Flagstaff, AZ
Weather Forecast Office
FXUS65 KFGZ 250330 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 830 PM MST Mon May 24 2021 .SYNOPSIS...Daytime temperatures will be mild over the next several days. Expect breezy southwest winds each afternoon from Tuesday through the weekend. && .UPDATE...Temperatures at 8 PM were running anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. With the dry airmass and light winds, it will still be a colder than average night for late May, but not quite as chilly as last night. These trends are covered in our current forecasts and no updates are needed this evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION /200 PM MST/...Very little change was needed to the previous forecast as a fairly benign weather pattern remains in place. Clear skies, light winds, and a very dry airmass in place will lead to another round of chilly overnight temperatures. Generally, low temperatures by Tuesday morning will be around 2-4 degrees warmer than what we saw this morning. This will mean sub-freezing temperatures across portions of the high country so be sure to protect any sensitive vegetation. A few disturbances will pass to our north later Tuesday through Friday bringing the typical breezy southwest winds each afternoon. Heights will remain relatively consistent through this period with daytime highs near normal to around 5 degrees above normal. There will be some mid and high level cloud cover later Tuesday and Wednesday, but otherwise expect sunny skies. For the weekend, latest model guidance continues to indicate the potential for a weak trough and associated cut-off low to develop over the Southwest US. Ahead of the trough, an increase in wind speeds is likely. The system is nowhere near the strength of what we saw this past weekend. Low end wind advisory/critical fire weather conditions most likely at this time. && .AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Light winds overnight becoming southwest 10-15 kts Tuesday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Expect dry weather, warming daytime temperatures, and typical afternoon breezes through Wednesday. Afternoon humidity will mostly remain below 10 percent. Afternoon Haines Index will reach 5 or 6 for most areas. Thursday through Saturday...Little change is anticipated with dry and warm conditions continuing. Breezy southwest winds each afternoon with slightly stronger speeds on Saturday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && PUBLIC...JJ/TPS AVIATION...JJ FIRE WEATHER...JJ For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
