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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KTWC 092110
 AFDTWC
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
 210 PM MST FRI MAY 9 2008
 
 .SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT 
 WEEKEND. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY 
 ENHANCING A WEAK DISTURBANCE OFF OF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST. THIS 
 WILL RESULT IN A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 
 AND AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER.
 
 &&
 
 .DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW THAT WAS OFF BAJA COAST LAST NIGHT CONTINUES 
 TO SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA 
 TONIGHT. BULK OF SUBTROPICAL MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS EAST AND 
 SOUTH OF THE AREA. HAVE SEEN SOME VIRGA OUT OF THE MID-LEVEL DECK 
 BUT NOTHING REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE. CLOUD 
 COVER TODAY AS LIMITED GOOD MIXING...THUS RESULTING IN WIND SPEEDS 
 BEING A BIT LESS THAN EARLIER FORECAST...WHICH IN TURN MAKES HITTING 
 RED FLAG CRITERIA A BIT MORE DIFFICULT. CHECK FIRE WEATHER SECTION 
 BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. CLOUD COVER DECREASING LATER TONIGHT 
 AS SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT 
 LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN THIS MORNING.
 
 UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND PROVIDING WARMER 
 TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME READINGS 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
 
 THE NEXT PACIFIC TROF TO AFFECT OUR AREA WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY 
 WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY 
 ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS 
 AS TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OF 
 SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY. LESS WIND AND A BIT WARMER 
 WEDNESDAY...THEN MUCH WARMER LATE NEXT WEEK.
 
 
 &&
 
 .FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN 
 HAS RESULTED IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 
 WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING 
 HOURS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. THEREFORE...  
 THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 148 (SANTA 
 CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTIES) REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS 
 EVENING. OTHERWISE...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 
 NEXT WEEK. LESS WIND CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN TO 
 BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS 
 ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. 
 
 &&
 
 .AVIATION...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST 
 ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TODAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED 
 WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE 
 EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS 
 TONIGHT. CLOUD BASES WILL GENERALLY BE AT 12-15K FT. OTHERWISE... 
 SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 
 NEAR 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS... 
 ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME 
 DIURNALLY DRIVEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. AVIATION 
 DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
 
 &&
 
 .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
      EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF 
      FIRE WEATHER ZONE 148...WHICH INCLUDES SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE 
      COUNTIES. 
 
 

 
 WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
 
 
 

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520 North Park Ave, Suite 304
Tucson, AZ 85719

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