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National Weather Service Tucson Arizona
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Weather Glossary | Discussion with Glossary

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KTWC 071551
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
850 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY THIN AS THE
SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION TODAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE OVER SONORA CONTINUES TO WRAP MID/HIGH
CLOUDS INTO SRN AZ...WITH THE LOWER THICK DECK COMING IN AROUND 600
MB. 12Z NAM SHOWS THESE CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE
CWFA THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS SEEM TO HAVE THIS
ACCOUNTED FOR SO DO NOT BELIEVE ADJUSTMENTS ARE NECESSARY...KD

&&

.AVIATION...BKN-OVC CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 15K FT AGL THROUGH 23Z...
THEN FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 15K FT AGL 23Z-05Z SUNDAY...WITH
MAINLY CLR SKIES BETWEEN 05Z-15Z SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE
WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK
UPPER LOW PASSING SOUTH OF THE STATE. LATEST MODELS TRACK THIS LOW
FARTHER SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH SKIES CLEARING IN ITS WAKE
BY THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER...MODELS SHOWED SOME WEAK RIDGING OVER
THE REGION FOR DRY CONDITIONS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BY NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE COULD LEAD TO MORE SEASONABLE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.




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