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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KTWC 130922
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
222 AM MST MON FEB 13 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE IMPACT THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. AS THE FIRST ONE CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ONE ON
TUESDAY AND YET ANOTHER ON THURSDAY. THESE SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
ACCOMPANY EACH PASSING SYSTEM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ON THE EVE OF THE 100TH BIRTHDAY OF ARIZONA
STATEHOOD...THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT POCKETS OF VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...HAS MOVED ON EAST WITH DRIER WNW FLOW OVER THE
AREA THIS MORNING. WILL BE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY WITH
HIGHS SIMILAR OR A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY.

THE WAVE TRAIN OF PACIFIC STORMS HAS STORM NUMBER TWO OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN
ARIZONA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH MOISTURE INCREASING OUT AHEAD OF
IT OVER ARIZONA. THIS SYSTEM HAS MORE DYNAMICS AND IS MUCH COLDER
THAN THE ONE ON SUNDAY SO EXPECT LOWER SNOW LEVELS...AND 1-4 INCHES
OF SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OCCURRING UP IN THE
WHITES. WITH PRETTY COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES PUSHING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM NORTH OF TUCSON. THUS HAVE ADDED MENTION OF THIS TO THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS ZONE. FOR THE VALLEY...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE FROM
TUCSON WEST AND NORTH. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER MOST OF THE AREA
WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. I DID
LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS FROM WHAT I INHERITED BUT MAY NOT GONE COOL
ENOUGH...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT WILL SEE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST
OF THE DAY. I COULD EASILY SEE TUCSON HITTING ONLY 55 INSTEAD OF THE
58 I`M GOING WITH. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY...WITH
STRONGEST GUSTS ACROSS EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY. HAVE ADDED LOCAL
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST TO THIS AREA.

LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF TUCSON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COLDER IN WAKE
OF THIS SYSTEM.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF BEING IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS
WITH SYSTEM NUMBER 3 SLATED TO IMPACT THE AREA ON THURSDAY. MODELS
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE HAD THEIR DIFFICULTY IN HANDLING
SYSTEM NUMBER 3. LATEST 00Z OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE RUNS HAVE
CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION OF DROPPING THIS LOW INLAND OVER
CALIFORNIA...BOTTOMING OUT NEAR SAN DIEGO/NRN BAJA AND MOVING EAST
OVER NORTHERN SONORA. WITH THIS SOLUTION...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SO
THAT THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST
AREA.

THE WAVE TRAIN WILL THEN TAKE A BREAK FRIDAY INTO MOST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY. WILL SEE A
WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY CLEARING FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING AND NOT AS
BREEZY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN
INCREASE FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM. FEW 060-080
AGL EAST OF TUCSON UNTIL 13/20Z...OTHERWISE SCT 200-250 UNTIL
14/01Z. THEN INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUD SCT-BKN 150 UNTIL 14/08Z.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS THIS
MORNING...THEN SOUTHWEST TO WEST 10 TO 20 KTS UNTIL 14/03Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING TONIGHT AND INCREASING TUESDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK
WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING MORE GUSTY WINDS...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIPITATION.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.




WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON





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