AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KTWC 130922
 AFDTWC
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
 222 AM MST MON FEB 13 2012
 
 .SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE IMPACT THE 
 REGION OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. AS THE FIRST ONE CONTINUES TO MOVE 
 EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ONE ON 
 TUESDAY AND YET ANOTHER ON THURSDAY. THESE SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS WILL 
 BRING A CHANCE OF VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO PARTS OF 
 SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL 
 ACCOMPANY EACH PASSING SYSTEM. 
 
 &&
 
 .DISCUSSION...ON THE EVE OF THE 100TH BIRTHDAY OF ARIZONA 
 STATEHOOD...THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT POCKETS OF VERY LIGHT 
 SHOWERS ON SUNDAY...HAS MOVED ON EAST WITH DRIER WNW FLOW OVER THE 
 AREA THIS MORNING. WILL BE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY WITH 
 HIGHS SIMILAR OR A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY. 
 
 THE WAVE TRAIN OF PACIFIC STORMS HAS STORM NUMBER TWO OVER NORTHERN 
 CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN 
 ARIZONA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH MOISTURE INCREASING OUT AHEAD OF 
 IT OVER ARIZONA. THIS SYSTEM HAS MORE DYNAMICS AND IS MUCH COLDER 
 THAN THE ONE ON SUNDAY SO EXPECT LOWER SNOW LEVELS...AND 1-4 INCHES 
 OF SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OCCURRING UP IN THE 
 WHITES. WITH PRETTY COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES PUSHING THROUGH 
 TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED 
 THUNDERSTORM NORTH OF TUCSON. THUS HAVE ADDED MENTION OF THIS TO THE 
 WHITE MOUNTAINS ZONE. FOR THE VALLEY...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE FROM 
 TUCSON WEST AND NORTH. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER MOST OF THE AREA 
 WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY WHERE THE 
 PRECIPITATION WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. I DID 
 LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS FROM WHAT I INHERITED BUT MAY NOT GONE COOL 
 ENOUGH...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT WILL SEE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST 
 OF THE DAY. I COULD EASILY SEE TUCSON HITTING ONLY 55 INSTEAD OF THE 
 58 I`M GOING WITH. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY...WITH 
 STRONGEST GUSTS ACROSS EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY. HAVE ADDED LOCAL 
 AREAS OF BLOWING DUST TO THIS AREA. 
 
 LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY 
 NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF TUCSON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COLDER IN WAKE 
 OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
 WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF BEING IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS 
 WITH SYSTEM NUMBER 3 SLATED TO IMPACT THE AREA ON THURSDAY. MODELS 
 OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE HAD THEIR DIFFICULTY IN HANDLING 
 SYSTEM NUMBER 3. LATEST 00Z OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE RUNS HAVE 
 CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION OF DROPPING THIS LOW INLAND OVER 
 CALIFORNIA...BOTTOMING OUT NEAR SAN DIEGO/NRN BAJA AND MOVING EAST 
 OVER NORTHERN SONORA. WITH THIS SOLUTION...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SO 
 THAT THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST 
 AREA. 
 
 THE WAVE TRAIN WILL THEN TAKE A BREAK FRIDAY INTO MOST OF THE 
 WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY. WILL SEE A 
 WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
 
 &&
 
 .AVIATION...GENERALLY CLEARING FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING AND NOT AS 
 BREEZY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN 
 INCREASE FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM. FEW 060-080 
 AGL EAST OF TUCSON UNTIL 13/20Z...OTHERWISE SCT 200-250 UNTIL 
 14/01Z. THEN INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUD SCT-BKN 150 UNTIL 14/08Z. 
 WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS THIS 
 MORNING...THEN SOUTHWEST TO WEST 10 TO 20 KTS UNTIL 14/03Z BEFORE 
 DIMINISHING TONIGHT AND INCREASING TUESDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT 
 UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
 
 &&
 
 .FIRE WEATHER...THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK 
 WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL 
 BRING MORE GUSTY WINDS...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER 
 TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY 
 WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIPITATION. 
 
 &&
 
 .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
 
 

 
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