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National Weather Service Tucson Arizona
HOME > Back to products page | Printer Friendly | Zone descriptions
Weather Glossary | Discussion with Glossary new product

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KTWC 092110
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
210 PM MST FRI MAY 9 2008

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
ENHANCING A WEAK DISTURBANCE OFF OF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW THAT WAS OFF BAJA COAST LAST NIGHT CONTINUES
TO SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA
TONIGHT. BULK OF SUBTROPICAL MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA. HAVE SEEN SOME VIRGA OUT OF THE MID-LEVEL DECK
BUT NOTHING REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE. CLOUD
COVER TODAY AS LIMITED GOOD MIXING...THUS RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS
BEING A BIT LESS THAN EARLIER FORECAST...WHICH IN TURN MAKES HITTING
RED FLAG CRITERIA A BIT MORE DIFFICULT. CHECK FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. CLOUD COVER DECREASING LATER TONIGHT
AS SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN THIS MORNING.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND PROVIDING WARMER
TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME READINGS 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE NEXT PACIFIC TROF TO AFFECT OUR AREA WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AS TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OF
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY. LESS WIND AND A BIT WARMER
WEDNESDAY...THEN MUCH WARMER LATE NEXT WEEK.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
HAS RESULTED IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. THEREFORE...
THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 148 (SANTA
CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTIES) REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. LESS WIND CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN TO
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
TONIGHT. CLOUD BASES WILL GENERALLY BE AT 12-15K FT. OTHERWISE...
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 148...WHICH INCLUDES SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE
COUNTIES.




WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON




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