Flagstaff, AZ
Weather Forecast Office
FXUS65 KFGZ 271614 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 914 AM MST Thu May 27 2021 .SYNOPSIS...Mild daytime temperatures and afternoon southwest breezes are expected through the weekend. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible beginning next week. && .UPDATE...Clear sky conditions with light winds this morning across northern Arizona. Current temperatures are already a few degrees away from yesterday`s highs in multiple locations. Expect warming to continue through this afternoon. Models continue to show some mid-level moisture this afternoon which most likely will result in scattered clouds with the slightest chance for a sprinkle or two around the Black Mesa and Chuska Mountains. The remainder of the forecast looks to be on track with mild temperatures and afternoon, southwest breezes through the weekend. && .PREV DISCUSSION /320 AM MST/...Infrared satellite imagery is showing decreasing sky cover across the Four Corners region this morning as mid- level clouds exit the region. Mid-level moisture and daytime heating will initiate a period of mostly to partly sunny skies later today, especially for areas along and east- northeast of high terrain. There is the slightest potential for a sprinkle or two over the Black Mesa and Chuska Mountains later this afternoon. Otherwise today, mild near-normal temperatures and light southwesterly afternoon breezes are expected. Mild temperatures and light afternoon southwesterly breezes to persist under zonal westerly flow aloft through Friday. Operational deterministic guidance is showing a shift to more southwesterly flow aloft by Saturday due to an area of low pressure off the California coast. Gusts of 20-30 mph are likely Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Cluster ensemble analysis is showing the area of low pressure potentially setting up over far southern Arizona and northwestern Mexico by Monday afternoon or evening. The result could be an increase in surface dew points across much of northern Arizona and enough mid-level moisture for a return of showers or thunderstorms, mainly in eastern Arizona. Kept with the blended guidance in this longer-term period for mentionable chances of precipitation mid- next week, especially in the afternoon and early evening periods. Confidence at this point is low to moderate in this set up as any variation in the center of low pressure will greatly influence the availability of moisture for potential showers or storms next week. && .AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Look for VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. There will be some afternoon cumulus development over the high terrain today, but otherwise mostly clear skies. Surface winds becoming southwesterly at 5-15 kt gusting to 20 kts by the afternoon. Winds becoming light again by early evening. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Look for warm and dry weather with locally breezy southwest to west winds each afternoon through Friday. Afternoon humidity will remain less than 15 percent with the Haines Index reaching 5 to 6 for many areas. Saturday through Monday...Warm, dry and breezy weather will continue. Slightly stronger southwest winds are forecast over the weekend. Isolated rain showers are possible Monday afternoon. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && PUBLIC...LaGuardia/NL AVIATION...JJ FIRE WEATHER...JJ For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
