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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KTWC 280337
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
837 PM MST MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A QUICK WARMING TREND...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AGAIN TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS SE
ARIZONA...LINGERING ON THE BACKSIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN TEXAS. ADDITIONAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A MUCH WARMER DAY TODAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
7 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE SUNDAY`S HIGH...STILL AROUND 4 TO 7 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL INCREASE ANOTHER 2 TO 4 DEGREES...BRINGING
TEMPERATURES TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL. TONIGHT...WINDS
TRANSITIONING TO EASTERLY...BECOMING BREEZY AT TIMES. TONIGHT`S LOW
WILL BE A BIT WARMER...AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST
PLACES. BREEZY TO GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON TOMORROW BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. AREAS THAT ARE MORE
PRONE TO EAST WINDS WILL SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT LEADING TO STRONGER
WINDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS ON TRACK...NO GRID CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/06Z. FEW-SCT CLOUDS 09-12 KFT AGL...WITH
ADDITIONAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. ELY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 12-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOCAL AREAS AROUND
20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS ESP VICINITY KTUS AND KDUG THRU 28/20Z
THEN WIND EASING TO 7-12 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TUESDAY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
25-30 MPH. LOCAL AREAS PRONE TO AN EASTERLY WIND WILL LIKELY SEE
WIND SPEEDS 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. AFTER EASING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING
BUT SHOULD BE A BIT WEAKER THAN TUESDAY MORNING THEN EASE UP AGAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB EACH DAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAKING ABOUT
10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DEW POINTS
STEADILY DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND WITH A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AGAIN LATE NEXT
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...BY EARLY WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED TO A
POSITION OVER THE DIXIE STATES...WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO
TO THE SOUTH OF ARIZONA. MEANWHILE...BEHIND THIS TROUGH A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SITUATED OVER SRN CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS. THE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD
THURSDAY AND JUST EAST OF ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

FOR THIS WEEKEND EXPECT NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. RIGHT NOW THESE
SYSTEMS LOOK TOO WEAK TO RESULT IN ANY `REAL` THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION...SO ONLY USED SINGLE DIGIT POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR THE
TIME BEING...WHICH ARE TOO SMALL TO RESULT IN A MENTION IN THE TEXT
PRODUCTS. HOWEVER...BY NEXT MONDAY MODELS ADVERTISE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD BRING SOME THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. FOR NOW I JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR MOSTLY MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS FROM TUCSON TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

FOR TUCSON HIGHS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL
THEREAFTER. THE WARMEST DAYS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN
HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 7 TO 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. OTHERWISE...HIGHS
DURING THAT PERIOD AROUND 2 TO 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. LOW TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL...BUT
THE WARMEST MORNINGS SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NORMAL HIGHS
THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR TUCSON ARE AROUND 86 TO 88 DEGS...WHILE NORMAL
LOWS AROUND AROUND 55 TO 57 DEGS.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&





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