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Weather Glossary | Discussion with Glossary new product

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KTWC 040910
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
210 AM MST SAT JUL 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AS A TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO THE
WEST COAST...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA NEXT WEEK FOR A
DECREASE IN MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. PLENTY
OF DRY MID LEVEL AIR COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
EXTENDING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS DEMARCATION BETWEEN DRY
AND MOIST MID LEVEL AIR CURRENTLY DIVIDES THE STATE IN HALF. THIS IS
ALSO WHERE STORMS DEVELOPED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. RAINFALL WAS WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN PIMA
COUNTY INCLUDING THE TUCSON METRO AREA WITH 6 HOUR TOTALS WELL ABOVE
A HALF INCH IN MOST PLACES AND NUMEROUS LOCATIONS RECEIVING MORE
THAN 1 INCH. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATES THAT THE ACTIVITY IS
WINDING DOWN WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER EASTERN PIMA COUNTY
AND INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SANTA CRUZ COUNTY.

TODAYS FORECAST WILL BE A TRICKY ONE. WITH THE EXTENSIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNINGS RAIN IT SHOULD TAKE A WHILE FOR THE CLOUDS
TO THIN OUT. IF THAT IS THE CASE...THEN HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
MAKE IT INTO THE 90S...AND RAIN SHOULD BE SPOTTY IN NATURE WITH NOT
VERY MANY STRONG STORMS. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE
TO ERODE...AND WE DO GET SIGNIFICANT SUNSHINE...THEN EXPECT HIGHS TO
REACH THE MID 90S OR SO AND EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY
STRONG STORMS WITH PLENTY OF RAINFALL. FOR NOW I OPTED THE SECOND
CHOICE...WITH SOME INSOLATION AND ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS. THIS IS
BASED MAINLY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS CLOUD TOPS WARMING
QUICKLY AND THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY JUST WEST OF
TUCSON. DAY SHIFT CAN ALWAYS ADJUST TODAYS FORECAST IF IT LOOKS LIKE
THE CLOUDS WILL LINGER LONGER THAN EXPECTED.

MODELS INDICATE THAT WE SHOULD STILL BE "IN THE SOUP" FOR ANOTHER
DAY OR TWO WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND AN INCH AND HALF OR MORE. BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THE HIGH TO OUR EAST IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST OR
RECONSOLIDATE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...GIVING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WEST OR NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OVER
ARIZONA BY MIDWEEK AND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DRY US OUT
CONSIDERABLY. GFS IS ALSO SUGGESTING THAT HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE
100 TO 105 RANGE FROM AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A REDUCTION OF THE MOISTURE TAP THAT
WE HAVE HAD FOR A WHILE. STILL LOOKING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FROM TUCSON EASTWARD. AS THE MODELS
GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION WE WILL BE ABLE TO FINE TUNE
THE FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS PERSIST THIS MORNING WITH LOWER
THAN NORMAL CLOUD CEILINGS. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES SHOULD SEE RAIN
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF WITH CEILINGS SLOWLY CLIMBING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
TODAY WITH CEILINGS LOWER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A MOIST ATMOSPHERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH
MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST COAST WILL SHIFT A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW INTO
ARIZONA NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE
TO MINIMIZE ANY FIRE WEATHER RISKS AND CONCERNS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.




MOLLERE

WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON








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