AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KFGZ 171018
 AFDFGZ
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
 315 AM MST SAT MAY 17 2008
 
 .SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A STRONG WARMING 
 TREND OVER THE WEEKEND...AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE 
 WARMEST WEEKEND SO FAR THIS YEAR. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
 THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT ANOTHER COLD...LATE-SEASON WEATHER 
 SYSTEM TO BRING INCREASING WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND A 
 CHANCE OF RAIN AND HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF 
 NEXT WEEK.
 
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 DISCUSSION...ONE MORE DAY OF EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 
 REACHING THE FULL POTENTIAL TODAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP 
 SEVERAL DEGREES FROM FRIDAY. SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING AROUND THE 
 RIDGE WILL BRING MORE CLOUD COVER TO THE EAST-CENTRAL ZONES WITH A 
 VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE.
 
 FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE STRONG RIDGE LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE 
 WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN NEAR RECORD HEAT FOR THE 
 THREE DAY PERIOD. SKY COVER WILL BE MINIMAL...WITH SLOWLY INCREASING 
 SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
 
 FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...ALL MODELS FORECASTING A 
 MAJOR TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS 
 WILL ABRUPTLY END THE RECORD HEAT...WITH RAIN AND SNOW...STRONG 
 WINDS...AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE AREA. STILL 
 SOME UNCERTAINTY IS THIS SOLUTION...BUT WE HAVE BEGUN TO GET MORE 
 AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LONG-TERM FORECAST.
 
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 .AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR 
 THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS (CALM TO 10 KTS) 
 CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. 
 AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
 
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 .FIRE WEATHER...SEE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST (FWFFGZ) FOR DISCUSSION OF 
 DAYS 1 AND 2.
 
 MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR 
 THIS PERIOD WITH AFTERNOON HAINES INDICES AT 5 OR 6. MINIMUM 
 RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 5-15 PERCENT EACH DAY. LOOK FOR 
 BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS MONDAY AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS 
 POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
 
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 .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
 
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 PUBLIC...PETERSON
 AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...TC
 
 VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR MORE NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER 
 INFORMATION.
 
 

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