. A
 BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY
 TO RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KT. OTHERWISE VFR AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
 ALOFT BUILDS OVER GREAT BASIN.
 
 NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z.
 
 &&
 
 .FIRE WEATHER...
 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY THROUGH
 THANKSGIVING DAY WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH POOR VENTILATION
 AREAWIDE. A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
 WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS
 TODAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE
 VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THE GUSTINESS WON/T BE
 SUFFICIENT TO IMPROVE VENTILATION OVER THE EAST
 TODAY...CONSIDERING THE SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
 ANTICIPATED IN THE NORTHEAST.
 
 ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW REBOUND...ALTHOUGH 
 INVERSIONS MAY MAKE FOR A QUICKER WARMUP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN 
 BEFORE VALLEY LOCALES START TO CATCH UP THURSDAY. 
 
 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE INCREASING WINDS AND LIKELY IMPROVING 
 VENTILATION AS A SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND WINDS ALOFT BECOME 
 WESTERLY AND STRENGTHEN. SOME CLOUDS MAY BLEED INTO THE GILA REGION 
 BY FRIDAY DUE TO A WEAK UPPER LOW STATIONED OVER BAJA 
 CALIFORNIA...BUT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY 
 NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE 
 HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS 
 A WINTRY STORM SYSTEM SPINS UP OVER THE GREAT BASIN.  WHILE FORECAST 
 MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE...
 CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR DOES LOOK TO SPREAD OVER NEW MEXICO BY
 SUNDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS THIS STORM
 COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND
 CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY NEXT MONDAY.
 
 &&
 
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
 FARMINGTON......................  48  17  55  20 /   0   0   0   0 
 DULCE...........................  50  11  55  13 /   0   0   0   0 
 CUBA............................  49  11  55  13 /   0   0   0   0 
 GALLUP..........................  51   8  57   9 /   0   0   0   0 
 EL MORRO........................  52  12  56  13 /   0   0   0   0 
 GRANTS..........................  53   8  56  10 /   0   0   0   0 
 QUEMADO.........................  54  11  58  12 /   0   0   0   0 
 GLENWOOD........................  65  24  65  25 /   0   0   0   0 
 CHAMA...........................  49  10  54  13 /   0   0   0   0 
 LOS ALAMOS......................  51  25  54  24 /   0   0   0   0 
 PECOS...........................  54  19  57  18 /   0   0   0   0 
 CERRO/QUESTA....................  47  10  54  12 /   0   0   0   0 
 RED RIVER.......................  45   9  49  12 /   0   0   0   0 
 ANGEL FIRE......................  45   9  50  11 /   0   0   0   0 
 TAOS............................  49   9  54   8 /   0   0   0   0 
 ESPANOLA........................  55  15  58  17 /   0   0   0   0 
 SANTA FE........................  51  17  54  19 /   0   0   0   0 
 SANTA FE AIRPORT................  52  20  55  22 /   0   0   0   0 
 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  51  27  55  27 /   0   0   0   0 
 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  52  28  56  29 /   0   0   0   0 
 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  53  21  57  23 /   0   0   0   0 
 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  52  24  56  25 /   0   0   0   0 
 LOS LUNAS.......................  55  18  58  20 /   0   0   0   0 
 RIO RANCHO......................  53  26  56  27 /   0   0   0   0 
 SOCORRO.........................  55  23  60  23 /   0   0   0   0 
 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  50  21  53  21 /   0   0   0   0 
 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  52  15  57  17 /   0   0   0   0 
 CLINES CORNERS..................  50  21  56  25 /   0   0   0   0 
 GRAN QUIVIRA....................  52  23  59  27 /   0   0   0   0 
 CARRIZOZO.......................  55  25  59  27 /   0   0   0   0 
 RUIDOSO.........................  52  24  57  26 /   0   0   0   0 
 CAPULIN.........................  47  15  60  17 /   0   0   0   0 
 RATON...........................  50  14  62  17 /   0   0   0   0 
 LAS VEGAS.......................  53  20  61  24 /   0   0   0   0 
 CLAYTON.........................  51  29  65  32 /   0   0   0   0 
 ROY.............................  51  24  61  26 /   0   0   0   0 
 CONCHAS.........................  57  26  66  27 /   0   0   0   0 
 SANTA ROSA......................  58  24  66  26 /   0   0   0   0 
 TUCUMCARI.......................  57  24  66  28 /   0   0   0   0 
 CLOVIS..........................  57  26  63  30 /   0   0   0   0 
 PORTALES........................  58  25  63  28 /   0   0   0   0 
 FORT SUMNER.....................  58  25  65  27 /   0   0   0   0 
 ROSWELL.........................  60  25  64  28 /   0   0   0   0 
 PICACHO.........................  60  24  65  27 /   0   0   0   0 
 ELK.............................  58  21  60  23 /   0   0   0   0 
 
 &&
 
 .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 NONE.
 
 &&
 
 

 
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