Flagstaff, AZ
Weather Forecast Office
FXUS65 KFGZ 230406 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 906 PM MST Sat May 22 2021 .SYNOPSIS...A cold night is in store as winds decrease. Lighter winds and warming temperatures are in store beginning Sunday and lasting through much of next week. && .UPDATE...An embedded shortwave in the western United States low is moving eastward through Arizona this evening. Strong winds developed once again from around Flagstaff eastward this afternoon, but are gradually diminishing this evening. This was mostly a dry low for our area, but there were a few showers over northern Apache County this afternoon, and even some snow showers in far northwest Coconino County where Jacob Lake has some very light accumulation. A few snow showers will continue over the Kaibab Plateau for another couple of hours, but generally clearing skies across the region. As winds decrease, temperatures are expected to plummet to well below freezing for many areas above 6000 feet, with near freezing values as low as 5000 feet including Winslow. Best to cover outdoor gardens and bring tender potted plants indoors overnight. && .PREV DISCUSSION /155 PM MST/...A strong, broad area of low pressure has continued to dominate the weather across northern Arizona today with gusty southwest winds and critical fire weather conditions. The base of the trough is rotating through the area this afternoon helping to keep the pressure gradient tightened especially across eastern Arizona. As expected, the highest wind speeds have been in this area where gusts between 50-60 mph have been reported. 60+ mph gusts have been reported at the Springerville Airport. Farther to the west, winds have been weaker but still gusting in the 30-40 mph range. Red Flag Warning and Wind Advisory products remain in effect through 8 PM MST this evening. A very dry airmass in place, clear skies, and weakening winds will result in freezing temperatures across much of the high country overnight into Sunday morning. Some of our colder high elevation locations like Tusayan and Bellemont could even fall into the upper teens. Be sure to take the necessary precautions and cover your outdoor gardens or bring plants inside. From Sunday through the remainder of the forecast period, a fairly benign weather pattern is expected. With the dry air remaining in place, expect continued chilly mornings early in the week. Area gardeners especially across the high country will want to continue to take precautions by covering sensitive vegetation or bringing it inside. Daytime temperatures will warm over the next several days, reaching near to slightly above normal values by Tuesday. Precipitation chances look slim for the next 7-10 days. && .AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Gusty southwest winds in eastern Arizona this evening will decrease by 07z. Clearing skies and light winds setup tonight. Southwest winds increase after 17z to 7-12 kts and gusts of 20 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Much lighter southwest winds and dry conditions will occur through the period. Tuesday through Thursday...Temperatures will warm to near normal. Light afternoon southwest breezes and dry weather will persist. Expect Haines Index values of 5 or 6 along and north of the Rim. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && PUBLIC...JJ/TPS AVIATION...NL FIRE WEATHER...NL For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
