AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KTWC 232130
 AFDTWC
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
 230 PM MST MON NOV 23 2009
 
 .SYNOPSIS...WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA 
 AND BRING OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL 
 REMAIN DRY WITH WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO 
 THANKSGIVING DAY. THEN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE 
 ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY 
 WEEKEND.
 
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 .DISCUSSION...CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY UNDER BRIGHT SUNSHINE WITH 
 AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A SMIDGE COOLER THAN SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW 
 TEMPERATURES UNDER A CLEAR SKY WILL BE SIMILAR IF NOT A BIT COOLER 
 THAN WHAT OCCURRED THIS MORNING.
 
 TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE 
 INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THUS PROVIDING A WARMING TREND INTO THANKSGIVING 
 DAY WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WILL OCCUR. DURING 
 THIS TIME FRAME...A BIT OF ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA ON 
 TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH OVER WESTERN ARIZONA BEFORE BECOMING A WEAK 
 CUT-OFF LOW OVER NORTHERN BAJA ON TURKEY DAY. THIS FEATURE MAY PICK 
 UP SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE RESIDING OVER SONORA ON 
 THURSDAY AND SPREAD IT NORTH OVER MAINLY COCHISE COUNTY. SO COULD 
 SEE SOME FLAT CU FIELDS SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON THURSDAY.
 
 COOLING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON FRIDAY AND BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT 
 OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON 
 THE IDEA OF A COLD/MOSTLY DRY SYSTEM TO DROP INTO THE DESERT 
 SOUTHWEST FROM WESTERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE AN INLAND TRACK 
 SO MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED. HAVE KEPT MINIMAL POPS GOING BUT 
 HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE  
 SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE PRETTY CHILLY ALSO.
 STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO HAMMER OUT THE DETAILS.
 
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 .AVIATION...SKC-FEW CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. 
 NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES...WITH 
 SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT 
 UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
 
 &&
 
 .FIRE WEATHER...A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES 
 WILL RESULT IN A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA 
 TUESDAY MORNING...THEN READINGS WILL SLOWLY WARM A FEW DEGREES 
 THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
 FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. A STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO 
 THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN COOLER 
 TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WINDS. 
 
 &&
 
 .CLIMATE...LOOKS LIKE THANKSGIVING 2009 WILL BE DRY AND WARM ACROSS 
 SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE PREVIOUS TWO THANKSGIVINGS HAVE BEEN WET. IN 
 2008 WIDESPREAD RAIN FELL ACROSS THE AREA WHILE IN 2007 THERE WERE 
 SCATTERED SHOWERS.
 
 &&
 
 .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
 
 

 
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