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National Weather Service Tucson Arizona
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FXUS65 KFGZ 171018 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 315 AM MST SAT MAY 17 2008 .SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A STRONG WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND...AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE WARMEST WEEKEND SO FAR THIS YEAR. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT ANOTHER COLD...LATE-SEASON WEATHER SYSTEM TO BRING INCREASING WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. && DISCUSSION...ONE MORE DAY OF EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES REACHING THE FULL POTENTIAL TODAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP SEVERAL DEGREES FROM FRIDAY. SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE WILL BRING MORE CLOUD COVER TO THE EAST-CENTRAL ZONES WITH A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE STRONG RIDGE LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN NEAR RECORD HEAT FOR THE THREE DAY PERIOD. SKY COVER WILL BE MINIMAL...WITH SLOWLY INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...ALL MODELS FORECASTING A MAJOR TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ABRUPTLY END THE RECORD HEAT...WITH RAIN AND SNOW...STRONG WINDS...AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE AREA. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IS THIS SOLUTION...BUT WE HAVE BEGUN TO GET MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LONG-TERM FORECAST. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS (CALM TO 10 KTS) CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...SEE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST (FWFFGZ) FOR DISCUSSION OF DAYS 1 AND 2. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH AFTERNOON HAINES INDICES AT 5 OR 6. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 5-15 PERCENT EACH DAY. LOOK FOR BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS MONDAY AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. &&
PUBLIC...PETERSON AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...TC VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR MORE NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.
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