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National Weather Service Tucson Arizona
HOME > Back to products page | Weather Glossary

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KPSR 240211
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
715 PM MST MON NOV 23 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH WARMER WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER BY THANKSGIVING DAY...IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA AND
EL CENTRO. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ARIZONA AND BRING MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO OUR AREA BY
SUNDAY. IT WILL ALSO BE WINDY THIS WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY...I.E. SOME HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES WITH LITTLE DAY TO DAY
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE.

HOWEVER...A BIG CHANGE TO COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN
AZ THIS WEEKEND AS EXPLAINED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

OTHERWISE CURRENT DRY FORECASTS THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY LOOK OK. NO
UPDATES NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND SUNNY DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BETWEEN HAWAII AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL BUILD NORTHEAST OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER BY THANKSGIVING DAY.
HIGHS IN THE DESERT AREAS INCLUDING PHOENIX...YUMA AND EL CENTRO ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES BY THANKSGIVING
DAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE FRIDAY.

A STRONG NORTH PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER WEATHER FOR THE
AREA BY SUNDAY. IT WILL ALSO BE WINDY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DEVELOP DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...ESPECIALLY
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY FOR OUR AREA...WITH
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN AZ...INCLUDING
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR MOUNTAINOUS ZONE 24...SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST CA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...INCLUDING KIPL...
KBLH...KPHX...AND KIWA.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND ARE EXPECTED AT THE ABOVE TAF
SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z WED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY NEAR KBLH WHERE AFTERNOON NORTH WINDS OF 12 TO 22 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 20Z TUE AND 01Z WED.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY AND
THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR OR CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED EACH
DAY...AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER...ALONG WITH VERY DRY AIR. MANY
DESERT LOCATIONS WILL HAVE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WELL BELOW 15
PERCENT OR IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH MODEST RECOVERY AT NIGHT.

A NORTH PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT COOLING
BY THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASING WIND. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY FALL
AROUND 15 DEGREES BY SUNDAY COMPARED WITH THE PEAK HIGH TEMPERATURES
THANKSGIVING DAY. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S IN
MOST LOWER ELEVATION DESERT LOCATIONS. THIS WILL BE A RATHER DRY
SYSTEM FOR OUR AREA...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE HIGHER MOSTLY
BECAUSE OF THE COOLING.

IT WILL BE WINDY THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG IN PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED DOWN THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&




NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX IS ON THE INTERNET AT

WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ/ELLIS
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...ELLIS







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