AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KTWC 071551
 AFDTWC
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
 850 AM MST SAT NOV 7 2009
 
 .SYNOPSIS...CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW 
 PRESSURE TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY THIN AS THE 
 SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION TODAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE 
 NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE 
 UPCOMING WEEK.
 
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 .DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE OVER SONORA CONTINUES TO WRAP MID/HIGH 
 CLOUDS INTO SRN AZ...WITH THE LOWER THICK DECK COMING IN AROUND 600 
 MB. 12Z NAM SHOWS THESE CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE 
 CWFA THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS SEEM TO HAVE THIS 
 ACCOUNTED FOR SO DO NOT BELIEVE ADJUSTMENTS ARE NECESSARY...KD
 
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 .AVIATION...BKN-OVC CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 15K FT AGL THROUGH 23Z... 
 THEN FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 15K FT AGL 23Z-05Z SUNDAY...WITH 
 MAINLY CLR SKIES BETWEEN 05Z-15Z SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 
 LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT 
 UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
 
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 .FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN SURFACE 
 WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 
 MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
 
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 .PREV DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING CONSIDERABLE 
 CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK 
 UPPER LOW PASSING SOUTH OF THE STATE. LATEST MODELS TRACK THIS LOW 
 FARTHER SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH SKIES CLEARING IN ITS WAKE 
 BY THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER...MODELS SHOWED SOME WEAK RIDGING OVER 
 THE REGION FOR DRY CONDITIONS...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH 
 TEMPERATURES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH A 
 TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BY NEXT 
 WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE COULD LEAD TO MORE SEASONABLE HIGH 
 TEMPERATURES AROUND FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.   
 
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 .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
 
 

 
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