The Marine Status Initiative is a Federal Aviation Administration funded research project whose objective is to improve cloud forecast guidance in the approach zone into San Francisco International Airport. MIT Lincoln Laboratory is the technical lead for the project, in collaboration with San Jose State University, the University of Quebec at Montreal, and our Center Weather Service Unit.

The project relies on weather observations from a network of sensors surrounding the Bay Area. In addition to hourly METAR and supplemental surface observations, the data set includes information on the height of the marine inversion from acoustical sodars at SFO and SQL, pyranometers which measure the amount of incoming solar radiation, and sonic anemometers for three dimensional wind measurements. The information is collected at 15-minute intervals and made available for display via an internet web site.

The display is divided into two main sections. The section on the left displays current observational data along with 1 km resolution GOES-10 visible pictures. These pictures are normalized to eliminate the effects of the changing sun angle on the brightness of the clouds.

EXAMPLE OF STRATUS DISPLAY

CLICK HERE FOR CURRENT MARINE STRATUS DISPLAY (Password Required)

The section on the right provides automated forecast guidance information that forecasts the time the stratus clouds will burn off in the approach zone at SFO. This guidance is divided into five parts:

1) COBEL is a high resolution one dimension column model.

2) LSFM is a Local Statistical Forecast Model which generates a forecast clearing time based on statistical regression from observational sites in the local area.

3) RSFM is a Regional Statistical Forecast Model which uses statistical regression from observational sites throughout central California.

4) SSFM is a Satellite Statistical Forecast Model based on statistical correlation of cloudiness as viewed from GOES-10 visible satellite imagery.

5) The Consensus Forecast provides a single unified forecast based on evaluation of type of day, confidence, and weight given to each of the other four forecasts.