Flagstaff, AZ
Weather Forecast Office
FXUS65 KFGZ 221605 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 905 AM MST Sat May 22 2021 .SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system will continue to bring strong southwest winds today with a fire weather threat persisting in some areas. Lighter winds and warming temperatures are in store beginning Sunday and lasting through much of next week. && .DISCUSSION...The forecast is on track this morning with another round of strong southwest winds and critical fire weather conditions across the area. Winds have already begun to increase across eastern Arizona with 40-55 mph gusts being reported in locations such as Springerville, Taylor, Show Low, and Greer. Look for winds to continue to increase through the remainder of the morning and into the afternoon. The system responsible for the strong winds over the past couple days will push north and east of the area later tonight into Sunday. A very dry airmass in place, clear skies, and weakening winds will result in freezing temperatures across much of the high country overnight into Sunday morning. Some of our colder high elevation locations like Tusayan and Bellemont could even fall into the upper teens. Be sure to take the necessary precautions and cover your outdoor gardens or bring plants inside. Much quieter weather is forecast for next week. The current forecast handles all of this well and no major updates are needed this morning. && .PREV DISCUSSION /323 AM MST/...Unseasonably strong low pressure remains positioned over Nevada this morning and will continue to bring one more day of strong wind to northern Arizona before exiting. The base of the trough is forecast to swing through Arizona during the daytime today ensuring tightened pressure gradients and strong, gusty southwest winds. Wind Advisories remain in effect from the Mogollon Rim northward where gusts will reach 45 to 55 mph. A swath of stronger winds is forecast to develop from the White Mountains into the adjacent Little Colorado River Valley where gusts up to 60 mph are likely and High Wind Warnings have been issued. Deep mixing of stronger winds aloft (50 - 55 kts) should easily mix down to the surface supporting the stronger gusts. These peak winds are forecast during the late afternoon hours. Eastern Arizona will also see areas of critical fire weather develop in the lower elevations north of the rim today and Red Flag Warnings remain in effect. A few isolated showers cannot be ruled out across far northeast Arizona this afternoon but wetting rain is unlikely. The trough finally pushes north and east of Arizona on Sunday giving way to much lighter winds and warming temperatures. Sunday morning lows will be quite cold with a hard freeze forecast across much of the high country. A much quieter weather pattern develops next week with temperatures warming near to and above average. Winds overall will be much lighter with typical spring time afternoon breezes each day. Nothing in the way of precipitation through the forecast next week. && .AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Mainly VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Strong south to southwest winds with gusts to 35-45 knots in eastern Arizona. Between 19z and 02z, blowing dust may create localized areas of MVFR/IFR visibilities from a KINW-KSJN line north to the Utah border. Winds across the region will become light west to east between 03Z and 07Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Strong southwest winds will return today, mostly east of the I-17/Hwy-89 corridor. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for this afternoon and evening in eastern zones for critical fire weather conditions. Sunday will see lighter west to southwest winds and dry conditions. Monday through Wednesday...Temperatures will warm early next week with dry conditions. Breezy winds return by Tuesday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ013-014-017. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ109>114-139- 140. Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ009>012-015-016- 038>040. && PUBLIC...TPS/MCT AVIATION...DB FIRE WEATHER...ET For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
