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National Weather Service Tucson Arizona
HOME > Back to products page | Weather Glossary

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KPSR 171013
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
310 AM MST SAT MAY 17 2008

SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
FORECAST DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE SEASON THUS FAR...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY
DAYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP OVER UTAH BY THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BRING BREEZY AND
COOLER WEATHER...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR PARTS
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE TODAY AS A STRONG ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY NEAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SEVERAL BANDS OF MAINLY
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WERE STREAKING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...BUT THEY SHOULD THIN OUT WITH TIME. THE MODELS REMAIN IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING THE WESTERN RIDGE SLOWLY TOWARD
THE EAST...WITH THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE DESERTS
BY MONDAY. THIS TREND WAS ALREADY EVIDENT YESTERDAY...AND THE MAIN
IMPACT FOR ALL ZONES REMAINS NEAR RECORD...OR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR PHOENIX...THE FIRST 100
DEGREE DAY OF THE SEASON LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY EVEN HOTTER.
MUCH HIGHER MAX TEMPS STILL APPEAR TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN OUT WEST
INCLUDING SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND PARTICULARLY FAR SOUTHEAST CALIF.
IMPERIAL/EL CENTRO AS WELL AS YUMA AND BLYTHE COULD TOP OUT AT 110
DEGREES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THICKNESSES DONT CHANGE MUCH ON TUES.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH WAS ISSUED TO COVER THESE HEALTH CONCERNS.

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE
MID-WEEK TIME FRAME...AND THEY DEPICT AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
COLD-CORE LOW OVER UTAH. THUS WE OPTED TO INTRODUCE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...ON
FRIDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR GLOBE.
THERE WILL BE A LOT OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD-CORE
SYSTEM...AND GFS TRENDS THE JETSTREAM WINDS TO EXCEED 100 KTS FROM
ABOUT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO LATE THURSDAY. STRONG OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS
MAY COME INTO PLAY...AND LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO DEFINE THIS
BETTER. EARLY FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE PRIME TIME FOR GETTING SOME
ACTIVITY AND FOR NOW I WILL FOCUS ON THE AREA NORTHEAST OF PHOENIX.
MODELS KEEP SOME LINGERING MOISTURE WELL NORTH OF US BY LATE FRIDAY
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL WEATHER ACROSS
ALL ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FIRMLY BE OVER THE REGION BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AT NEAR-RECORD LEVELS. RH LEVELS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHILE BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOP. THE VERY WARM/DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY...A BROAD-SCALE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. THIS WILL QUICKLY BRING TEMPS DOWN
AND RH LEVELS UP...AS WELL AS INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. AT
THIS TIME THE PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS NEAR ZERO...
THOUGH THIS COULD CHANGE AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK AND MODELS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.CLIMATE...

CLIMATE INFORMATION FOR SELECT STATIONS ACROSS THE NWS PHOENIX CWA.

NORMAL HIGH RECORD HIGH FORECAST HIGH
STATION 5/18 5/19 5/20 5/18 5/19 5/20 5/18 5/19 5/20
PHOENIX 94 95 95 107 105 106 103 106 106
YUMA 94 94 95 109 109 110 110 112 110
CASA GRANDE 96 96 97 109 109 107 102 105 105
GLOBE 84 84 85 96 97 100 92 96 96
EL CENTRO 94 95 95 110 108 111 107 110 108
BLYTHE 94 95 95 110 108 110 108 110 108

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR AZZ020-021-025-026.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR AZZ020-021-025-026.

CA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR CAZ031-032.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR CAZ031-032.

&&




NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT
WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...SIPPLE
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...INIGUEZ





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