Flagstaff, AZ
Weather Forecast Office
FXUS65 KFGZ 272045 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 145 PM MST Thu May 27 2021 .SYNOPSIS...Mild daytime temperatures and afternoon southwest breezes are expected through the holiday weekend. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return for Memorial Day with lesser chances thereafter. && .DISCUSSION...Not many changes made to the forecast this cycle. Mid-level cloud cover has increased early this afternoon along much of the Mogollon Rim, Black Mesa, and the Chuska Mountains. Don`t be surprised to see a weak rain shower across the northern portions of Navajo and Apache counties within the next few hours as well. Winds are behaving this afternoon from the southwest. Under zonal flow, expect the typical, seasonal afternoon and early evening winds with gusts around 20-25 mph through Friday. Winds look to increase a bit (gusts 25-30 mph) across northern Arizona for Saturday afternoon as a weak, shortwave trough begins to push through the southwest exiting the region by early next week. Temperatures for the most part will be around normal through the weekend with "coolest" day of the week on Monday, depending on cloud cover and showers. Dry conditions will continue through most of the holiday weekend with chances for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms returning to northern Arizona by Memorial Day. As of now, model guidance shows some mid to upper-level moisture wrapping around the weak, passing low pressure towards the south by the afternoon hours with some hints of instability in the model soundings. Thus, confidence has increased in precipitation potential with slight chances across much of Coconino, Navajo, and Apache counties. Better chances exist along the New Mexico border due to more moisture availability and instability. Chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms could continue into Tuesday and Wednesday, however confidence is low at this time. A ridge of high pressure looks to strengthen over the west coast thereafter resulting in increasing temperatures and less chances for precipitation for the remainder of next week. && .AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Look for VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. There will be some afternoon cumulus development over the high terrain today, but otherwise mostly clear skies. Surface winds decreasing by early evening, then becoming southwest 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts around 18Z Friday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Look for warm and dry weather with locally breezy southwest to west winds each afternoon through Saturday. Afternoon humidity will remain less than 10 percent with the Haines Index reaching 5 to 6. Sunday through Tuesday...Warm, dry and breezy weather will continue Sunday. A slight increase in humidity will lead to some low shower and thunderstorm chances Monday and Tuesday with warm conditions. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && PUBLIC...LaGuardia AVIATION...JJ FIRE WEATHER...JJ For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
