Flagstaff, AZ
Weather Forecast Office
FXUS65 KFGZ 221023 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 323 AM MST Sat May 22 2021 .SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system will continue to bring strong southwest winds today with a fire weather threat continuing in some areas. Lighter winds and warming temperatures are in store beginning Sunday and lasting through much of next week. && .DISCUSSION...Unseasonably strong low pressure remains positioned over Nevada this morning and will continue to bring one more day of strong wind to northern Arizona before exiting. The base of the trough is forecast to swing through Arizona during the daytime today ensuring tightened pressure gradients and strong, gusty southwest winds. Wind Advisories remain in effect from the Mogollon Rim northward where gusts will reach 45 to 55 mph. A swath of stronger winds is forecast to develop from the White Mountains into the adjacent Little Colorado River Valley where gusts up to 60 mph are likely and High Wind Warnings have been issued. Deep mixing of stronger winds aloft (50 - 55 kts) should easily mix down to the surface supporting the stronger gusts. These peak winds are forecast during the late afternoon hours. Eastern Arizona will also see areas of critical fire weather develop in the lower elevations north of the rim today and Red Flag Warnings remain in effect. A few isolated showers cannot be ruled out across far northeast Arizona this afternoon but wetting rain is unlikely. The trough finally pushes north and east of Arizona on Sunday giving way to much lighter winds and warming temperatures. Sunday morning lows will be quite cold with a hard freeze forecast across much of the high country. A much quieter weather pattern develops next week with temperatures warming near to and above average. Winds overall will be much lighter with typical spring time afternoon breezes each day. Nothing in the way of precipitation through the forecast next week. && .AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Mainly VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Low-level wind shear is likely along and northeast of higher terrain into early morning. Strong south to southwest winds return after 16Z with gusts again of 35-45 knots in eastern Arizona. Blowing dust could create localized areas of MVFR visibilities near and northeast of a KINW-KSJN line between 19z and 02z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Strong southwest winds will return Saturday, mostly east of the I-17/Hwy-89 corridor. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Saturday afternoon and evening in eastern zones for critical fire weather conditions. Sunday will see lighter west to southwest winds and dry conditions. Monday through Wednesday...Temperatures will warm early next week with dry conditions. Breezy winds return by Tuesday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ013-014-017. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ109>114-139-140. Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ009>012-015-016-038>040. && PUBLIC...MCT AVIATION...ET FIRE WEATHER...ET For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
