NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS

2007 FIRE WEATHER REPORT

 

RED FLAG WARNING VERIFICATION

 

                                                      Synoptic            Lightning              Total

Warnings Issued

154

4

158

Warnings that verified

99

4

103

Warnings that did not verify

55

0

55

Unwarned Events

10

0

10

Average Warning Lead Time

10.4 hours

4.5 hours

10.4 hours

POD  (Probability of Detection)

.91

1.00

.91

FAR  (False Alarm Ratio)

.36

0.00

.35

CSI  (Critical Success Index)

.60

1.00

.61

For both POD and CSI, 1.00 would be perfect, while for FAR, 0.00 would be perfect.

Watches Issued

98

4

102

Watches leading to Warnings

93

4

97

Average Watch Lead Time

 25.5 hours

15 hours

24.6 hours

 

 

SPOT FORECAST STATISTICS   (# of forecasts issued)

 

 

Wildfire

Prescribed

Total

Arizona

14

68

82

Nevada

15

16

31

California

18

33

51

Total

117

47

164

 

 

IMET DISPATCHES

 

3 Incidents

33 total IMET days out of the office on incident support

 

Incident Name

Agency

Location

Dates

Neola North Fire

Uintah and Ouray BIA

Uinta mountains and foothills north of Neola, Utah

6/30/07 – 7/11/07

WSA Lightning Complex

Warm Springs Agency  BIA

East slopes of Oregon Cascades below  Mt. Jefferson

7/17/07 – 8/1/07

Tar Fire

 

Cal Fire

10 miles southwest of Avenal, CA

8/12/07 – 8/16/07

 

 

COURSES TAUGHT OR ATTENDED

 

S-290 – multi-agency, Red Rock Fire Station, Las Vegas, NV, April 17 & 18, 2007

IMET Workshop attended by Jim Harrison, Fire Weather Program Leader and IMET