Flagstaff, AZ
Weather Forecast Office
FXUS65 KFGZ 270343 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 843 PM MST Wed May 26 2021 .SYNOPSIS...Warm daytime temperatures and afternoon southwest breezes are expected through the end of the week. For the weekend, southwest winds look to increase with the potential for critical fire weather conditions. && .DISCUSSION...No changes to the forecast necessary as skies continue to clear across northern Arizona. && .PREV DISCUSSION /152 PM MST/...A weak trough of low pressure is moving across The Desert Southwest today. This trough is tapping into a stream of high level moisture that originates south of Hawai`i. This will all move to the east overnight tonight and on Thursday. For Thursday through the weekend, we will continue to see afternoon breezes as several weak disturbances move across the western US. On Saturday and Sunday, southwest winds will increase as a deeper trough moves across California on Saturday and Arizona on Sunday. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above average through the period. With conditions remaining very dry through the holiday weekend and a period of near critical fire weather is possible. Be sure to use caution and abide by all fire restrictions. By Monday, models begin to diverge on the solution of the trough moving over Arizona. The GFS wants to drop it south over Sonora and Chihuahua while the EC takes over Baja and then off the Baja Spur by Thursday of next week. Should the trough remain in place a bit longer, enough moisture could be drawn over our eastern zones for some isolated light shower development. Confidence is low on exactly how the pattern will play out next week. && .AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Skies will continue to clear from west to east tonight, expect VFR conditions for the 24 hour TAF forecast period. Sfc winds light overnight, becmg SW-W5-15g20kts aft 17Z Thursday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Look for warm and dry weather, with locally breezy southwest to west winds each afternoon through Friday. Afternoon humidity will remain less than 15 percent, with the Haines Index reaching 5 to 6 for many areas. Saturday through Monday...Warm, dry and breezy weather will continue. Slightly stronger southwest winds are forecast over the weekend. Isolated rain showers are possible Monday afternoon. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && PUBLIC...JM/MAS AVIATION...Peterson FIRE WEATHER...TPS/Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
