Flagstaff, AZ
Weather Forecast Office
FXUS65 KFGZ 220409 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 909 PM MST Fri May 21 2021 .SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system will bring strong southwest winds through Saturday with a fire weather threat continuing in some areas. Lighter winds and warming temperatures are in store for Sunday and early next week. && .UPDATE...Quite a day of weather across northern Arizona! A little of everything - widespread light to moderate rain this morning for many areas (snow on the San Francisco Peaks), extensive blowing dust in northeast Arizona, damaging wind from Flagstaff down to the White Mountains, critical fire weather north and west of Flagstaff, and even a few thunderstorms in eastern AZ this afternoon. As of 9 PM, the Wind Advisories and Red Flag Warnings for today have expired. But the unusually strong low pressure system that brought all the weather today will only inch toward our area tomorrow. So expect another very windy day from around Flagstaff eastward where a Wind Advisory is in effect. Another round of critical fire weather in northeast AZ as well. One thing we are watching closely is the threat of some wind gusts reaching High Wind criteria (58 mph) Saturday afternoon, mainly on the northern edge of the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains, including Show Low, Eagar, Springerville, Snowflake-Taylor. Will take a look at evening model data and make any adjustments if needed. && .PREV DISCUSSION /242 PM MST/...A strong low pressure system remains entrenched across the western states. This same system delivered some welcome showers earlier on Friday along with unwelcome wind. Many gust into the 50 mph range with a few gusts over 60 mph mid afternoon Friday. Local dense blowing dust has been reported with visibility down to less than 1/4 mile in spots. As a consequence of the wind power outages, a few tree blow downs and minor damage to buildings has been reported. Winds will calm down overnight but remain locally gusty near and downwind of terrain features at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. For Saturday...The low will continue to spin essentially in place with another round of strong winds. Pressure gradients should weaken some but will still be capable of delivering wind gusts to around 50 mph. Ares of blowing dust are expected across portions of the Navajo/Hopi nations. In addition, a drier air mass will punch across Arizona with fire weather conditions remaining a concern. In places that received ample rain the fire weather threat will be minimal but many other locations only received a sprinkle to a few hundredths of an inch. The area of primary wind and fire weather concern will be from about Flagstaff north and east. Blowing dust is expected Saturday afternoon. From Sunday onward...A dry pattern ahead. The western states low exits Arizona with warming temperatures and lighter winds through Tuesday. Later in the week a trough will begin to set up along the west coast which would favor gusty afternoon winds and elevated fire weather conditions. && .AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Mainly VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Overnight winds decrease to around 5-15 knots for most terminals. Low-level wind shear with turbulence is likely along and northeast of higher terrain into early morning. Strong south to southwest winds return after 16Z with gusts again of 35-45 knots in eastern Arizona. Blowing dust could create localized areas of MVFR visibilities near and northeast of a KINW-KSJN line between 19z and 02z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Breezy winds will continue tonight northeast of the White Mountains. Expect strong southwest winds Saturday, mostly east of the I-17/Hwy-89 corridor. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Saturday afternoon and evening in eastern zones for critical fire weather conditions. Sunday will see lighter west to southwest winds and dry conditions. Monday through Wednesday...Temperatures will warm early next week with dry conditions. Breezy winds return by Tuesday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Saturday FOR AZZ109>114- 139-140. Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Saturday FOR AZZ009>017-039- 040. && PUBLIC...JJ/McCollum AVIATION...NL FIRE WEATHER...NL For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
