AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS64 KEPZ 120959
 AFDEPZ
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
 352 AM MDT MON MAY 12 2008
 
 .SYNOPSIS...
 AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DROP 
 DOWN TO CENTRAL ARIZONA BY TUESDAY NOON AND THEN INTO THE TEXAS 
 PANHANDLE BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO 
 INCREASE INTO THE WINDY CATEGORY BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON 
 TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS 
 AFTERNOON DUE TO THIS. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO 
 TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL 
 DEVELOP ACROSS THE BORDERLAND. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP 
 OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DOWN TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY. 
 THIS WILL GIVE THE BORDERLAND ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS THURSDAY AND 
 THURSDAY NIGHT... WITH THE BEST CHANCES EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE 
 VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND 
 THURSDAY. DRY NORTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR THE COMING WEEKEND AND 
 TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL. 
 
 &&
 
 .DISCUSSION...
 UPPER LOW NOW OVER WESTERN IDAHO AND WILL WORK ITS WAY DOWN TO 
 CENTRAL ARIZONA BY MID DAY TUESDAY. LAST VESTIGES OF THE SUB 
 TROPICAL JET WITH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL HANG ON 
 THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING ASSIMILATED INTO MAIN UPPER 
 FLOW AND SHUNTED EAST OF AREA TONIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE 
 GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON STRONG LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ALONG 
 THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE 
 ACROSS THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON 
 THOUGH PROBABLY ON THE LOW END OF THE CRITERIA. 
 
 GFS/NAM/ECMWF FAIRLY CLOSE IN HANDLING OF UPPER LOW FOR THE 
 TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY PERIOD. PATHS ARE QUITE CLOSE BUT SPEEDS DIFFER A 
 BIT AND WITH SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT RESULTS. FROM CENTRAL ARIZONA 
 MID DAY TUESDAY THE MODELS MOVE LOW INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE 
 WEDNESDAY. NAM IS THE FASTEST...MOVING IT INTO THE PANHANDLE IN THE 
 AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST...MOVING IT INTO THE 
 PANHANDLE IN THE EVENING. WILL GO WITH GFS SPEED AT THIS TIME WHICH 
 SUGGESTS CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE 
 GILA...TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AND THE SAC MOUNTAINS 
 AND WEDNESDAY TO REMAINDER OF AREA. IF NAM PROVES CORRECT...IT MAY 
 BE TOO FAST FOR WEDNESDAY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST OTHER THAN THE 
 SAC MOUNTAINS. WINDS AGAIN WILL BE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY AS 
 LEE SIDE TROUGHING CONTINUES AND PACIFIC SURFACE FRONT NEARS FROM 
 THE WEST. 
 
 MODELS STILL DIFFER ON SECOND UPPER FEATURE THAT RAPIDLY DEVELOPS 
 OVER NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AS STRONG JET NOSES DOWN JUST WEST OF THE 
 ROCKIES...BUT ARE CLOSER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS JET WILL GIVE THE 
 UPPER DYNAMICS FOR ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS THURSDAY...WHILE AT THE 
 SURFACE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WEST ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA 
 THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. PUT SMALL POPS IN ALL ZONES 
 THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BUT BEST SHOT WILL PROBABLY BE THE EAST 
 HALF OF THE CWA. 
 
 THOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...MAIN 
 JET MOVES OFF EAST AND ALLOWS UPPER RIDGE WITH ATTENDANT 
 ANTI-CYCLONIC JET TO BUILD INTO WESTERN U.S. AND BRING DRIER 
 AIR WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM 
 BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD. 
 
 &&
 
 .AVIATION...VALID 12/12Z-13/12Z...
 VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU 18Z. A FEW AREAS OF IFR VISIBILITIES IN 
 BLOWING DUST FM 18Z-00Z. SFC WINDS TO INCREASE AFT 18Z TO 
 23025G35KT. THESE WINDS WILL GENERATE MDT TO GREATER MECHANICAL 
 TURBC OVR NR MTNS ESPLY EAST FACING SLOPES.
 
 &&
 
 .FIRE WEATHER...
 STRONG AND COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
 PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DROP INTO THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY INDUCING
 SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS OVER EASTERN COLO AND EASTERN NMEX. THE
 RESULTING GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO MIX DOWN
 AND CONTINUE THE DOWN SLOPE DRYING FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...THUS RED
 FLAG VERY LIKELY. ALSO TUESDAY WILL BE WATCHED FOR RED FLAG
 POTENTIAL AS WINDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH
 MOVES SOUTH AND EASTWARD LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A
 SHOWER THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL LIKEWISE MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
 ALL THE FIRE WEATHER ZONES.
 
 
 &&
 
 .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
 EL PASO                 90  64  86  57  78 /   0   0   0   0  10 
 SIERRA BLANCA TX        90  61  84  53  69 /   0   0   0   0  10 
 LAS CRUCES              88  62  85  55  77 /   0   0   0   0  10 
 ALAMOGORDO              87  57  84  56  70 /   0   0   0  10  10 
 CLOUDCROFT              69  40  62  35  54 /   0   0   0  20  20 
 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   88  59  84  53  76 /   0   0   0  20  10 
 SILVER CITY             80  47  73  44  69 /   0   0  10  20  10 
 DEMING                  89  59  85  54  77 /   0   0   0  10  10 
 LORDSBURG               89  58  85  53  79 /   0   0   0  10  10 
 
 &&
 
 .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS 
      EVENING FOR NMZ110>113.
 
      WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR 
      NMZ022>025-030>032.
 
 TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS 
      EVENING FOR TXZ055-056.
 
      WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR 
      TXZ055-056.
 
 &&
 
 

 
 17 HEFNER
 
 
 
 
 
 

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