Flagstaff, AZ
Weather Forecast Office
FXUS65 KFGZ 261631 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 931 AM MST Wed May 26 2021 .SYNOPSIS...Quiet weather with warm temperatures and afternoon southwest breezes is expected through the end of the week. For the weekend, southwest winds look to increase with the potential for critical fire weather conditions. && .UPDATE...Mid and high level clouds will continue over much of northern Arizona through the afternoon...with clearing from west to east this evening. The cloud cover will help keep temperatures lower than what we saw yesterday. The 12Z sounding showed stronger winds just above the surface than what we saw yesterday. We will see that wind mix to the surface later today with stronger breezes than we saw yesterday. && .PREV DISCUSSION /325 AM MST/...A mid to high level cloud deck has streamed in as expected across much of northern Arizona. This is keeping our overnight lows mild across the area. Expect cloud cover to continue through the morning before clearing west to east through Wednesday evening. A weak disturbance will pass by the area today bringing some afternoon breezes with gusts 20-25 mph. For Thursday through the weekend, we will continue to see afternoon breezes as several disturbances move across the western US. On Saturday and Sunday, southwest winds will increase as a deeper trough moves across our area. Temperatures will remain warm through the period. With conditions remaining very dry through the holiday weekend, we could see a period of near critical fire weather. Be sure to use caution and abide by any local fire restrictions. Models differ on their interpretation of the pattern early next week. The weekend low may linger over the area for a bit early next week as the subtropical jet stream flow becomes weak. There is good agreement that a ridge will build in across the Pacific and begin to slide in across our area by the midweek with differences on timing. This is reflected well in WPC cluster analysis while highlighting the uncertainty on exactly how far east this will be by Wednesday. Should the trough remain in place a bit longer ,as some long range models depict, we could see some isolated light shower development in the eastern portion of our area Wednesday as a push of weak moisture from the east creeps in. A few ensemble members do contain some light precipitation chances. Confidence is low on exactly how the pattern will play out next week. && .AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours under varying amounts of higher level clouds. Southwest winds 10-20 kts with gusts to 25 kts diminishing after sunset. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Look for warm and dry weather with breezy south to southwest winds each afternoon through Thursday. Afternoon humidity will remain less than 15 percent with the Haines Index reaching 5 to 6 for many areas. Friday through Sunday...Warm, dry and breezy weather will continue. Slightly stronger southwest winds are forecast over the weekend. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && PUBLIC...MAS/ET AVIATION...TPS FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
