AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS64 KEPZ 242322
 AFDEPZ
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
 422 PM MST TUE NOV 24 2009
 
 SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL
 MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE
 WORK WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
 YEAR. A STRONG WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A RETURN OF WINTER
 WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...WITH A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP TO OUR AREA. 
 
 &&
 
 
 DISCUSSION...
 CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN FEATURES BROAD LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
 OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
 SOUTHWEST STATES. WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THE HIGH MAY TRY
 TO STRENGTHEN THE LOW OFF BAJA...WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE
 LATE TURKEY DAY AND FRIDAY...AS THE ONLY CHANGES TO OUR WEATHER
 ANTICIPATED AT THIS POINT. EMPHASIS SHIFTS TO WINTER WEATHER EVENT
 THIS WEEKEND. LATEST 12Z GFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS BROADEN HIGH
 PRESSURE RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST...AND THIS CARRIES DOWNSTREAM
 JET ENERGY AND ATTENDANT COLD AIR ADVECTION FURTHER EAST INTO ERN
 NM/CNTRL TX. HOWEVER 12Z ECWMF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HANG THIS
 TROF BACK OVER AZ SUNDAY...WHICH SHIFTS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER
 SNOWFALL FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST OVER GILA AND BOOTHEEL.
 GIVEN OVERALL VARIABILITY IN FORECAST SOLUTIONS...SEE NO REASON
 TO CHANGE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS POINT. IF EC SOLUTION
 PROVES CORRECT...LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO EXTEND POPS THROUGH
 EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RESULT.
 
 DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR
 TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. 
 
 &&
 
 
 
 AVIATION...VALID 25/00Z-26/00Z... VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKC -
 SCT250 THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY W FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL. AIR MASS
 CHANGED AT 11/24/06Z AS A DRY SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVED INTO
 SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO FROM THE NORTH. SFC WINDS 00Z-06Z 060-120 DEG
 08-13KT EXCEPT LUNA/HIDALGO COUNTY 15KT GUST 25 KT. AFT 06Z SFC
 FLOW NE-SE LESS THAN 10KT. OCNL LGT TURBC OVR/NR MTNS AND W FACING
 SLOPES.
 
 &&
 
 
 FIRE WEATHER...
 A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH MOVED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR 
 WEST TEXAS WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND COOLER DAY WITH 
 TEMPERATURES SOME 10 DEGREES F COOLER FROM YESTERDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE 
 AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BRING SEASONABLY WARMER DRY WEATHER TO 
 THE BORDERLAND THROUGH SATURDAY. A MINOR DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH 
 MAY BRING A THREATS OF INCREASED CLOUDINESS TO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF 
 AREA IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. A STRONGER AND MUCH COLDER 
 STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE BORDERLAND LATER SATURDAY 
 THROUGH NEXT MONDAY BRINGING A THREAT OF RAIN/SNOW AND MUCH COLDER 
 TEMPERATURES.
 
 &&
 
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
 EL PASO                 33  63  35  65  38 /   0   0   0   0   0 
 SIERRA BLANCA TX        27  60  30  61  31 /   0   0   0   0   0 
 LAS CRUCES              30  63  32  64  35 /   0   0   0   0   0 
 ALAMOGORDO              28  60  31  62  33 /   0   0   0   0   0 
 CLOUDCROFT              15  48  17  49  21 /   0   0   0   0   0 
 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   27  60  28  62  31 /   0   0   0   0   0 
 SILVER CITY             23  58  26  60  30 /   0   0   0   0   0 
 DEMING                  29  62  31  65  34 /   0   0   0   0   0 
 LORDSBURG               29  63  30  66  33 /   0   0   0   0   0 
 
 &&
 
 .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 NM...NONE.
 TX...NONE.
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 22/20
 
 
 
 

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