National Weather Service Tucson Arizona
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FXUS65 KTWC 100912 AFDTWC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 215 AM MST WED FEB 10 2010 .SYNOPSIS...A STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATER TODAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE COLD WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ABOVE 4000 FEET OR EVEN LOWER. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. && .DISCUSSION...STRONG LOW WINDING UP WITH ONE MORE PIECE OF REINFORCING ENERGY NOW NEAR SAN DIEGO. STILL WOBBLING SOUTHEAST AS IT SLOWS SLIGHTLY BEFORE A TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NORTHERN SONORA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. STARTING TO TAP INTO SOME NICE MOISTURE NOW AS WELL. BANDS OF CONVECTION WITH BUSY CG LIGHTNING PROFILES EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. A GOOD SOLID COLD SYSTEM WITH A STRONG FAVORABLY ORIENTED JET...PLENTY OF ENERGY AND A NICE MOISTURE SUPPLY...WE ARE COMFORTABLE WITH OUR 70 TO 100 POPS AND AND CONVERSION OF WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. SAME TIMING AND ELEVATIONS WITH BEST SHOWERS MOVING IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SNOW LEVELS FALL TOWARD 4K FEET. EVENING HOURS MAY SEE SNOW LEVELS AS LOW AS 3500 FEET OR EVEN LOWER IN THE VICINITY OF CONVECTION...BUT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS AT OR ABOVE 4000 FEET. SOME WRAP-AROUND ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE FAIRLY RAPID CLEARING FROM THE WEST. WITH RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND COLD AIR...FROST AND/OR FOG MAY BE A LOCALIZED CONCERN FOR A MORNING OR TWO. SOUTHERN BRANCH RECONSOLIDATION AS THE PATTERN CHANGE BRINGS A RIDGE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...THRU 16Z CLOUD DECKS LOWERING TO 6-9K FT AGL. AFTER 16Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT CLOUD DECKS GENERALLY 5-8K FT AGL...ALONG WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO VALLEY SHRA AND HIGHER TERRAIN SHSN ESPECIALLY KTUS VICINITY EWD/SWD. SURFACE WINDS THRU 16Z SELY/SLY GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS....THEN SWLY-WLY 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ABOVE 4000 FEET AZZ019-029-030-032>035.
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
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