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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

 
 FXUS65 KSLC 201630
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1030 AM MDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST COAST STATES
WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY TUESDAY. THE CYCLONIC
NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING RIDGE WILL USHER A COUPLE OF
WEAK VORTICITY LOBES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.

ONE LOBE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN UTAH AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE
GENERATING LITTLE MORE THAN A BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE GOES LIFTED INDEX IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS
THE LI VALUES NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF UTAH.
THIS MODEST INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH WEAK DYNAMIC LIFT COULD
GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

NORTH OF THIS FIRST VORTICITY LOBE ENOUGH MOISTURE EXISTS FOR
AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILDUPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. DYNAMIC
LIFT LOOKS TO BE EITHER WEAK OR ABSENT THIS AFTERNOON...SO ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF AND LIGHT.

CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL UTAH FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE
UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND
THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY MORNING...THEN TURN NORTH
INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN NEVADA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN SOME MOISTURE NORTH...WITH THE FIRST NOTABLE
INCREASE IN PWAT VALUES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST
UTAH THEN ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN UTAH ON THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCE
AT ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH VORTICITY LOBES ROTATING NORTH FROM THE PARENT
LOW AND UNDERNEATH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.

NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MINIMAL AT THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 17-
19Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&




PUBLIC...CONGER
AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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