AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KABQ 120908
 AFDABQ
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
 308 AM MDT MON MAY 12 2008
 
 .DISCUSSION...
 BIG CHANGES ON THE WAY...BUT NOT BEFORE ONE MORE DRY...WINDY...AND 
 WARM DAY. 08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 995MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SE 
 CO WITH A LEE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE E PLAINS OF NM.
 A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT ALSO EXTENDS FROM NORTH OF LAS VEGAS NV
 NE THROUGH SALT LAKE AND SOUTHERN WYOMING. WATER VAPOR LOOP CONTINUES
 TO SHOW DRY AIR OVER SOUTHERN CA/AZ SPREADING NE TOWARD NM WHILE A 
 POTENT UPPER WAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST CONUS. 00Z 
 NAM/GFS GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW OVER SE CO WILL SHIFT SE INTO 
 THE TX PANHANDLE AND DEEPEN TO AROUND 989MB. THIS WILL CREATE STRONG
 WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE E PLAINS WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS 
 FARTHER WEST INTO THE WESTERN/NORTHERN MTNS. CURRENT WIND ADV LOOKS 
 SOLID FOR THE E PLAINS HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT THE NW AND WESTERN 
 ZONES...INCLUDING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WILL MEET CRITERIA SINCE 
 21Z SREF MEMBERS SHOWING THE LOW CENTER OVER SE CO MAY DEEPEN FARTHER
 EAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO WINDY
 CONDITIONS ARE STILL LIKELY UNDER EFFICIENT MIXING PROCESS OF VERY
 DRY MID LEVEL AIR. MAX TEMPS IN THE E PLAINS WILL BE 10 TO 15
 DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY.
 
 MODEL SUITE IN BETTER AGREEMENT NOW WITH THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPING 
 OVER THE INTERIOR NW. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG 
 THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NW CORNER/WESTERN MTNS TUESDAY AND 
 PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE A COLD 
 FRONT WILL SLICE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE E PLAINS BRINGING MORE COOL 
 AIR INTO THE AREA. DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND BREEZY TO WINDY 
 CONDITIONS MAY CREATE A FEW MORE HOURS OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER 
 THE SE THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONES 107/108 
 FOR TUESDAY. THE TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER MOVING SE ACROSS NM 
 AND THE COLD FRONT MOVING SW INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL BE 
 CRITICAL TO PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS 
 TUESDAY NIGHT. 00Z NAM/GFS/WRF/ECMWF ALL TELL A SIMILAR STORY THAT 
 DYNAMICS WILL COME TOGETHER FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
 PORTION OF THE CWA BEFORE INSTABILITY WANES AFTER DARK. RAISED POPS 
 TO LIKELY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
 HIGH CHANCE ELSEWHERE FROM TAOS SOUTH TO ABQ THEN SW INTO THE GILA
 TUESDAY EVE. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES SLOW PROGRESSION
 EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY WITH MORE
 SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON.
 
 00Z GFS/GEM STILL SHOW A STRONG WAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT OF COLORADO 
 INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE FIRST SYSTEM THURSDAY. MODERATE QPF EVENT 
 IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY FROM THE CENTRAL MTNS EAST ACROSS THE E PLAINS 
 WITH STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW. LEFT HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THURSDAY 
 NIGHT IN THESE AREAS. SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN ALSO LOOKS TO SUPPORT 
 A MODERATE/STRONG EAST CANYON WIND EVENT FOR KABQ THURSDAY. MAX 
 TEMPS WILL HOVER AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH 
 THE PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE PUSHES ENTIRE SYSTEM SLOWLY EAST THROUGH 
 FRIDAY WHILE NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE STATE. ENSEMBLE
 MEMBERS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH A STRONG RIDGE ATTEMPTING TO
 BUILD INTO THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND.
 
 GUYER
 
 &&
 
 .AVIATION...
 SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 35 TO 45KT OVER NORTHERN AND 
 CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...FAVORING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN 
 CHAIN EASTWARD AS WELL AS INTERSTATE 40 SOUTHWARD. VFR CONDITIONS 
 EXPECTED THROUGH 21Z TODAY...EXCEPT FOR ISOLD/LOCAL 2-5 MILES IN 
 BLDU.  SFC COLD FRONT TO APPROACH KFMN AFTER 00Z...WITH LIGHT PCPN 
 AND POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING.
 
 NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z.
 
 &&
 
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
 FARMINGTON......................  79  48  64  36 /   0  20  40  20 
 GALLUP..........................  78  37  56  30 /   0  20  50  20 
 GRANTS..........................  81  40  61  32 /   0   5  30  40 
 GLENWOOD........................  85  44  70  39 /   0   0  20  30 
 CHAMA...........................  69  32  52  24 /   0  20  50  30 
 LOS ALAMOS......................  74  37  59  32 /   0   0  20  30 
 RED RIVER.......................  66  33  48  25 /   0  10  70  60 
 TAOS............................  74  34  60  30 /   0   5  30  30 
 SANTA FE........................  78  38  62  34 /   0   0  10  40 
 SANTA FE AIRPORT................  80  41  64  36 /   0   0   5  40 
 ESPANOLA........................  82  41  66  36 /   0   0  10  30 
 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  83  49  68  44 /   0   0   5  30 
 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  85  47  70  42 /   0   0   5  30 
 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  80  46  67  41 /   0   0   5  40 
 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  84  49  69  42 /   0   0   5  40 
 SOCORRO.........................  87  51  76  46 /   0   0   5  40 
 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  76  43  60  38 /   0   0  10  40 
 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  79  43  68  42 /   0   0   0  30 
 CARRIZOZO.......................  84  51  74  46 /   0   0   0  20 
 RUIDOSO.........................  76  50  65  36 /   0   0   0  20 
 RATON...........................  81  40  60  33 /   0  10  70  30 
 LAS VEGAS.......................  76  40  60  33 /   0   0  30  40 
 ROY.............................  79  44  59  41 /   0   0  40  20 
 CLAYTON.........................  86  44  62  40 /   0   0  40  20 
 SANTA ROSA......................  88  52  75  45 /   0   0  10  20 
 TUCUMCARI.......................  90  52  76  46 /   0   0  20  20 
 FORT SUMNER.....................  90  50  78  48 /   0   0   0  20 
 CLOVIS..........................  89  51  76  46 /   0   0   0  20 
 PORTALES........................  90  51  78  47 /   0   0   0  20 
 ROSWELL.........................  94  52  84  53 /   0   0   0  20 
 
 &&
 
 .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING 
 FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101>109.
 
 WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR 
 THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ001>021-026.
 
 FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON 
 FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ107-108.
 
 &&
 
 

 
 GUYER/99
 
 
 

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