National Weather Service Tucson Arizona
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FXUS65 KTWC 232130 AFDTWC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 230 PM MST MON NOV 23 2009 .SYNOPSIS...WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA AND BRING OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. THEN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY UNDER BRIGHT SUNSHINE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A SMIDGE COOLER THAN SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES UNDER A CLEAR SKY WILL BE SIMILAR IF NOT A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT OCCURRED THIS MORNING. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THUS PROVIDING A WARMING TREND INTO THANKSGIVING DAY WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WILL OCCUR. DURING THIS TIME FRAME...A BIT OF ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA ON TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH OVER WESTERN ARIZONA BEFORE BECOMING A WEAK CUT-OFF LOW OVER NORTHERN BAJA ON TURKEY DAY. THIS FEATURE MAY PICK UP SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL BE RESIDING OVER SONORA ON THURSDAY AND SPREAD IT NORTH OVER MAINLY COCHISE COUNTY. SO COULD SEE SOME FLAT CU FIELDS SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON THURSDAY. COOLING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON FRIDAY AND BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON THE IDEA OF A COLD/MOSTLY DRY SYSTEM TO DROP INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FROM WESTERN CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE AN INLAND TRACK SO MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED. HAVE KEPT MINIMAL POPS GOING BUT HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE PRETTY CHILLY ALSO. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO HAMMER OUT THE DETAILS. && .AVIATION...SKC-FEW CIRRUS LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL SITES...WITH SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TUESDAY MORNING...THEN READINGS WILL SLOWLY WARM A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. A STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WINDS. && .CLIMATE...LOOKS LIKE THANKSGIVING 2009 WILL BE DRY AND WARM ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE PREVIOUS TWO THANKSGIVINGS HAVE BEEN WET. IN 2008 WIDESPREAD RAIN FELL ACROSS THE AREA WHILE IN 2007 THERE WERE SCATTERED SHOWERS. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
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